Fitch Ratings has affirmed 13 classes of
RATING ACTIONS
Entity / Debt
Rating
Prior
CGCMT 2015-GC29
A-3 17323VAY1
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-4 17323VAZ8
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-S 17323VBC8
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
B 17323VBD6
LT
AA-sf
Affirmed
AA-sf
C 17323VBE4
LT
A-sf
Affirmed
A-sf
D 17323VAA3
LT
BBB-sf
Affirmed
BBB-sf
E 17323VAC9
LT
BBsf
Affirmed
BBsf
F 17323VAE5
LT
B-sf
Affirmed
B-sf
Page
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VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Increased Loss Expectations: Overall pool loss expectations have increased slightly since the last rating action primarily due to higher losses on the Parkchester Commercial and Papago Arroyo loans. While the majority of the pool has exhibited stable performance and have recovered from pandemic lows, Fitch has identified six loans (13.8% of the pool) as Fitch Loans of Concern (FLOCs). There are no delinquent or specially serviced loans. Fitch's current ratings incorporate a base case loss of 5.9%.
The largest increase in loss since Fitch's last review is Parkchester Commercial (6.5%), collateralized by a 541,232-sf, retail/office mixed-use property located in the
Occupancy has remained relatively stable at the property and is 90% as of
The second largest increase in loss since Fitch's last review is Papago Arroyo (3.1%), collateralized by a 279,504 sf, suburban office property in
In
Improved Credit Enhancement (CE): CE has increased since issuance due to loan payoffs and scheduled amortization. As of the
Property Type Concentration: Approximately 34.8% of the loans in the pool are secured by office properties, 19.4% retail properties, 19.4% mixed use, and 16.1% multifamily.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
Sensitivity factors that lead to downgrades include an increase in pool-level losses from underperforming or specially serviced loans. Downgrades to the 'AA-sf' and 'AAAsf' categories are not expected given their high CE relative to expected losses and continued amortization, but may occur if interest shortfalls occur or if a high proportion of the pool defaults and expected losses increase considerably.
Downgrades to the 'A-sf' and 'BBB-sf' categories would occur should overall pool losses increase significantly and/or one or more large loans have an outsized loss, which would erode CE. Downgrades to the 'BBsf' and 'B-sf' categories would occur should loss expectations increase and if performance of the FLOCs or loans vulnerable to the pandemic fail to stabilize or additional loans default and/or transfer to the special servicer.
Fitch has identified both a baseline and a worse-than-expected, adverse stagflation scenario based on fallout from the
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
Sensitivity factors that lead to upgrades would include stable to improved asset performance coupled with pay down and/or defeasance. Upgrades to the 'A-sf' and 'AA-sf' categories would likely occur with significant improvement in CE and/or defeasance; however, adverse selection, increased concentrations and/or further underperformance of the FLOCs could cause this trend to reverse.
Upgrades to the 'BBB-sf' category would also consider these factors, but would be limited based on sensitivity to concentrations or the potential for future concentrations.
Classes would not be upgraded above 'Asf' if there were likelihood for interest shortfalls. Upgrades to the 'BBsf' and 'B-sf' category are not likely until the later years in a transaction and only if the performance of the remaining pool is stable and there is sufficient CE to the classes.
Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario
International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
ESG Considerations
Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg.
Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
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