Financials Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd.

Equities

2264

JP3926800008

Food Processing

Delayed Japan Exchange Other stock markets 10:30:00 2024-04-29 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
3,066 ^JPY	+0.56%		+0.33%	+12.39%

Feb. 09	Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd. Revises Dividend Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending March 31, 2024	CI
Jan. 18	Morinaga Milk Industry Relocates Headquarters to a Newer Building in Minato-ku, Tokyo	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	185,779	206,824	288,024	236,418	215,789	264,625	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	290,781	299,301	373,050	299,851	293,074	289,632	294,577	281,447
P/E ratio	13.3 x	11.1 x	15.4 x	7.61 x	12.8 x	4.27 x	13.9 x	13.2 x
Yield	1.46%	1.44%	1.2%	1.53%	1.89%	1.97%	2.2%	2.41%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.32 x	0.35 x	0.49 x	0.47 x	0.41 x	0.48 x	0.47 x	0.46 x
EV / Revenue	0.5 x	0.51 x	0.64 x	0.6 x	0.56 x	0.53 x	0.53 x	0.49 x
EV / EBITDA	7.23 x	6.83 x	7.56 x	5.89 x	6.45 x	5.86 x	5.81 x	5.33 x
EV / FCF	-14 x	-54.6 x	28.2 x	6.16 x	-48.2 x	4.37 x	21.7 x	15.8 x
FCF Yield	-7.13%	-1.83%	3.55%	16.2%	-2.07%	22.9%	4.62%	6.35%
Price to Book	1.11 x	1.14 x	1.44 x	1.15 x	0.97 x	0.99 x	0.94 x	0.9 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	98,950	98,959	98,977	90,408	90,477	86,791	-	-
Reference price ²	1,878	2,090	2,910	2,615	2,385	3,049	3,049	3,049
Announcement Date	5/13/19	5/14/20	5/13/21	5/13/22	5/15/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	583,582	590,892	583,550	503,354	525,603	548,027	560,304	570,818
EBITDA ¹	40,223	43,800	49,351	50,894	45,425	49,414	50,733	52,789
EBIT ¹	22,331	25,359	28,867	29,792	23,939	28,082	29,182	30,422
Operating Margin	3.83%	4.29%	4.95%	5.92%	4.55%	5.12%	5.21%	5.33%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	20,230	26,506	25,998	48,296	23,719	91,566	27,730	29,256
Net income ¹	14,017	18,656	18,741	33,782	16,875	62,545	18,898	19,803
Net margin	2.4%	3.16%	3.21%	6.71%	3.21%	11.41%	3.37%	3.47%
EPS ²	141.7	188.6	189.4	343.7	186.6	714.7	219.8	230.3
Free Cash Flow ¹	-20,741	-5,486	13,239	48,639	-6,081	66,246	13,600	17,865
FCF margin	-3.55%	-0.93%	2.27%	9.66%	-1.16%	12.09%	2.43%	3.13%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	26.83%	95.57%	-	134.06%	26.81%	33.84%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	70.64%	143.98%	-	105.92%	71.97%	90.21%
Dividend per Share ²	27.50	30.00	35.00	40.00	45.00	60.00	67.00	73.60
Announcement Date	5/13/19	5/14/20	5/13/21	5/13/22	5/15/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	312,798	-	305,316	-	133,151	261,346	127,072	114,936	130,300	139,662	269,962	135,262	120,379	139,738	146,842	286,580	136,661	123,956	-	-	-	-
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	7,159	11,626	13,667	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	15,959	9,400	16,939	11,928	10,876	20,730	6,883	2,179	6,289	8,331	14,620	5,840	3,479	9,645	11,211	20,856	7,159	1,472	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	5.1%	-	5.55%	-	8.17%	7.93%	5.42%	1.9%	4.83%	5.97%	5.42%	4.32%	2.89%	6.9%	7.63%	7.28%	5.24%	1.19%	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	14,740	-	16,542	-	10,864	24,496	5,708	18,092	5,028	8,218	13,246	5,019	5,454	75,608	10,837	86,445	5,563	-680	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	10,063	-	11,656	-	7,978	17,242	4,097	12,443	2,942	5,536	8,478	3,650	4,747	52,942	6,232	59,174	3,624	-182.2	-	-	-	-
Net margin	3.22%	-	3.82%	-	5.99%	6.6%	3.22%	10.83%	2.26%	3.96%	3.14%	2.7%	3.94%	37.89%	4.24%	20.65%	2.65%	-0.15%	-	-	-	-
EPS	101.7	-	117.8	-	80.50	174.2	41.38	128.2	32.54	61.23	93.78	40.33	52.47	588.4	75.38	663.8	46.92	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	60.00
Announcement Date	11/7/19	5/14/20	11/11/20	5/13/21	11/11/21	11/11/21	2/9/22	5/13/22	8/9/22	11/10/22	11/10/22	2/10/23	5/15/23	8/9/23	11/9/23	11/9/23	2/9/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	105,002	92,477	85,026	63,433	77,285	25,008	29,952	16,822
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.61 x	2.111 x	1.723 x	1.246 x	1.701 x	0.5061 x	0.5904 x	0.3187 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-20,741	-5,486	13,239	48,639	-6,081	66,247	13,600	17,865
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	8.6%	10.7%	9.8%	16.7%	7.9%	26%	6.99%	7.01%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.46%	5.96%	6.78%	6.83%	5.34%	12.2%	3.55%	3.8%
Assets ¹	256,677	313,127	276,619	494,651	315,814	512,664	532,332	521,142
Book Value Per Share ²	1,692	1,832	2,014	2,277	2,464	3,088	3,240	3,396
Cash Flow per Share ²	323.0	375.0	396.0	558.0	421.0	954.0	461.0	475.0
Capex ¹	40,578	34,695	25,091	18,878	28,910	19,300	27,500	23,250
Capex / Sales	6.95%	5.87%	4.3%	3.75%	5.5%	3.52%	4.91%	4.07%
Announcement Date	5/13/19	5/14/20	5/13/21	5/13/22	5/15/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

3,049 JPY

Average target price

3,326 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+9.08%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Food Processing

	1st Jan change	Capi.
MORINAGA MILK INDUSTRY CO., LTD.	+12.87%	1.68B
NESTLÉ S.A.	-5.57%	266B
MONDELEZ INTERNATIONAL, INC.	-0.83%	94.98B
KRAFT HEINZ	+4.52%	46.39B
GENERAL MILLS, INC.	+7.81%	39.99B
DANONE	-0.03%	39.95B
THE HERSHEY COMPANY	+3.23%	38.02B
ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND COMPANY	-15.97%	30.16B
NESTLÉ INDIA LIMITED	-5.60%	28.72B
ASSOCIATED BRITISH FOODS PLC	+12.13%	24.54B

Other Food Processing