NEWMARK GROUP, INC.

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Build It and They Will Come: Major Markets Exhibit Common Dynamics in Spec Construction Leasing

01/26/2022 | 11:17am EDT
Build It and They Will Come: Major Markets Exhibit Common Dynamics in Spec Construction Leasing

The sharp imbalance between supply and demand for new warehouses has significantly shortened the length of time between warehouse delivery and stabilization. This report explores the dynamics driving this trend, and speculative warehouse construction and stabilization metrics in 15 key U.S. logistics locations.

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The sharp imbalance between supply and demand in the U.S. industrial sector is driving insatiable tenant interest in new-construction availabilities, which are in short supply. A survey of 23 key industrial markets found:

  • Speculative construction deliveries fell significantly in 2021 with developers citing pandemic-related labor disruptions, sourcing materials, lengthening entitlement periods, and community pushback to warehouse development as the primary causes.
  • Demand for modern warehouse space to improve supply chain efficiency and meet evolving consumption habits has never been higher, particularly from third-party logistics, consumer goods and e-commerce companies, which represented the majority of new-construction leasing.
  • Developers are attuned to occupier needs and design specs for new warehouses are quite uniform across the country: new speculative construction offers tenants with immediate-occupancy requirements the agility to move in swiftly, contributing to quicker leasing decisions.

These dynamics are reflected in the shortened duration between warehouse delivery and stabilization*. For buildings that have reached stabilization, the average length of time between a speculative warehouse delivering to the market and being fully leased was less than a single quarter in 2021, with many preleasing well before delivery. This duration is down from an average of 3.9 quarters in 2015. Across the markets surveyed, 25% of spec space delivered in 2021 had yet to reach stabilization by year-end, the majority of which delivered in the second half of the year. Some landlords of newly-delivered properties are delaying leasing decisions to achieve the most current market rents - in some regions with extremely tight vacancy and high demand, the velocity of rent growth is such that a moment after a lease signs, the contract rate is already under-market.


The construction pipeline rose to half a billion square feet underway in Q4 2021, the most on record. Speculative warehouses account for approximately 77% of that volume, in line with the 5-year average share. As disruption to construction timelines subsides and speculative deliveries increase, experts expect the average lease-up period to gradually lengthen over the next few years as tenants are presented with more options. Tenants with move-in requirements this year will face a continuing environment of scarcity and competition in most markets, as supply-chain and labor challenges persistently impact delivery timelines.

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Country Afghanistan Aland Islands Albania Algeria American Samoa Andorra Angola Anguilla Antarctica Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bermuda Bhutan Bolivia Bonaire, Saint Eustatius and Saba Bosnia and Herzegovina Botswana Bouvet Island Brazil British Indian Ocean Territory British Virgin Islands Brunei Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Cayman Islands Central African Republic Chad Chile China Christmas Island Cocos Islands Colombia Comoros Cook Islands Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Curacao Cyprus Czech Republic Democratic Republic of the Congo Denmark Djibouti Dominica Dominican Republic East Timor Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Estonia Ethiopia Falkland Islands Faroe Islands Fiji Finland France French Guiana French Polynesia French Southern Territories Gabon Gambia Georgia Germany Ghana Gibraltar Greece Greenland Grenada Guadeloupe Guam Guatemala Guernsey Guinea Guinea-Bissau Guyana Haiti Heard Island and McDonald Islands Honduras Hong Kong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Isle of Man Israel Italy Ivory Coast Jamaica Japan Jersey Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya Kiribati Kosovo Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Laos Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Liberia Libya Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Macao Macedonia Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Mali Malta Marshall Islands Martinique Mauritania Mauritius Mayotte Mexico Micronesia Moldova Monaco Mongolia Montenegro Montserrat Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nauru Nepal Netherlands New Caledonia New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Niue Norfolk Island North Korea Northern Mariana Islands Norway Oman Pakistan Palau Palestinian Territory Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Peru Philippines Pitcairn Poland Portugal Puerto Rico Qatar Republic of the Congo Reunion Romania Russia Rwanda Saint Barthelemy Saint Helena Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Martin Saint Pierre and Miquelon Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Samoa San Marino Sao Tome and Principe Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore Sint Maarten Slovakia Slovenia Solomon Islands Somalia South Africa South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands South Korea South Sudan Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Svalbard and Jan Mayen Swaziland Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Tokelau Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan Turks and Caicos Islands Tuvalu U.S. Virgin Islands Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States United States Minor Outlying Islands Uruguay Uzbekistan Vanuatu Vatican Venezuela Vietnam Wallis and Futuna Western Sahara Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe
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I would like to receive the latest updates from Newmark

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Download The Report
For More Information, Contact:
Lisa DeNight
Director, National Industrial Research
Eric Messer
Research Manager
Nick Wood
Executive Vice President, Head of Industrial & Logistics ServicesMarket Leader, Salt Lake City Region

Disclaimer

Newmark Group Inc. published this content on 25 January 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 26 January 2022 16:16:09 UTC.


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Financials (USD)
Sales 2022 3 167 M - -
Net income 2022 202 M - -
Net Debt 2022 1 285 M - -
P/E ratio 2022 14,2x
Yield 2022 1,66%
Capitalization 1 997 M 1 997 M -
EV / Sales 2022 1,04x
EV / Sales 2023 1,03x
Nbr of Employees 4 261
Free-Float 73,6%
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Barry M. Gosin Chief Executive Officer
James D. Kuhn President & Head-Investor Services
Michael J. Rispoli Chief Financial Officer
Howard William Lutnick Chairman
Sridhar Potineni Chief Information Officer
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