Mosaic : Citi’s March Madness

March Madness: Phosphates

Jenny Wang, VP Global

Strategic Marketing

Andy Jung, VP Market and Strategic Analysis

Forward Looking Statements

This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the economic impact and operating impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential drop in oil demand / production and its impact on the availability and price of sulfur, political and economic instability in Brazil or changes in government policy in Brazil, such as higher costs associated with the new mining rules or the implementation of new freight tables; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic's international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the performance of the Wa'ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the timely development and commencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine, which is operated by an entity in which we are the majority owner; difficulties with realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which the pricing is disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic's decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic's operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic's processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management's current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC; reduction of Mosaic's available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic's Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic's operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake any duty to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

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Plant nutrients remain an attractive proposition despite rising prices (a U.S. farmer example)

• • The example below shows the fertilizer cost for corn increasing $34/acre y-o-y

  (though this assumes the fertilizer was purchased in March 2021)

• • But expected revenue has risen by $128/acre

Corn	Spring 2021	Spring 2020
Nutrition Cost Application Rate (lbs/ac)	$ / lbRetail Price*nutrient ($ / ton) $/acre	$ / lbRetail Price nutrient ($ / ton) $/acre
N - ammonia 220 P - MAP (no N credit) 50 K - MOP 60 Nutrition Cost	0.39 0.65 0.35 640 680 425 86 33 21 139	0.30 0.42 0.30 492 432 370 66 21 18 105
Expected Crop Revenue	Price Yield Revenue ($/bu) (bu/acre) ($/acre)	Price Yield Revenue ($/bu) (bu/acre) ($/acre)
Mid-March Expected Revenue**	4.58 180	824	3.87 180 697
Revenue - Nutrition Cost	685	592

*Retail Prices via DTN for late-March or early-April.

Revenue

Note: farmers are not all paying the latest fertilizer prices for this year's crop.

** Average February new crop CME contract price and 180 bu/ac yield forecast (to align with application rates).

Source: Mosaic

U.S. Phosphate Update: As expected, prices reverting towards parity and trade flows adjusting

• • NOLA DAP/MAP prices at a ~$20/mt discount to global benchmarks prior to the CVD

• • Most benchmarks have "caught up" to NOLA

• • Trade flows are adjusting as new entrants fill the gap left by Moroccan and Russian suppliers

NOLA and Brazil MAP

U.S. Offshore Phosphate Imports

US$/MT

Published Spot Prices

MAP fob NOLAMAP c&f Brazil

*week ly average reported spot pricing for prompt delivery

Source: Argus, Green Markets

* Estimated volume from Morocco in Q1 2021 was for bonded shipment to Canada

Source: Genscape; Mosaic

Global net price averages several global price benchmarks for finished phosphates and raw materials. It does not include any handling, storage, transportation or conversion costs.

Phosphate S/D: Then and Now

Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

North America Phosphate Producers Stocks

(estimated end-quarter on- and off-site inventories)

Source: TFI and Mosaic

• • Using North America inventories as a proxy for market tightness, a similar pattern has developed over the past two years as had occurred in 2009-10

India Import Timing: It is not unusual for delayed buying (but they need the tonnes and will be back)

• • India DAP pricing remains disconnected with global values and volumes have dried up

• • India has low starting inventory, but despite that it would not be uncommon for India to forgo significant import volumes through May

Could Brazilian demand outperform our expectations to provide an offset to India?

• • Import volumes starting the year on a very strong pace (up ~15% y-o-y in Q1)

• • Record-high farm economics drive demand

Mil Tonnes

2009 2019

Brazil Phosphate Imports

Jan

Jul 2009 2019

Jan 2010 2020

Jul 2010 2020

JanJul

• 2011 2011

• 2021 2021

Summary

Global phosphate market remains tight with NOLA at global parity

Phosphate global demand strength expected to continue

• • Farmer economics are strong

• • India demand risk driven by subsidy uncertainty

• • Brazil growth may offset any Indian decline

Phosphate global supply growth limited

• • China capacity diminished by restructuring

• • Long lead time for new projects / debottlenecking

Raw materials are expected to increase, lowering global net price from peak, though expected to remain at a historically-elevated level