ANNUAL MEDIA CONFERENCE FOR FISCAL YEAR 2020
MATTHIAS GRÜNDLER, CEO
CHRISTIAN SCHULZ, CFO
MUNICH - MARCH 22, 2021
DISCLAIMER
This presentation has been prepared for information purposes only.
It does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction. Neither this presentation, nor any part of it, nor the fact of its distribution, shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contractual commitment or investment decision in relation to the securities of Volkswagen AG, TRATON SE, or any company of the TRATON GROUP in any jurisdiction, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding any such securities.
It contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the TRATON GROUP. These statements and information are based on assumptions relating in particular to the TRATON GROUP's business and operations and the development of the economies in the countries in which the TRATON GROUP is active. As far as information or statements on Navistar are concerned, the same applies to Navistar. Please note that TRATON SE has signed definitive agreements on the acquisition of Navistar but the acquisition requires a number of approvals and is therefore not yet closed.
The TRATON GROUP has made such forward-looking statements on the basis of the information available to it and assumptions it believes to be reasonable. The forward-looking statements and information may involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those forecasts. If any of these or other risks or uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements and information. The TRATON GROUP will not update this presentation, particularly not the forward-looking statements. The presentation is valid on the date of publication only.
Certain financial information and financial data included in this presentation are preliminary, unaudited, and may be subject to revision. Due to their preliminary nature, statements contained in this presentation should not be unduly relied upon, and past events or performance should not be taken as a guarantee or indication of future events or performance. Financial figures might be translated from different currencies, using the exchange rate prevailing at the relevant date or for the relevant period that the relevant financial figures relate to.
All statements with regard to markets or market position(s) of TRATON SE or any affiliated company or any of its competitors are estimates based on data available to the TRATON GROUP. As far as information or statements on Navistar are concerned, the same applies to Navistar.
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The percentage figures shown may be subject to rounding differences. Due to different proportions and scaling graphs, data shown in different graphs is not comparable.
ANNUAL MEDIA CONFERENCE ON FISCAL YEAR 2020 - YOUR PRESENTERS TODAY
AGENDA
1. Challenging Environment 2020
2. Core KPIs Fiscal Year 2020
3. Road To The Future
4. Q&A
COVID-19 PANDEMIC WITH HUGE IMPACT IN 2020 AND BEYOND
POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT European Green Deal and
US electionsCOMPANY ENVIRONMENT Ongoing COVID-19 pandemic leads to uncertainties and burdens supply chain
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Recovering from severe impact of COVID-19
pandemic, but still under pressure
BUSINESS CLIMATE
European truck and bus market developing above pre COVID-19 level in Q4 2020
DEEP DIVE GLOBAL ECONOMY
GLOBAL ECONOMY IS RECOVERING FROM SETBACK FROM THE PANDEMIC
Growth expected for 2021, but environment still fragile
GDP forecasts for 2020/2021 as ofJan 2020Jun 2020Jan 2021
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
DEEP DIVE BUSINESS CLIMATE
BUSINESS CLIMATE IS BRIGHTENING, NOT YET ON NORMAL LEVEL
Truck registrations (> 16t) in Europe improving1
60
40
200
2021
2021
2021
-20 -40 -60
2017
2018
2019
2020
Monthly European truck registrations (k units)YoY change (in %)
1 ACEA new heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) registrations of 16t and over for EU + EFTA + UK
DEEP DIVE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
GLOBAL TRADE RELATIONS AND CV INDUSTRY ARE TRANSFORMING
Restructuring of the international trade relations
A NEW BEGINNING?
Implementation of the European Recovery and Resilience Facility
MARKET RAMP-UP ALTERNATIVE DRIVES & AUTOMATION.
Purchase incentives for customers and investments in charging infrastructure needed
First road tests: autonomous driving
STRONG SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR AFTER STEEP DECLINE
Incoming orders & unit sales (k units)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
0
10
70.3K62.5K
Q1 18
Q2 18
Q3 18
Q4 18
Q1 19
Q2 19
Q3 19
Q4 19
Q1 20
Q2 20
Q3 20
Q4 20
AGENDA
1.
Challenging Environment 2020
2. Core KPIs Fiscal Year 2020
3. Road To The Future
4. Q&A
SNAPSHOT TRATON GROUP CORE KPIS FY 2020
Trucks and buses (units)
1.14
0.94
0.2 bpBOOK TO BILL1 (RATIO IN UNITS)
2020
2019
Change
1 Book-to-bill is defined as the ratio of trucks and bus units ordered to trucks and bus units delivered
2 Including MAN TGE (2020: 17,635 units, 2019: 14,788 units)
2020 | 2019 Change | 2020 | 2019 | Change |
174,006 | 220,723 -21% | 16,174 | 21,496 | -25% |
OF WHICH TRUCKS2
OF WHICH BUSES
DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS
Financial key performance indicators (€ million)
1 FY 2020: Operating Result €81 mn; FY 2019: Operating Result €1,884 mn
2 FY 2020: Operating RoS 0.4%; FY 2019: Operating RoS 7.0%;
ADJ. OPERATING ROS (in %)2
2020 | 2019 | Change |
0.6 | ||
7.0 | -6.4 pp |
DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS
Industrial Business (€ million)
ADJ. OPERATING ROS (in %)2
2020 | 2019 | Change |
0.1 | ||
6.5 | -6.4 pp |
1 FY 2020: operating result €-26 mn; Operating result in FY 2020 contained costs that were primarily incurred in connection with the reorganization of production facilities at Scania V&S of €54 mn; FY 2019: operating result €1,7741 mn
2 FY 2020: Operating RoS -0.1%; FY 2019: Operating RoS 6.6%
DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS
Industrial Business (€ million)
1 Capital expenditures in property, plant, and equipment, and intangible assets (€million).
2 FY 2019 reported net cash flow of €2,711 mn, adjusted of €733 mn before the sale of Power Engineering (€1,978 mn).
3 Mainly due to the net cash outflow of €-1.4 bn resulting primarily from the end of the domination and profit and loss transfer agreement (DPLTA) with Volkswagen AG for the fiscal year 2019. Note: Delta FY 2020 vs. FY 2019.
DEEP DIVE GROUP CORE KPIS
Financial Services (€ million)
POSITIVE TRUCK MARKET OUTLOOK, DEPENDING ON COVID-19 DEVELOPMENT
Truck market (˃ 6t, k units)
Source: Historical data based on own calculations and estimates.
1 EU27+3 region (EU27 countries without Malta, plus the United Kingdom, Norway, and Switzerland)
2 Includes estimates from different institutes, companies and data and information services.
OUTLOOK 2021: RECOVERY AFTER STRONG DECLINE
TRATON GROUP Core KPIs
FY 2019 | FY 2020 | 2021 Outlook1 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | 2021 Outlook1 |
242.2 k | 190.2 k | €26.9 bn | €22.6 bn | ||
Sharp | Substantial | ||||
increase | increase | ||||
+ 4% | -21% | + 4% | -16% | ||
UNIT SALES | SALES REVENUE | ||||
FY 2019 | FY 2020 | 2021 Outlook1 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | 2021 Outlook1 |
7.0% | 0.4% | 5.0 - 6.0% | 179% | n/a3 | 25 - 35% |
€1.9 bn | €81 mn |
1 Before expenses from the MAN Truck & Bus restructuring program and effects from the planned acquisition of Navistar International Corporation.
2 FY 2019: adjusted RoS 7.0%, adjusted operating result €1.9 bn; FY 2020: adjusted operating RoS 0.6%, adjusted operating result €135 mn.
3 Calculated as the ratio of net cash flow to result after tax; cash conversion rate in FY 2019 was positively affected by the proceeds of approximately €2.0 bn from the disposal of the Power Engineering business. In FY 2020, the negative earnings after tax did not result in any meaningful cash conversion rate.
H2 2020 SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN H1 2020
SNAPSHOT TRATON - STRATEGIC AND PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS 2020
The TRATON GROUP successfully followed its Global Champion Strategy
AGENDA
1. Challenging Environment 2020
2. Core KPIs Fiscal Year 2020
3. Road To The Future
4. Q&A
SUCCESSFUL EXECUTION OF OUR GLOBAL CHAMPION STRATEGY
21
COOPERATION & SYNERGIES
START OF INTRODUCTION OF THE COMMON BASE ENGINE (CBE) IN H2 2021
50% Common base engine (CBE)
expected to be installed in almost half of TRATON heavy-duty trucks per year from 2025e onwards.
CBEEnhanced fuel efficiency Reduced weight
Low maintenance
2023e
2021e
2022e
2024e
2025e
2026e
TRATON INCREASES R&D INVESTMENT IN E-MOBILITY TO €1.6 BILLION
TRATON invests
€1.6 billion in R&D for e-mobility from 2021 to 2025
All brands are shifting budgets from conventional drives to e-mobility
Share of product development1 for e-mobility will be doubled until 2025
Less than 20% of product development budget for conventional drivetrains in 2025
1 Product Development budget comprises the share of primary R&D costs, that could be assigned to specific Product Projects or Product Project Roadmaps before start of production. Product Development budget does not include efforts for general base research or R&D support after start of production (i.e. for quality assurance or product cost optimization during the lifecycle).
OUR BRANDS FOCUS ON E-MOBILITY LEADERSHIP
SINCE 2020
Common modular electric powertrain toolkit, used in the first series produced all-electric city buses from Scania and MAN.
BY 2025
Electrified vehicles will account for around 10% of Scania's total vehicle sales volumes in Europe. Half of MAN's new buses will run on alternative drives.
BY 2030
Electrified vehicles will account for 50% of Scania's total vehicle sales volumes. At least 60% of MAN's delivery trucks and 40% of long-haul trucks will be emission-free.
BEV WILL BECOME MAINSTREAM IN ALL MAJOR CV SEGMENTS
Total cost of ownership is the most important driver for adoption of new drivetrains, exceeding regulatory impact.
We see BEV as the most cost-efficient solution, especially in long-distance applications (due to high energy to total cost ratio).
Three BEV trucks can drive with the same amount of energy as one hydrogen truck.
TRATON expects BEV to become mainstream in all major CV segments.
SCANIA AND MAN HAVE SEVERAL AUTONOMOUS INITIATIVES ONGOING
AV Initiatives @ SCANIA
MAN T&B MEASURES TO IMPROVE EARNINGS
Overview by item type (€ mn)
1.700
Earnings improvement
Personnel & material overheads
Material costs
450
Sales efforts
Key issues paper to realign MAN T&B agreed
• Strong focus on future technologies
• Repositioning of the production and development network
• Reduction of ~3,500 jobs across all areas in
Germany by the end of 2022
• BINZ takes over MAN Plauen with all employees
• Steyr site in Austria (~2,200 employees) in discussion
• In total, restructuring costs are currently expected in the high triple-digit millions Euro
Ensuring sustainable uplift in RoS and cash flows
CONSISTENT IMPLEMENTATION OF SITE RESTRUCTURING - PRODUCTION
Salzgitter
Lead location for global logistics activities Components-plant
• Non-driven axle
• Crankshaft
Nuremberg
Lead production plant for motors and e-drives
Centre of competence Development of alternative and conventional drives
Munich
Global Headquarter MAN Truck & Bus Lead production plant Truck
Global development centre
Steyr
in discusion
PU TruckPU BusPU ComponentsParts
Bánovce
Components
Ankara
Lead unit bus Bus development
GLOBAL EXPANSION
STATUS AND NEXT STEPS WITH NAVISTAR
Signing and announcement of merger agreement on November 7, 2020
Navistar shareholder approval received at Navistar
Annual Meeting on March 2, 2021
Regulatory approvals expected in H1 2021
Closing expected mid-2021
AFTER STRONG HEADWINDS IN 2020 TRATON IS READY FOR 2021
Proposed dividend of €0.25 per share1 Operating Return on Sales at 0.4%Sales Revenue down to €22.6 billionAdjusted Operating Result at €135 million | 2020 |
For 2021 Operating Return on Sales of between 5.0 and 6.0% expectedKey Issues Paper on MAN Truck & Bus transformation Closing on Navistar expected mid-2021 Budget Shift to e-mobility, strong focus on BEV | 2021 |
1 topic for approval at the upcoming TRATON AGM
AGENDA
1. Challenging Environment 2020
2. Core KPIs Fiscal Year 2020
3. Road To The Future
4.
Q&A
CONTACTS GROUP COMMUNICATIONS
TRATON SE
Dachauer Str. 641, 80995 Munichwww.traton.com
ANNUAL MEDIA CONFERENCE FOR FISCAL YEAR 2020
MATTHIAS GRÜNDLER, CEO
CHRISTIAN SCHULZ, CFO
MUNICH - MARCH 22, 2021
APPENDIX
SCANIA VEHICLES & SERVICES - CORE KPIS
Trucks and buses (units)
2020 | 2019 Change | 2020 | 2019 | Change |
66,899 | 91,680 -27% | 5,186 | 7,777 | -33% |
OF WHICH TRUCKS
OF WHICH BUSES
SCANIA VEHICLES & SERVICES - CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
ADJ. OPERATING ROS (in %)
2020 | 2019 | Change |
7.0 | ||
10.8 | -3.9 pp |
MAN TRUCK & BUS - CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
1 Including MAN TGE (2020: 17,635 units, 2019: 14,788 units).
MAN TRUCK & BUS - CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
ADJ. OPERATING ROS (in %)
2020 | 2019 | Change |
-5.7 | ||
3.3 | -9.1 pp |
VOLKSWAGEN CAMINHÕES E ÔNIBUS - CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
2020 | 2019 Change | 2020 | 2019 | Change |
31,242 | 35,282 -11% | 5,732 | ||
6,609 | -13% |
OF WHICH TRUCKS1
OF WHICH BUSES
VOLKSWAGEN CAMINHÕES E ÔNIBUS - CORE KPIS
Financial key perfomance indicators (€ million)
Change | ||
-58 | ||
2020 | 2019 | Change |
-1.2 | ||
2.5 |
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Traton SE published this content on 18 March 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 22 March 2021 09:08:09 UTC.