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Gold : Back to square one

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03/08/2019 | 10:57am EDT

The price of an ounce of gold is approaching the level it had at the beginning of the year at USD 1284, weighed down by a sustained rise in equity markets, to which is added a rise in the US dollar.



Investors have a renewed taste for risky assets, largely linked to traders' optimism about a future easing of trade, and this is preventing gold from shining. In addition, still on the fundamentals front, the improvement in macroeconomic statistics, such as a US GDP close to 3% or a smaller than expected contraction in Chinese manufacturing PMI, limits hedging strategies.

While this is not the time to look for safe havens, this does not limit the potential of gold metal in the longer term. The actions of central banks, which are intended to be accommodating, tend to reduce real rates, making gold mechanically more attractive since - by definition – it does not deliver any yield.

Graphically, in daily time units, gold shows signs of weakness, such as the reversal of the 20 and 50-day moving averages. Profit taking can bring prices to the next size support at USD 1275, which coincides with the 100-day moving average. This zone could trigger a mobilization of buyers, who will initially target the USD 1300 and by extension, the USD 1360 wall.
 

Jordan Dufee
© MarketScreener.com 2019
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