Adnoc Gas Expects Strait of Hormuz Closure to Hit Full-Year Profit -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 3.4% to $107.72 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 0.9% to 46.67 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures rise 1% to $14,063.50 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are down 0.7% to $4,692 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Adnoc Gas Expects Strait of Hormuz Closure to Hit Full-Year Profit

Adnoc Gas said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will hit its full-year net profit despite higher prices helping to offset lost sales once the waterway opens up.

The Abu Dhabi-owned gas company said Tuesday that it anticipates a hit to second-quarter net income between $400 million and $600 million due to the strait's closure. Adnoc's forecast assumes shipping operations return to normal prior to the end of the quarter.

OTHER STORIES:

Abu Dhabi's Gas Giant Says Restoring Production Will Take Until 2027

Abu Dhabi's state-owned gas company said it expects it will take until 2027 to fully restore production at its main natural-gas processing facility, which was attacked last month, underlining the long tail of the conflict even if a peace deal is secured.

Adnoc Gas said it hopes to restore 80% of processing capacity at Habshan, one of the world's largest gas-processing complexes, by the end of this year. Adnoc halted operations at the facility in early April after an attack caused a fire. An Egyptian national died and others sustained minor injuries.

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Canada Growth Fund to Invest Up to C$145M in Expansion of Elevra's Big Quebec Lithium Mine

The Canadian government's arms-length investment vehicle has agreed to invest in Elevra Lithium's planned expansion of a lithium mine in Quebec.

Canada Growth Fund said it committed to invest as much as 145 million Canadian dollars (US$106 million) in Elevra's Canadian subsidiary, Sayona. The injection is part of Elevra's push to raise C$417 million in all, including a roughly C$272 million equity raising.

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Trump Says He Supports Suspending the Federal Gas Tax

WASHINGTON-President Trump said he supports suspending the federal gasoline tax, responding to a surge in fuel prices driven by the war in Iran.

"I'm going to," he told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, arguing that gas prices will "drop like a rock" once the war winds down. Asked how long the tax should be suspended, Trump said, "Until it's appropriate," adding that the tax is a relatively small proportion of the cost of gas "but it's still money."

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Trump Delays Move to Lower Tariffs on Beef Imports

The Trump administration said it would delay a plan to address high beef prices, which would have suspended tariffs on imported beef.

President Trump had planned to sign Monday a pair of executive orders to lower tariffs on beef and reduce regulations on American cattle producers. On Monday evening a White House official said the actions had been delayed as the administration finalizes details.

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Despite the War, Energy Stocks Are Cheap

The world is in the middle of a historic oil crisis, yet the biggest bargains on Wall Street can be found in U.S. energy stocks.

After the latest round of oil-producer earnings, analysts have raised their profit expectations for the sector. They now expect the energy stocks in the S&P 500 to generate 58% more earnings per share in 2026 than they did before the Iran war began, according to FactSet.

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Inflation Soared to 3.8% in April, Driven by Gasoline Prices

Consumer prices rose 3.8% in April from a year earlier, a clear impact of higher gas prices since the start of the war with Iran.

The figures, reported Tuesday by the Labor Department, surpassed the previous month's reported increase of 3.3%. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected inflation of 3.7%. The April increase was the highest in three years.

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Venture Global Shares Gain as 1Q Profit, Revenue Rise Despite Volatile LNG Market

Shares of Venture Global climbed after the natural-gas exporter reported higher profit and revenue in the latest quarter, and said it is playing a critical role in helping maintain supply stability amid a volatile period for the global liquefied natural gas market.

The stock rose 8.7%, to $12.63, in premarket trading Tuesday. Through Monday's close, shares have surged more than 70% since the beginning of the year.

MARKET TALKS:

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Give Back Some Gains -- Market Talk

0959 ET - U.S. natural gas futures return some of the yesterday's gains with near-term weather-driven demand still weak. The downturn in supply from the end of the heating season is unsurprising given low shoulder-season demand and scheduled pipeline maintenance, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Supply constraints often last into early-to-mid June, he says. While a rally is probable at some point over the next 30-45 days, a rising storage surplus and returning production "presents headwinds for Nymex gas futures into mid-to-late summer." Natural gas is down 2.6% at $2.834/mmBtu. ([e-mail])

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Hogs Resume Downward Slide After Brief Jump -- Market Talk

0954 ET - Yesterday's uptick in CME lean hog futures may have been an aberration, says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "Lean hog futures rebounded on short covering, but the broader technical structure remains bearish," he says. "June hog futures remain in a downtrend, with the CME lean hog index and projected cash index both moving lower." Most-active lean hog futures are down 0.3% in early trade. Live cattle is up 1.1%, seeming to shake off the news of the Trump Administration temporarily lowering tariffs on beef imports. ([e-mail])

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Oil Futures Gain As War Escalation Concerns Mount -- Market Talk

0947 ET - Oil futures are rising for a third session as the lack of agreement between the U.S. and Iran and President Trump's warning about the precarious cease-fire raise concerns about renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict. "No news now likely means further escalations are coming," BOK Financial's Dennis Kissler says in a note. But with Trump heading to China to meet leader Xi Jinping, no real escalation is expected until he returns, Kissler adds. WTI is up 3.9% at $101.93 a barrel and Brent rises 3.7% to $108.11. ([e-mail])

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Silver Backs Off After Strong Surge -- Market Talk

0944 ET - Most-active silver futures are down 1.4%, this after a strong jump of over 6% seen Monday. Fears of a stalemate in the U.S.-Iran war are lifting the U.S. dollar, and crude oil futures are also trading higher, making precious metals less of a go-to for today. But in the longer-term, the narrative surrounding silver's industrial use in addition to its safe-haven status look to keep supporting prices, says Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital in a note. "Demand from electrification, renewable energy, electronics, AI infrastructure, and automotive production could help limit downside pressure," says Kooijman. Gold futures are down 0.6%. ([e-mail])

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Signs of Stress Seen in Crop Progress Report -- Market Talk

0927 ET - The USDA's Crop Progress report showed that U.S. corn planting is over halfway done for this year, while soybean planting is ahead of both last year's pace and the average 5-year pace. For corn, the report may contain signs of latent crop stress that is only beginning to be felt. "Corn planting continues to proceed ahead of average with emergence slowed due to recent cool temperatures," says Michael Cordonnier of Soybean & Corn Advisor in a note. He says corn acreage and yields may shrink from where the USDA currently project them, while soybean acreage and yield may rise amid the accelerated planting pace. CBOT corn is up 0.9% premarket, and soybeans rise 0.4%. ([e-mail])

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Winter Wheat Condition Degrades Further -- Market Talk

0914 ET - Drought conditions in the western Plains continue to be felt in U.S. winter wheat, with the USDA cutting its outlook for crop. The government says only 28% of the winter wheat crop is in good or excellent condition, down from 31% the prior week. "That's a single point ahead of the two worst-rated crops of the last 35+ years, in between the two worst crops of the last decade," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. This week's rating is well off from the 54% measured at this time last year, according to the USDA. CBOT wheat is up 1.8% premarket. ([e-mail])

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Gold Falls But Holds Above $4,700 After U.S. Inflation Soared in April -- Market Talk

1304 GMT - Gold prices fall but remain above $4,700 a troy ounce after the latest U.S. data showed inflation soared in April, driven by higher gasoline prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% last month, surpassing the previous month's reported increase of 3.3% and expectations of a 3.7% rise. In afternoon European trading, New York futures are down 0.4% to $4,710.70 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index--which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies--is up 0.3% to 98.24. ([e-mail])

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European Gas Rises on Stalled U.S.-Iran Talks, Tighter Supplies -- Market Talk

1256 GMT - European natural-gas prices rise as a lack of progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations and tighter supplies cloud the outlook. The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract is up 1.4% to 46.90 euros a megawatt hour. Gas storage levels are around 34% of capacity, well below the five-year seasonal norm of 47%. This highlights a tighter storage position heading into the stockpiling season. Supply is also under pressure from an unplanned outage at Norway's Hammerfest LNG plant, according to ANZ. Meanwhile, Asian buyers have turned more aggressively to the spot market to secure supply. "With only a few shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz, supply contracts are not being met," analysts at the firm say. ([e-mail])

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HSBC Raises Brent Forecast, Assuming Hormuz Normalization by End of Third Quarter -- Market Talk

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05-12-26 1103ET