Jefferies is maintaining its Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of 55 euros ahead of the group's first-half results publication.

The analyst expects organic growth of +1.2% for the second quarter, coming in below the consensus estimate of +1.6%.

"This slowdown compared to the first quarter (Q1: +1.8%) is explained by the impact of contract reclassifications (which we account for in net new business) and like-for-like volumes (impacted by adverse weather conditions in the United States)," the research firm noted.

"Similar to the first quarter, North America is expected to underperform expectations, with a more pronounced slowdown in Q2 (Jefferies Q2: -2.9% / consensus: -1.7%, vs Q1: -1.5%)."
The analyst anticipates stable trends in Europe and the Rest of the World, with organic growth of +2.6% and +9.4% respectively in the second quarter.

"The H1 2026 margin should reflect headwinds related to revenue, sales mix, and investments." Jefferies is targeting an 80-basis-point year-on-year decline in the first-half margin to 4.4% (consensus: 4.5%), driven by the situation in North America (Jefferies: -120 bps YoY to 5.9%, vs consensus of 6%) and, to a lesser extent, Europe (Jefferies: -20 bps YoY to 4.1%, in line with consensus).

According to the analyst, this margin contraction is expected to be driven by negative operating leverage (negative net gains), an unfavorable sales mix, and investments aimed at accelerating growth.

Jefferies expects organic growth of +1.6% for the full year (guidance: +1.5-2.5% / consensus: +1.9%). It anticipates a slight acceleration in the second half (+1.8%), reflecting the annualization of losses and improved momentum at Sodexo Live! (Sports & Leisure).

The analyst also targets a 70-basis-point year-on-year margin decline to 4% for the full year (guidance: "slight decline" / consensus: -30 bps to 4.4%), reflecting a further 50-basis-point year-on-year decline in the second half.