* cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageId=stock-index-poll poll data
TOKYO, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei 225 share average will rise sharply from current levels by year-end so long as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-low rate policy and the yen stays weak, according to equity market strategists in a Reuters poll.
The Nikkei is forecast to trade at 34,000 at the end of this year according to the median estimate of 13 analysts polled Aug. 9-21, up 7.7% from Monday's close of 31,565.64.
In June, the Nikkei touched a 33-year high of 33,772, driven by the BOJ's continued easy policy - while other central banks have been raising rates - and robust corporate earnings from domestic firms.
"There have not been any signs for the BOJ to phase out monetary easing, which is positive for stocks," said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.
Last month, the BOJ raised its de facto ceiling for the benchmark 10-year government bond yield to 1.0% from 0.5% but maintained its negative short-term rate policy.
Expectations grew that the gap between Japan's benchmark 10-year yield and its U.S. peer would remain wide following strong U.S. economic data, sending the yen to its weakest against the dollar since November earlier this month.
A softer yen tends to help exporter shares as it increases the value of overseas profits in yen terms when firms repatriate them to Japan.
Yunosuke Ikeda, chief equity strategist at Nomura Securities expects the Nikkei to be 34,000 at year-end, driven by improved profit margins at Japanese companies. "Operating profit margin has improved among Japanese companies because they raised prices and they are able to keep that price level as material costs decline," Ikeda said.
While the U.S. Federal Reserve is now widely seen as done raising interest rates and most in markets are betting inflation will come down without a recession, a more negative outcome is a downside risk for the Nikkei.
"I see (a) hard landing of the U.S. economy as the biggest downside risk to the Nikkei," said Daiju Aoki, chief Japan economist at UBS Sumi Trust Wealth Management, who expects the Nikkei to be at 32,000 by end-year.
Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, who expects the Nikkei to be at 35,400 by year-end, said a serious slowdown in the Chinese economy could be a downside risk to Japanese stocks.
(Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)
(Additional reporting and polling by Tokyo markets team; additional polling by Prerana Bhat and Rahul Trivedi in Bengaluru; editing by Christina Fincher)
