In Europe, the number of daily cases has just hit new records. And financial markets have been hit hard, although they have recovered some of their early losses today. Yesterday, the old continent finished at the bottom of the session while Wall Street slightly reduced its losses at the end of the session, without however escaping a severe correction (-1.86% for the S&P500). Today, Futures are slightly up.
The strength of this new wave of contamination obviously raises questions of the state of the economy. Specialists seem to have given up on the V-shaped recovery, and are now betting on a W-shape. The W-shaped recovery illustrates the fall in the second quarter of 2020, followed by a violent rise in the third, then a relapse in the fourth, before a rebound in the first quarter of 2021. The pessimists foresaw the flat electroencephalogram of an L-track. More cautious, some were counting on a K-shaped recovery, synonymous with sectoral decoupling.
In reality, markets are realizing that it is a K-shaped recovery scenario that is taking shape, but not a "sectoral K", rather a "geographical K": China is gradually climbing back up the slope a quarter ahead of the West, without having had to face the second wave of Covid-19, at least not for the time being. It has already started vaccinating the population even before the final results of the clinical studies in progress.
Today’s session will be marked by several quarterly results, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry and banking. But the most eagerly awaited company of the day is Microsoft, whose accounts will be unveiled after the US stock market closes.
Three highlights today, the M3 money supply in the Euro Zone, the US durable goods orders and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.