Oil Crisis Will Be 'Much Worse' in April, IEA Chief Says -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 2.7% to $101.17 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 6.7% to 47.35 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures fall 0.1% to $12,372 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 2% to $4,769.50 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

Oil Crisis Will Be 'Much Worse' in April, IEA Chief Says

The International Energy Agency is considering whether another emergency oil release is needed and has suggested governments impose other energy-saving measures such as work-from-home days and reduced speed limits for cars, IEA executive director Fatih Birol, said on a podcast released Wednesday.

"April will be much worse than March" because March oil supplies benefitted from shipments under way before the Iran war started, Birol said on the show, which was hosted by Norges Bank Investment Management chief executive Nicolai Tangen. "The loss of oil in April will be twice the loss of oil in March," he added.

OTHER STORIES:

Oil Retreats on Hopes of Iran War Resolution

Oil prices fell Wednesday, with the global benchmark Brent crude briefly slipping below $100 a barrel after President Trump signaled he wants to wind down the war in Iran as the conflict entered its fifth week.

In early European trading, the front-month Brent contract for June delivery was down 2.1% to $101.69 a barrel, having earlier fallen to $98, while West Texas Intermediate futures for May traded 2.7% lower to $98.69 a barrel. Natural-gas prices also declined, with the front-month Dutch TTF contract--the European benchmark--down 4.8% to 48.28 euros a megawatt-hour.

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ShaMaran Petroleum Reports Explosion at Sarsang Facility in Iraq

ShaMaran Petroleum reported an explosion at a storage facility in Iraq's Sarang field.

The Canadian oil and gas company said Wednesday it was informed by HKN Energy, the operator of the Sarang block in the Kurdistan region, that an explosion occurred earlier in the day at one of the storage facilities in the field. There have been no injuries reported and all personnel have been accounted for, it said.

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EU to Boost Carbon-Allowance Supply as Iran War Roils Energy Markets

The European Union is allowing greater supply into its landmark carbon-pricing system in a bid to ensure stability amid an energy-price spike due to the war in the Middle East.

Under the EU's emissions-trading system, or ETS, companies whose operations emit climate-changing carbon dioxide must pay for a permit for each metric ton they emit. The system, in place since 2005, includes a market-stability reserve aimed at ensuring prices for those emissions allowances remain broadly stable. Companies are meanwhile given a certain amount of free allowances in order to keep European industry competitive. Allowances are sold at auction and can also be traded among polluters.

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Australian Prime Minister Urges Civilians to Help Conserve Fuel

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called on citizens to take small steps to save energy, warning that the economic shock caused by the war would "be with us for months" and "the months ahead may not be easy."

Albanese highlighted simple ways that Australians could save fuel. "If you're hitting the road, don't take more fuel than you need, just fill up like you normally would, think of others," he said. "Over coming weeks, if you can switch to catching the train or bus or tram to work, do so, that builds our reserves." In response to the crisis, Australia has cut the tax on a liter of fuel by 26 cents for three months and is working to bring more petrol, diesel and fertilizer to the country, the prime minister added.

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U.A.E. Wants to Force Hormuz Open and Is Willing to Join the Fight

The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.

The U.A.E. is lobbying for a United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorize such action, the officials said. Emirati diplomats have urged the U.S. and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the strait by force, the officials said. A U.A.E. official said the Iranian regime thinks it is fighting for its existence and is willing to bring the global economy down with it in a chokehold on the strait.

MARKET TALKS:

Specialty Eggs Account for Over Half of Cal-Maine's Total Sales -- Market Talk

1005 ET - Specialty eggs, which include free-range, pasture-raised and other premium varieties, are driving a greater portion of Cal-Maine's total sales. The segment accounts for just over half of the company's total egg sales in the latest quarter, up from about a quarter of total egg sales a year ago. The company for the past several quarters has been intentionally shifting its sales mix away from standard eggs toward premium varieties, which carry higher margins and sell at a premium. Cal-Maine shares climb 4.5% after posting higher-than-expected profit and sales. ([e-mail])

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Cattle Inches Up as Rollins Hinted at Border Reopening -- Market Talk

0953 ET - CME live cattle futures are up 0.2%. The U.S.-Mexico border remains closed to trade of cattle due to New World screwworm concerns, but the USDA is increasingly mulling over a strategy to slowly reopen it, per Agricultural Secretary Brooke Rollins. Speaking at a recent event, Rollins said the USDA is "evaluating a potential phased-in strategy," potentially reopening a port in Arizona first before opening others in Texas. This could derail upward momentum for cattle futures, says Ross Baldwin of AgMarket.net in a note. "I think it's plausible to think that the markets would trade lower if Rollins was to announce even a limited reopening within the next two to four weeks," he says. Lean hog futures are flat. ([e-mail])

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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Weaker in Early Trade -- Market Talk

0947 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower with production holding up at the start of the low-demand spring shoulder season. The war in the Persian Gulf has shut in LNG from major exporter Qatar and raised expectations of demand for U.S. exports, with more impact on later-dated U.S. futures. "With little changed in near-term domestic fundamentals, the disproportionate losses for next winter deliveries are noteworthy," says Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors in a note. "While the magnitude of these swings still pales in comparison to what has been observed in global LNG benchmarks and across the crude oil complex, winter 2026-27 has been moving more closely with prevailing market sentiment surrounding the war in Iran than the front of the curve." Nymex gas for May delivery is off 1.8% at $2.832/mmBtu.([e-mail])

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Oil Eases, But Holds Around $100 on Hormuz Uncertainty -- Market Talk

1340 GMT - Hopes of de-escalation in the Iran war are encouraging, but might be premature as tensions remain high and shipping through Hormuz is still constrained. "We've seen a pullback in crude, but Brent holding around $100 a barrel tells you the market isn't entirely convinced yet," says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com. "It's hard to see oil sustaining a move below $100 without a clearer timeline--and more importantly, credibility--around reopening Hormuz." Brent crude for June is down 2.1% to $101.8 a barrel, while WTI futures for May fall 1.2% to $100.14 a barrel.([e-mail])

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Gold Little Changed, Supported by Iran De-Escalation Hopes -- Market Talk

1319 GMT - Gold prices are little changed in early U.S. trading, with New York futures above $4,700 a troy ounce on hopes that the Iran war might be nearing an end. President Trump said in a social media post that Tehran asked for a ceasefire and that the U.S. will "consider it" when the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear." Gold futures rise 1.7% to $4,757.10 an ounce, on track for a weekly gain of 4.5%. Still, bullion registered its worst month since 2008 in March. "Gold remains vulnerable to a broader liquidity squeeze and a firmer U.S. dollar, though so far pullbacks have been met with buying rather than a loss of confidence," ING analysts say. "Upcoming data on central bank purchases will be key to gauging whether the early?year slowdown in official sector buying marks a more sustained pause or merely a temporary breather." ([e-mail])

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Oil Futures Lower As Market Awaits Next Steps in Gulf Conflict -- Market Talk

0921 ET - Oil futures are lower with the market cautiously hoping that the war in the Persian Gulf is nearing an end. President Trump's planned address to the nation "has macro rallying and is probably weakening oil as the media is getting optimistic that he is looking to end this war," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's president has asked for a cease-fire. "We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear," he added. WTI is off 1% at $100.33 a barrel and Brent is down 1.7% at $102.15.([e-mail])

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Farmers May Reduce Fertilizer Applications to Save Money -- Market Talk

0833 ET - Farmers looking to mitigate the effect of high nitrogen prices should look to apply less of the fertilizer to their corn crop this spring, according to professors at the agricultural department of the University of Illinois. In a note, they write that a 20%-25% increase in anhydrous ammonia prices and 40% increase in urea prices in the wake of the war in Iran have made it so farmers may need to more closely stick to what's called the "maximum return to nitrogen" rate recommendations. "This is particularly true for situations where spring nitrogen needs were not priced prior to the price increases," they write. Corn is the biggest consumer of nitrogen in soil among row crops, so farmers often maximize fertilizer application to ensure high yields. CBOT corn is down 1% premarket. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Lower on Likely Profit-Taking -- Market Talk

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04-01-26 1028ET