By Kirk Maltais


--Soybean for July delivery fell 0.4% to $11.79 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with grain traders pricing in U.S. weather forecasts as planting begins in the Corn Belt.

--Corn for July delivery fell 0.4% to $4.63 1/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for July delivery were virtually unchanged at $6.09 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Returning to Basics: Grain markets are returning to fundamentals, detaching from ebbs and flows in energy futures, said AgResource in a note. CBOT grain futures moved lower even though crude oil futures remain up over 11% today. "The market is shifting its attention to U.S. and global grain balance sheets a day early," said the firm, noting that traders previously speculated that this focus wouldn't take center stage until after the Easter holiday. "Neither the U.S. nor the world balance sheets call for any grain shortages."

War Still Looms: President Trump's recent address to the nation failed to quell uncertainties about when the war in Iran could end. Those worries could be seen in commodity trades. For agriculture, ongoing supply disruptions from fighting around the Strait of Hormuz could combine with a changing climate to potentially create new supply issues for grains around the world. "Some weather forecasters have warned that this could be one of the strongest episodes on record, describing it as potentially being a 'super El Niño'," said Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics in a note. The NOAA forecasts a climate shift to El Niño this summer.


INSIGHT


Heat Map: The NOAA's Drought Monitor, updated Thursday, shows increased dryness across the country, particularly in growing areas in both the western plains and the Mississippi Delta. Drier conditions are seen ahead of the start of the planting season in the U.S. Corn Belt, with corn seeding typically starting in April. The areas with the most severe and extreme dryness are areas where winter wheat has been growing in the past months, as well as areas further east where cotton is going to be planted.

Below the Mark: Export sales of U.S. soybeans reported by the USDA this week fell below the projections of analysts surveyed this week. For the week ended March 26, soybean export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 353,300 metric tons for the week. That's below the 400,000 tons to 700,000 tons range forecast by analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week. Corn sales totaled 1.25 million tons for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years, which landed within analyst forecasts for the week. Wheat sales totaled 296,300 tons across both marketing years, slightly below analyst forecasts for the week.


AHEAD


-Stock indices and the CME will be closed in observance of Good Friday, reopening on Monday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its first weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

04-02-26 1549ET