By Ed Frankl
Swiss inflation last month rose to its highest level since March last year, as the conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices upward.
Consumer prices were up 0.3% on year in March, higher than the 0.1% in February, Switzerland's statistics agency said Thursday. It was the first rise in annual inflation in four months.
As in the neighboring eurozone, the pickup was driven by higher energy prices prompted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Heating-oil prices in Switzerland were up 22% on the previous year, or 31% compared with February. Energy-and-fuels inflation was up 0.5% on year, and compared with the previous month, prices were up 4.4%.
While Switzerland is in a better position to navigate the energy shock than other major economies given its more diverse energy mix, imported oil-and-gas price increases are expected to raise inflation in the coming year. The Swiss National Bank last month penciled in inflation to average at 0.5% both this year and 2027.
Data this week showed eurozone inflation jumping to 2.5% in March, from 1.9% in February. Using the European Union's harmonized measure, Swiss inflation was 0.6% in March.
The pickup brings inflation further away from the bottom of the SNB's 0%-2% target range, where it has hovered for much of the last year. The rise likely reassures the bank that it doesn't need to bring rates below zero to spur inflation, for which policymakers have said there remains a high bar to doing so given the pain it causes savers and for bank profits.
The Swiss franc's role as a safe-haven currency in times of geopolitical uncertainty meant it appreciated against the euro after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. A pricier franc means imported products are cheaper, and Switzerland's exports more expensive abroad, slowing the economy.
Sharp currency movements at the start of March prompted the SNB to issue an unusual statement that it was prepared to intervene in the foreign-exchange market to stop a rapid and excessive appreciation of the franc.
Partly as a result, the franc has dropped against both the euro and the dollar in the last month. Most investors expect one SNB interest-rate hike, rather than a cut, by the end of this year, LSEG data showed.
Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-02-26 0411ET
