Mumbai, Nov. 28 - The Indian rupee is expected to receive support from dollar inflows this week, while bonds will track moves in oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields.

MSCI increasing India's weight in its Emerging Market India index from Nov. 30 is expected to drive inflows of about $1.5 billion, according to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research.

"You would usually see a large part of these flow reach the spot market on the day the changes are effective or the day before," a forex trader at a bank said.

"While the flows are an obvious help (to the rupee), can't see much happening (on USD/INR)."

He pegs the rupee in a 83.25 to 83.40 range this week with risks "slightly" towards rupee weakness.

The rupee ended last Friday at a record closing low of 83.3675 to the U.S. dollar, after trading in a 83.2250 to 83.38 band during the week.

Apart from the inflows, "attention should be directed towards oil prices" with the OPEC+ meeting rescheduled to Nov. 30, Arnob Biswas, head FX research at SMC Global Securities, said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed a ministerial meeting that was originally scheduled for Nov. 26.

"Not that rupee is responding to much nowadays, but yes, oil prices are always important," Biswas said.

India's 10-year benchmark bond yield rose five basis point (bps) last week to 7.2704%, after a sharp fall in the previous week.

Traders see the Indian 10-year bond in a 7.20%-7.30% range this week, with focus on further moves in global factors and swings in domestic banking system liquidity.

In the near-term, bond yields will continue to track the Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) commentary, inflation, U.S. yields and oil prices, Gaura Sengupta, India economist at IDFC First Bank, said.

"The supply dynamics are favourable for government bonds in Oct-Mar and market has already priced in the RBI’s prolonged pause. The upward pressure on U.S. yields has also eased, which will augur well for government bonds," she added.

U.S. 10-year bond yields ended the week higher but remained below 4.50% as strong economic data unsettled a market that expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates around June as the U.S. economy slows.

Meanwhile, a persistent banking system liquidity deficit has eased some concerns around the RBI's bond sale plan announced in early October.

India's banking system liquidity deficit widened to the highest in nearly five years last week, but the gap is expected to narrow this week.

Tight liquidity in the coming months will mean that there may not be space for the RBI to sell bonds until December, according to market participants.

Bond traders also await cues on whether Indian bonds would be added to Bloomberg Global Aggregate and the Emerging Market Local Currency indexes, after JPMorgan included Indian bonds in its emerging market index in September.

KEY EVENTS: ** U.S. Nov consumer confidence survey - Nov. 28, Tuesday (Reuters poll: 100.4) ** U.S. Q3 GDP second estimate - Nov. 29, Wednesday (7:00 p.m. IST) (Reuters poll: 5.0%) ** U.S. initial weekly jobless claims week to Nov. 25 - Nov. 30, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** U.S. Oct personal consumption expenditure price index - Nov. 30, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** U.S. Nov ISM manufacturing PMI - Dec. 1, Friday (8:30 p.m. IST) (Reporting by Nimesh Vora and Bhakti Tambe; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala)