A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of October 24-28 by Dow Jones Newswires in London.


By Will Horner


GRAINS & OILSEEDS


The future of the Black Sea grains deal is shaping up to be agricultural markets' key concern this week, while weather for South American farmers and macroeconomic developments such as economic data and central bank meetings will also be in focus.

The grain deal, which saw Russia and Ukraine agree to allow shipments of grain to leave Ukraine's Black Sea ports, was hailed as a breakthrough for easing soaring grain prices. But grains markets have been unable to shake concerns that one side could walk away from the deal.

The United Nations--which brokered the deal--and Ukraine are hoping to renew it beyond a November 19 deadline, but Russia has signaled it isn't happy about its implementation. Ukraine has accused Russia of holding back shipments.

"Markets continue to follow news on the Ukrainian export corridor, keeping prices volatile but supported short term," said the U.K.-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. "Longer term, Southern Hemisphere production and recessionary concerns remain watchpoints for market direction," the group said.

Traders are also anticipating a busy fortnight of central bank meetings and economic data. Brazil's central bank meets Wednesday while the European Central Bank meets Thursday. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of Russia meet on Friday. U.S. gross domestic product data is set to be released Thursday.

Those events and data releases will likely have an influence on broader risk sentiment and the dollar, which at its currently elevated levels, is keeping a cap on commodity prices.

"The grain and oilseed markets continue to see significant headwinds from both a strong dollar and from a high VIX," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist, at StoneX. "That leaves these markets trading a choppy sideways pattern for now."


SOFT COMMODITIES


Beyond Brazil's central bank meeting which could influence the course of the Brazilian real and with it prospects for the nation's sugar and coffee exports, traders are tracking a sharp tumble in arabica prices.

Prices of the bean have slumped to their lowest level in 13 months, shedding almost 14% this month alone. On Monday, prices for New York traded futures edged back up 0.3% to $1.91 a pound.

The declines have been driven by "reports of improving growing conditions and increasing availability of Coffee in Brazil," says Jack Scoville at Price Futures Group.

"There is still a threat for a third year of La Nina which could negatively affect Coffee production again next year but so far the crop conditions are called good so producers are selling," he added.


Write to Will Horner at william.horner@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-24-22 1347ET