- By 2028 the
- "Crunch point" is a result of delays in bringing new generation on to the system, increasing demand for power and upcoming retirement of existing assets
- Shortfall would leave
- Mitigation includes extending the use of existing nuclear and dispatchable generation, including biomass, and supporting reduction in peak demand
New independent analysis by Public First, 'Mind the gap: Exploring Britain's energy crunch', commissioned by
Public First's research finds that in 2028 a perfect storm of an increase in demand, the retirement of existing assets, and delays to the delivery of
This shortfall is more than three times the secure de-rated power that Sizewell C will be capable of providing to the system when completed - 2.5GW - and nearly double the gap in 2022 (4GW). Uncertainty for biomass generators, which contribute over 3GW of secure dispatchable power, risks compounding the shortfall by nearly 50%.
The analysis also shows that over the next five years the headroom between secure total supply and peak demand is tightest in 2028. This is when total de-rated capacity is expected to be just 5GW higher than demand in peak times - this represents a significant reduction (c.-40%) from the average expected headroom across 2024-2027 (8.5GW).
The scale of the energy crunch will play out when National Grid ESO runs its T-4 Capacity Market Auction to procure sufficient power generating capacity to keep the lights on in 2027-28. The margin between target capacity the ESO wants to secure (44GW) and how much generation has entered the auction (43.4GW) is the tightest it has ever been since the auctions started ten years ago.
The research underscores that energy security will be a key issue in the next Parliamentary term. Without additional action taken to make up the shortfall, the
The report states building additional new capacity is unlikely to have a material impact in time and that to deliver certainty the Government should:
- Extend the use of existing baseload generation assets which provide secure capacity, including nuclear plants scheduled to retire, and agree transitional arrangements for biomass operators that plan to install bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) technology.
- Work to reduce peak demand by encouraging flexibility and installing more home insulation.
"Delivering energy security is a critical and longstanding challenge for all governments. The need to maintain it while tackling climate change and rapidly decarbonising economies makes the issue all the more acute.
"This research demonstrates the
"Drax plans to massively expand the generation capacity of Cruachan pumped storage power station in
"Setbacks in bringing new nuclear and offshore wind online, the retirement of generation assets and increasing power demand will create an energy crunch point in 2028. But the challenge of keeping the lights on is not set in stone: policymakers have a suite of levers they can pull to ensure that we have a more secure, diverse, and sustainable energy system in the future."
As part of the research, Public First polled
The polling found that energy security remains high on the public agenda with 46% of those polled feeling that there was a medium-high risk of energy shortages this coming winter and almost 41% feel the risk of energy shortages is increasing.
ENDS Notes to Editors: About research:
The link to the report can be found here
Media contacts:
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E: [email protected]
T: 07841 068 415 About Drax:
Drax's c.3,500 employees operate across three principal areas of activity - electricity generation, electricity sales to business customers and compressed wood pellet production and supply to third parties. For more information visit www.drax.com Power generation:
Drax owns and operates a portfolio of renewable electricity generation assets in
Having converted
Its pumped storage, hydro and energy from waste assets in
The Group also aims to build on its BECCS innovation at
The Group has 18 operational pellet plants and developments with nameplate production capacity of around 5 million tonnes a year.
Drax is targeting 8 million tonnes of production capacity by 2030, which will require the development of over 3 million tonnes of new biomass pellet production capacity. The pellets are produced using materials sourced from sustainably managed working forests and are supplied to third party customers in
Drax's pellet plants supply biomass used at its own power station in
Drax supplies renewable electricity to
To find out more go to the website www.energy.drax.com
.
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