The IEA report is entitled Net Zero by 2050, and shows what needs to be done to reduce global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to net zero by 2050, to limit the long-term increase in average global temperatures to 1.5º C, and ensure universal access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030. https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050
To do this requires that "beyond projects already committed as of 2021, there are no new oil and gas fields approved for development." Only two
"The contraction of oil and natural gas production will have far-reaching implications for all the countries and companies that produce these fuels. No new oil and natural gas fields are needed." This will mean a huge cut in projected income for gas-producing countries. "Net zero calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how we produce, transport and consume energy."
"No new natural gas fields are needed... beyond those already under development. Also not needed are many of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) liquefaction facilities currently under construction or at the planning stage. Between 2020 and 2050, natural gas traded as LNG falls by 60%. ... In the 2030s some [gas] fields may be closed prematurely or shut temporarily."
The AEI report puts forward three scenarios:
+ Specific policies that are in place or have been announced by governments. This leads to a global temperature rise of 2.7º. In 2050 natural gas use is 50% higher than now. (This is approximately the projection of the
+ All announced pledges are achieved in full and on time. This leads to a global temperature rise of 2.1º. Natural gas use expands by 10% to 4 350 bcm (billion cubic metres) in 2025 and remains about that level to 2050. (The is what the gas industry is planning for.)
+ IEA net zero. Global temperature rise is held to 1.5º. Natural gas increases to 4 300 (bcm) in 2025, similar to "all announced pledges", but then drops dramatically to 3 700 bcm in 2030 and to 1 750 bcm in 2050. By 2050, natural gas use is 55% lower than in 2020. (Note that by the 2025 peak, only ENI's floating platform will be producing.) This scenario also includes universal access to electricity and clean cooking by 2030.
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