Financials Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Equities

HOG

US4128221086

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

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25.69 ^USD	+4.60%		-5.34%	-14.74%

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Projected Income Statement: Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	3,264	4,540	4,888	4,845	4,122	4,042	4,239	4,192
Change	-	39.1%	7.65%	-0.88%	-14.92%	-1.94%	4.87%	-1.1%
EBITDA ¹	349.9	992	1,061	1,035	-	658.1	797.1	885
Change	-	183.56%	6.92%	-2.38%	-100%	-	21.13%	11.03%
EBIT ¹	164.1	826.9	908.7	779.1	416.6	435.3	532.7	607.9
Change	-	403.75%	9.9%	-14.27%	-46.52%	4.48%	22.38%	14.11%
Interest Paid ¹	-31.12	-30.97	-31.24	-31.24	-30.75	-30.93	-31	-20.59
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-15.73	819.2	931.2	866.9	517.1	484.5	602.8	610.4
Change	-	-	13.67%	-6.91%	-40.34%	-6.32%	24.42%	1.25%
Net income ¹	1.298	650	741	706.6	455.4	383.5	463.3	482.1
Change	-	49,978.89%	14%	-4.64%	-35.56%	-15.77%	20.79%	4.06%
Announcement Date	2/2/21	2/8/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	2/5/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2020 Q1	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2	2026 Q3	2026 Q4
Net sales ¹	1,100	669.3	964	531	1,232	1,332	1,161	816	1,303	1,266	1,437	918.7	1,558	1,198	1,297	791.6	1,476	1,349	876.4	420.5	1,122	1,190	1,118	608.8	1,213	1,287	1,145	639.6
Change	-	-39.15%	44.04%	-44.92%	132.05%	8.07%	-12.83%	-29.69%	59.7%	-2.82%	13.46%	-36.07%	69.57%	-23.09%	8.25%	-38.96%	86.46%	-8.62%	-35.03%	-52.02%	166.81%	6.04%	-6.05%	-45.53%	99.24%	6.08%	-11.04%	-44.13%
EBITDA ¹	167.5	-19.02	229.1	-27.76	386	338.1	271.5	37.64	328.5	315.7	376.2	40.63	404	259.2	249.7	46.87	304.6	280	145	-	176.7	243	197.2	64.2	224.7	243.8	205.2	56.4
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-12.41%	-19.69%	-86.14%	772.65%	-3.88%	19.15%	-89.2%	894.17%	-35.83%	-3.69%	-81.23%	549.87%	-8.08%	-48.21%	-100%	-	37.48%	-18.85%	-67.44%	250%	8.5%	-15.83%	-72.51%
EBIT ¹	120.1	-67.05	184.5	-73.42	345.8	297	230.4	-5.059	289.2	277.6	338.7	3.558	369.6	221.3	209.3	-21.15	263.1	241.1	105.8	-193.3	115.6	178	167.1	-11.49	147.8	161.4	215.4	8.2
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-14.1%	-22.44%	-	-	-4.02%	22.01%	-98.95%	10,288.11%	-40.12%	-5.45%	-	-	-8.35%	-56.12%	-	-	54.04%	-6.11%	-	-	9.16%	33.43%	-96.19%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-7.755	-7.769	-7.783	-7.814	-7.708	-7.722	-7.779	-7.763	-7.711	-7.72	-8.124	-7.68	-7.72	-7.696	-7.688	-7.683	-7.679	-7.68	-7.707	-7.683	-7.9	-7.9	-7.9	-7.9	-7	-7	-7	-7
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	94.57	-118	132.9	-125.3	340.1	276.1	197.5	5.544	290.6	276.4	341.7	22.57	392	232	238.3	4.57	290.4	264.1	132.9	-170.3	125.2	182.7	168.2	3.667	156.4	170.4	223.8	17.2
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-18.84%	-28.46%	-97.19%	5,141.2%	-4.87%	23.61%	-93.4%	1,637.17%	-40.81%	2.7%	-98.08%	6,253.79%	-9.04%	-49.66%	-	-	45.94%	-7.95%	-97.82%	4,163.99%	8.99%	31.37%	-92.32%
Net income ¹	69.7	-92.22	120.2	-96.4	259.1	206.3	163	21.57	222.5	215.8	261.2	42	304.1	178	198.6	25.81	234.9	218.3	119	-116.9	99.32	144.9	133.7	3.976	125.6	136.2	178.8	14.4
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-20.38%	-21.02%	-86.77%	931.68%	-2.99%	21%	-83.92%	624.02%	-41.45%	11.58%	-87.01%	810.27%	-7.1%	-45.46%	-	-	45.92%	-7.77%	-97.03%	3,058.99%	8.44%	31.24%	-91.94%
Announcement Date	4/28/20	7/28/20	10/27/20	2/2/21	4/19/21	7/21/21	10/27/21	2/8/22	4/27/22	7/28/22	10/26/22	2/2/23	4/27/23	7/27/23	10/26/23	2/8/24	4/25/24	7/25/24	10/24/24	2/5/25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	5,730	4,886	5,717	5,487	5,235	5,485	5,339	5,154
Change	-	-14.73%	17.01%	-4.02%	-4.59%	4.77%	-2.66%	-3.47%
Announcement Date	2/2/21	2/8/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	2/5/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
CAPEX ¹	131	120.2	151.7	207.4	196.6	239.5	236.3	217.6
Change	-	-8.29%	26.2%	36.75%	-5.23%	21.85%	-1.36%	-7.91%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	1,047	855.5	396.8	547.5	867.3	234.8	450.3	-
Change	-	-18.28%	-53.62%	37.98%	58.41%	-72.93%	91.82%	-100%
Announcement Date	2/2/21	2/8/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	2/5/25	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	10.72%	21.85%	21.7%	21.37%	-	16.28%	18.8%	21.11%
EBIT Margin (%)	5.03%	18.21%	18.59%	16.08%	10.11%	10.77%	12.57%	14.5%
EBT Margin (%)	-0.48%	18.04%	19.05%	17.89%	12.55%	11.99%	14.22%	14.56%
Net margin (%)	0.04%	14.32%	15.16%	14.59%	11.05%	9.49%	10.93%	11.5%
FCF margin (%)	32.07%	18.84%	8.12%	11.3%	21.04%	5.81%	10.62%	-
FCF / Net Income (%)	80,650.23%	131.61%	53.55%	77.48%	190.46%	61.21%	97.21%	-
Profitability
ROA	1.05%	5.66%	6.57%	5.98%	3.79%	3.5%	4.2%	4.7%
ROE	6.7%	30.53%	27.16%	22.94%	14.21%	13.08%	18.11%	21.35%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	16.38x	4.92x	5.39x	5.3x	-	8.34x	6.7x	5.82x
Debt / Free cash flow	5.47x	5.71x	14.41x	10.02x	6.04x	23.37x	11.86x	-
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	4.01%	2.65%	3.1%	4.28%	4.77%	5.93%	5.57%	5.19%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	37.46%	12.11%	14.3%	20.03%	-	36.4%	29.64%	24.58%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	12.52%	14.05%	38.22%	37.88%	22.66%	102.02%	52.47%	-
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	-	6.296	3.672	5.202	8.042	4.478	9.523	-
Change	-	-	-41.67%	41.67%	54.58%	-44.32%	112.67%	-
Dividend per Share ¹	0.44	0.6	0.63	0.66	0.69	0.7245	0.7068	0.7697
Change	-	36.36%	5%	4.76%	4.55%	5%	-2.44%	8.9%
Book Value Per Share ¹	11.27	16.61	19.62	22.85	-	25.99	29.26	32.64
Change	-	47.42%	18.12%	16.46%	-	-	12.6%	11.52%
EPS ¹	0.01	4.19	4.96	4.87	3.44	3.201	4.154	4.464
Change	-	41,800%	18.38%	-1.81%	-29.36%	-6.96%	29.78%	7.47%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	153,279	153,877	146,184	139,270	127,327	124,537	124,537	124,537
Announcement Date	2/2/21	2/8/22	2/2/23	2/8/24	2/5/25	-	-	-