3Q21 Analyst Presentation Transcript (PDF)

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HWM.N - Q3 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

EVENT DATE/TIME: NOVEMBER 04, 2021 / 2:00PM GMT

OVERVIEW:

Co. reported 3Q21 revenue of $1.28b and adjusted EPS, excluding special items of $0.27.

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NOVEMBER 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q3 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

C O R P O R A T E P A R T I C I P A N T S

John C. Plant Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive Chairman & CEO

Kenneth J. Giacobbe Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive VP & CFO

Paul Thomas Luther Howmet Aerospace Inc. - VP of IR

C O N F E R E N C E C A L L P A R T I C I P A N T S

David Egon Strauss Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division - Research Analyst

Gautam J. Khanna Cowen and Company, LLC, Research Division - MD & Senior Analyst

George D. Shapiro Shapiro Research - CEO and Managing Partner

Joshua Ward Sullivan The Benchmark Company, LLC, Research Division - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst Matthew Carl Akers Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division - Senior Equity Analyst

Myles Alexander Walton UBS Investment Bank, Research Division - MD & Senior Analyst

Noah Poponak Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division - Equity Analyst

Paretosh Misra Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG, Research Division - Analyst

Philip Ross Gibbs KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division - Director & Equity Research Analyst

Robert Alan Stallard Vertical Research Partners, LLC - Partner

Seth Michael Seifman JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division - Senior Equity Research Analyst

P R E S E N T A T I O N

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Third Quarter 2021 Results. My name is Erica, and I will be your operator for today. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Paul Thomas Luther - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - VP of IR

Thank you, Erica. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Third Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

In addition, we've included some non-GAAP financial measures in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

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NOVEMBER 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q3 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

John C. Plant - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive Chairman & CEO

Thanks, PT. Good morning, and welcome to the call. We'll move quickly through the slides and then get to your questions.

First, let's summarize the headline numbers, starting on Slide #4. Revenue was $1.28 billion, adjusted EBITDA $292 million and EBITDA margin was 22.8%. Each number was within the guidance range provided. More importantly, year-over-year revenues increased for the first time. The revenue was led by Commercial Aerospace, up 15% year-over-year, and contributing to a total increase of 13%. Of note, the Howmet segment leading the increase was Engine Products as previously forecasted.

The company was also able to overcome the challenges once again of the Boeing 787 build rate declines and the supply chain issues limiting commercial truck production, the 787 affecting Fastening Systems and Engineering Structures in particular. Aluminum prices continued their upward surge with aluminum and regional premiums increasing by over $400 per metric ton sequentially and impacting the margin rate by 20 basis points.

Adjusted earnings per share, excluding special items, was $0.27, and cash generated in the quarter was $115 million. AR securitization was unchanged at $250 million. On a sequential basis, Third quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA were up 7% and adjusted earnings per share up 23%.

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was strong at $115 million, which results in a Q3 year-to-date free cash flow at a record $275 million. Ken will provide further details of our debt actions in the quarter, which included a bond tender refinance to fundamentally lower interest costs and thereby improve future free cash flow yield. The combination of debt actions in the third quarter, combined with our first half results and actions, will reduce annual interest expense by approximately $70 million.

In the quarter, we also repurchased approximately 770,000 shares of common stock for $25 million, which increases share repurchases year-to-date to approximately 7 million shares for $225 million. The net result of all these actions plus the reinstatement of the common stock dividend and the $115 million cash inflow resulted in a cash balance of $726 million, similar to that at the end of Q2.

Lastly, we continue to focus on legacy liabilities and have reduced pension and OPEB liabilities by approximately $180 million year-to-date. Moreover, year-to-date pension and OPEB expenses have reduced by approximately 50% compared to last year.

Please move to Slide #5. Revenue for the quarter increased 13% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. As expected, Commercial Aerospace was up 15% year-over-year and 16% sequentially, driven by the Engine Products segment and narrow-body aircraft production. Commercial transportation, namely Wheels, was up 38% year-over-year.

Volume was impacted by supply chain constraints, limiting the Commercial Truck production. The volume reduction in the Wheels business was offset by metal recovery dollars. The industrial gas turbine business continues to grow and was up 26% year-over-year and 6% sequentially, driven by new builds and spares. Defense Aerospace was down 11% year-over-year, driven by reductions in the Joint Strike Fighter builds, but was up 3% sequentially from the second quarter.

At the bottom of the slide, you can see the progress on price, cost reduction and cash management. Price increases are up year-over-year and continue to be in line with expectations. Structural cost reductions have exceeded our annual target of $100 million. Q3 structural cost reductions were $23 million year-over-year and $121 million year-to-date. Every segment achieved a strong year-on-year margin expansion as revenue increased for the first time in the year in aggregate.

In the third quarter, Engine Products had an incremental operating margin of approximately 70%, and Forged Wheels had an incremental operating margin of approximately 45%. Fastening Systems and Engineering Structures both had a higher EBITDA on lower revenue. Fasteners had an operating margin expansion of some 630 basis points, while structures was up 210 basis points. As a result, Howmet's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded a full 800 basis points year-on-year, driven by volume, price and structural cost reductions.

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NOVEMBER 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q3 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $115 million and year-to-date, $275 million, as I said previously. AR securitization is unchanged from the start of the year. Lastly, we have lowered our annualized interest cost by $70 million through a combination of paying down debt and refinancing into low-cost debt.

Please move to Slide #6. Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 22.8%, representing an 800 basis point improvement compared to the third quarter of 2020. The margin for the third quarter was consistent with the last few quarters, despite the cost of adding employees to meet the increasing production demand and the effect on margins of the higher aluminum prices.

In the quarter, Engine Products added approximately 500 employees net, which now brings the total to 800 net additional employees hired for that segment during the second and third quarters. We continue to review the headcount required in our other segments to adjust for future demand requirements.

Now let me turn it over to Ken for further details on revenue by market and the detailed financials.

Kenneth J. Giacobbe - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive VP & CFO

Thank you, John. Please move to markets on Slide 7. Third quarter total revenue was up 13% year-over-year and 7% sequentially. Commercial Aerospace increased to 42% of total revenue, which is an improvement sequentially, but far short of pre-COVID levels of 60%. The third quarter marked the start of the Commercial Aerospace recovery, with commercial aerospace revenue up 15% year-over-year and 16% sequentially. Defense Aerospace was down 11% year-over-year, driven by the Joint Strike Fighter and up 3% sequentially.

Commercial Transportation, which impacts both the Forged Wheels and Fastening Systems segments was up 38% year-over-year, however, flat sequentially after we adjust for the increase in aluminum prices. Finally, the Industrial and Other Markets, which is composed of IGT, oil and gas and general industrial was up 14% year-over-year and down 2% sequentially. IGT, which makes up approximately 45% of this market, continues to be strong and was up a healthy 26% year-over-year and 6% sequentially.

Let's move to Slide 8 for the segment results. As expected, Engine Products year-over-year revenue was 24% higher in the third quarter. Commercial Aerospace was 50% higher, driven by the narrow-body recovery. IGT was 26% higher as demand for cleaner energy continues. Defense Aerospace was down 8% year-over-year, but up 7% sequentially.

Incremental margins for Engine Products were approximately 70% for the quarter despite hiring back approximately 500 workers to prepare for future growth. Operating margin improved 1,200 basis points year-over-year. In the appendix of the presentation, we have provided a schedule which shows each segment's incremental margins for the quarter.

Please move to Slide 9. Also as expected, Fastening Systems year-over-year revenue was 6% lower in the third quarter. Commercial Aerospace was 25% lower as we saw continued production declines for the Boeing 787 and customer inventory corrections. The commercial transportation and industrial markets within the Fastening Systems segments were [up] (added by company after the call) approximately 55% and 19% year-over-year, respectively. Year-over-year Fastening Systems was able to generate $14 million more in operating profit, while revenue declined $17 million. As a result, operating margin improved 630 basis points.

Please move to Slide 10. Engineered Structures year-over-year revenue was 3% lower in the third quarter. Commercial Aerospace was 13% higher as the narrow-body recovery was partially offset by production declines for the Boeing 787. Defense Aerospace was down 21% year-over-year, but was flat sequentially. Year-over-year, Engineered Structures was able to generate $4 million more in operating profit on $7 million of lower revenue. As a result, operating margin improved 210 basis points.

Finally, please move to Slide 11. Forged Wheels year-over-year revenue was 34% higher in the third quarter. On a sequential basis, revenue and operating profit were essentially flat. The segment was able to overcome a 4% decrease in volume due to customer supply chain issues limiting commercial truck production, and a 13% increase in aluminum prices to maintain a healthy operating margin of approximately 27%. Year-over-year

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NOVEMBER 04, 2021 / 2:00PM, HWM.N - Q3 2021 Howmet Aerospace Inc Earnings Call

incremental margins for Forged Wheels were approximately 45% for the quarter. Improved margins were driven by continued cost management and maximizing production in low-cost countries.

Now let's move to Slide 12. We continue to focus on improving our capital structure and liquidity. I would highlight 3 actions. First, in the first half of the year, we paid down approximately $835 million of debt by completing the early redemption of our 2021 and 2022 bonds with cash on hand. The annualized interest expense savings with this action is approximately $47 million.

Second, in the third quarter we tendered $600 million of our 6.875% notes due in 2025 and issued $700 million of 3% notes due in 2029. The annualized interest expense savings with this action is approximately $20 million.

Third, with cash on hand, we repurchased $100 million of our [2024] (corrected by company after the call) notes through an open market repurchase in Q3 and in October, which neutralized the gross debt impact of the tender and refinancing. The annualized interest expense saving with this action is approximately $5 million.

As a result of these actions, we have lowered annualized interest costs by approximately $70 million and smoothed out our future debt maturities. At the end of Q3, gross debt was approximately $4.2 billion, which is similar to Q2. Net debt to EBITDA improved from 3.5x in Q2 to 3.2x despite the deployment of cash for debt refinancing, share buybacks, and dividends. All debt is unsecured, and the next maturity is in October of 2024. Finally, our $1 billion revolving credit facility remains undrawn.

Before turning it back to John to discuss guidance, I would like to point out that there's a slide in the appendix that covers special items for the quarter. Special items for the third quarter were a net charge of approximately $93 million, mainly driven by the costs associated with the bond tender and refinancing completed in the quarter.

Now let me turn it back over to John.

John C. Plant - Howmet Aerospace Inc. - Executive Chairman & CEO

Thanks, Ken. The leading indicators for air travel continue to show improvement, notably for domestic travel. But also we note the sort of revised requirements or these restrictions being lifted for, certainly, transatlantic travel starting this month. As expected, Howmet transitioned to revenue growth in the third quarter, and we expect year-over-year revenue growth will continue into the fourth quarter and to 2022, with a growth of approximately 12% in commercial aerospace and total revenue growth in the fourth quarter of approximately 6%. Growth is expected to continue in 2022.

As expected, the Engine Products business began to grow notably in the third quarter. We expect modest sequential growth in Q4 for Engineered Structures despite continued delays with the 787. Fastening Systems is expected to show growth in the first half of 2022.

In terms of specific numbers, we expect the following: In terms of guidance for Q4, I'll just call out the midpoints, as you can read the slide: Revenue, $1.315 billion; EBITDA, $300 million; EBITDA margin, 22.8%; earnings per share of $0.29. And for the year, we expect revenue to be $5 billion, plus or minus; EBITDA at $1.135 billion; EBITDA margin at 22.7%; earnings per share increased to $1 per share; and cash flow of $450 million.

Moving to the right-hand side of the slide, we expect the following: Second half revenue to be up approximately 8% versus the first half driven by Commercial Aerospace, Commercial Transportation and IGT; Q4 sequential segment incremental operating margins, we expect to be in the order of 28%. Price increases will continue to be greater than 2020, the cost-reduction carryover of $100 million, as already commented, is exceeded. Pension and OPEB contributions of approximately $120 million and CapEx should be in the range of $180 million to $200 million compared to depreciation of approximately $270 million.

Adjusted free cash flow compared to net income continues to be approximately 100%. I'd now like to preview some initial thoughts regarding 2022. An early approximate total revenue guide would be for an increase in annual revenues of 12% to 15%, led by recovery in Commercial Aerospace. In aggregate, our current view is that we see an acceleration during the course of the year, following a fairly flat first quarter compared

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