October 27, 2023

Good profitability and strong operating cash flow despite lower prices and higher wood raw material costs

EBITDA margin on 33%

Sales decreased 14% vs Q3 2022

  • Price/mix -30%, volume 9%, currency 7%

EBITDA decreased 43% vs Q3 2022

  • Lower prices
  • Higher delivery volumes
  • Positive currency effects

SEK 1.7 bn investment in wind power, securing SCAs high degree of self sufficiency in electricity

3

EBITDA (SEKm)

Industrial ROCE 1

1,417

12%

EBITDA margin

Net debt/EBITDA

32.9%

1.4x

1. LTM

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin

3,121

-43%

2,684

2,806

2,608

2,484

1,981

2,055

59%

1,700

53%

52%

53%

50%

1,417

41%

43%

37%

33%

Q3 '21

Q4 '21

Q1 '22

Q2 '22

Q3 '22

Q4 '22

Q1 '23

Q2 '23

Q3 '23

4

Net sales (SEKm)

EBITDA (SEKm)

EBITDA margin

+17%

+20%

1,878

724

37.3%

38.5%

1,612

601

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Price development - Pulpwood and Sawlogs

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

Q3 '21

Q4 '21

Q1 '22

Q2 '22

Q3 '22

Q4 '22

Q1 '23

Q2 '23

Q3 '23

Pulpwood Sawlogs

Stable wood supply to industries

Sales up 17%

  • Higher prices

EBITDA up 20%

  • Higher harvesting level own forest
  • Higher prices

5

Net sales (SEKm)

EBITDA (SEKm)

EBITDA margin

-12%

-54%

1,412

351

24.9%

1,244

161

13.0%

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Price development - Solid Wood Products

120

100

80

60

40

Q3 '21

Q4 '21

Q1 '22

Q2 '22

Q3 '22

Q4 '22

Q1 '23

Q2 '23

Q3 '23

Price index SEK

Sales down 12%

  • Lower prices
  • Higher volumes

EBITDA down 54%

  • Lower prices

6

Stock of sawn pine and spruce wood, Sweden and Finland (k m3)

Price development sawn pine and spruce, Sweden (index)

6,000

Normalized monthly level

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

Production of sawn pine and spruce wood, Sweden and Finland (k m3)

3,000

Normalized monthly level

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

340

290

240

Spruce

190

Pine

140

90

Jan-16

Jul-16

Jan-17

Jul-17

Jan-18

Jul-18

Jan-19

Jul-19

Jan-20

Jul-20

Jan-21

Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22

Jan-23

  • Low consumption but balanced producer stock levels
  • Lower production in all regions
  • Low consumer stock levels

7

Note: Normalized monthly level 2016-2022.

Source: Skogsindustrierna.

Net sales (SEKm)

EBITDA (SEKm)

EBITDA margin

-14%

-80%

1,897

848

44.7%

1,636

173

10.5%

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Price development - NBSK

140

120

100

80

Q3 '21

Q4 '21

Q1 '22

Q2 '22

Q3 '22

Q4 '22

Q1 '23

Q2 '23

Q3 '23

Price index SEK

Ramp up of new CTMP line according to plan

Sales down 14%

  • Lower prices
  • Higher volumes
  • Positive currency effects

EBITDA down 80%

  • Lower prices
  • Higher wood raw material costs + Positive currency effects

Planned maintenance stop in Östrand started at end of quarter

8

NBSK pulp price (USD/t) vs deliveries (Mt)

15.0

14.5

14.0

13.5

13.0

12.5

NBSK deliveries

NBSK PIX Price Europe (RHS)

Softwood pulp inventories (days of supply)

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

Apr-17

Jul-17

Apr-18

Jul-18

Apr-19

Jul-19

Apr-20

Jul-20

Apr-21

Jul-21

Apr-22

Jul-22

Apr-23

Jul-23

Jan-17

Oct-17

Jan-18

Oct-18

Jan-19

Oct-19

Jan-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Hardwood pulp inventories (days of supply)

1,600

80

1,500

1,400

70

1,300

60

1,200

1,100

50

1,000

40

900

30

800

700

20

600

Apr-17

Jul-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Jul-18

Oct-18

Apr-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Jul-23

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

  • European price reached bottom in Q3, price increases announced from October
  • Improving demand in China since May
  • Inventories still on high levels for softwood pulp

9

Net sales (SEKm)

EBITDA (SEKm)

EBITDA margin

-18%

-65%

1,694

719

42.4%

1,385

253

18.3%

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

Q3 2023

Price development - Kraftliner

Ramp up new paper machine Obbola according to plan

Sales down 18%

  • Lower prices
  • Higher volumes
  • Positive currency effects

EBITDA down 65%

  • Lower prices

140

120

100

80

Q3 '21

Q4 '21

Q1 '22

Q2 '22

Q3 '22

Q4 '22

Q1 '23

Q2 '23

Q3 '23

Planned maintenance stop in Munksund

Price index SEK

10

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SCA - Svenska Cellulosa AB published this content on 27 October 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 27 October 2023 08:27:40 UTC.