Urban Mobility Trends: February 2022

URBAN MOBILITY TRENDS FROM COVID-19

February 2022 edition

Since July 2020 we have surveyed thousands of people across cities in Australia and North America to track the impact of COVID-19 on mobility.

From how we work to how we shop-COVID-19 has had an obvious impact on the way we live our lives and move around cities. The periodic reduction in case numbers and restrictions on movement have given us some insight into how permanent these changes may be, with definite trends in mobility emerging.

Research for our fourth Industry Report, Urban Mobility Trends from COVID-19 was conducted in early 2022 in the midst of the Omicron wave, the latest variant to hit Australia and North America. The survey asked people how they expected their everyday life may change as a result of COVID-19. We have compared the latest results to when we first asked some of the same questions earlier in the pandemic.

Research

Online survey conducted between 21 January and 9 February 2022

5,022 respondents from across Australia (Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane), United States of America (Virginia, Maryland) and Canada (Montreal)*

Survey commissioned by Transurban and conducted by Nature

*Approximately 1,000 residents from each Australian city, the United States of America and Canada

22%

fewer people in surveyed cities across Australia and 25% fewer in the Greater Washington Area expect to use public transport daily post-pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic

16%

more people in surveyed cities across Australia and 7% more in the Greater Washington Area expect to use private vehicles daily post-pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic

transurban.com/mobility-trends

How we'll move

Throughout the pandemic we have observed traffic and congestion levels decline steeply when government- mandated restrictions on movement are introduced. However, these impacts tend to be short-lived, with traffic returning quickly once restrictions are eased. In some cases, traffic and congestion have returned to levels above pre-pandemic once restrictions are removed.

Since our first survey in July 2020, we have consistently found an increasing preference for private vehicle travel over public transport. Our latest research shows on average 16% more people, across Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane and 7% more people in the Greater Washington Area intend to use private vehicles every day post-pandemic, compared to their pre-pandemic use, Figure 1. When it comes to public transport, 22% fewer people, on average, in surveyed cities across Australia

and 25% fewer people in the Greater Washington Area say they intend to use public transport every day. It's possible

that the uptake of flexible work practices throughout the pandemic (see page 4), coupled with ongoing concerns regarding personal health and safety in public places are contributing factors. Figure 3 shows 44% of respondents in surveyed cities across Australia and 49% in North America said they felt unsafe using public transport. Another factor may be the impact the Omicron wave had on the availability of the public transport workforce, and in turn, the timetabling of public transport services.

While daily public transport use looks likely to decline, the number of people who intend to use it a few times a week post-pandemic has increased in the Australian cities surveyed and Montreal, Figure 2. In Australia, it appears respondents in Sydney are keen to get out and about with more people likely to use public transport and private vehicles once the risk of COVID-19 has passed, compared to their pre-pandemic use. Furthermore in Sydney more people intend to use bikes every day post- pandemic when compared to Melbourne and Brisbane.

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FIGURE 1: HOW TRANSPORT USERS EXPECT THEIR USE WILL CHANGE POST-PANDEMIC-DAILY USERS IN MELBOURNE, SYDNEY, BRISBANE, GREATER WASHINGTON AREA, MONTREAL

Melbourne

	PUBLIC TRANSPORT
Sydney	Brisbane	GWA*	Montreal*	Melbourne
		26%

Sydney

PRIVATE VEHICLES

Brisbane

24%

GWA*

Montreal*

20%	-17%
-
	42%	-41%
	-

	8%
-3%	-3%
	-20%

2%

5%		-15%	7%	11%
- -22%	26%	-25%
	-
	-41%		-2%
		-6%

8%	6%	13%
-3%

			12%
	10%
0%

5%

7%

-3%

-7%

Fewer people in Melbourne, Brisbane, and the Greater Washington Area intend to use public transport ever day compared to their pre-pandemic use. On average, daily public transport use for Australians is expected to be 22% below pre-pandemic levels.

More people in all cities except Montreal intend to use private vehicles every day compared to their pre-pandemic use. On average, daily private vehicle use for Australians is expected to be 16% above pre-pandemic levels.

FIGURE 2: HOW TRANSPORT USERS EXPECT THEIR USE WILL CHANGE POST-PANDEMIC-REGULAR USERS (TRAVELLING SEVERAL TIMES A WEEK) IN MELBOURNE, SYDNEY, BRISBANE, GREATER WASHINGTON AREA, MONTREAL

Melbourne

Sydney

60%

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Brisbane

57%

GWA*

Montreal*

		PRIVATE VEHICLES
Melbourne	Sydney	Brisbane	GWA*	Montreal*

8%	24%	14%
-6%

			32%
				30%
9%

			37%
10%		25%

-6%

-45%

8%

23%

15%

9%

5%

-4%

6%

2% 2%

-4%

10%

10%

2%
-9%	-7%	5%	-4%
		-
		18%

More people in all cities except in the Greater Washington Area expect to use public transport regularly (ie several times a week).

More people in all cities except for Brisbane and Montreal expect to use private vehicles regularly (ie several times a week).

*GWA and Montreal were not included in the January 2021 and July 2021 surveys

JUL 2020 EXPECTATION

JAN 2021 EXPECTATION

JUL 2021 EXPECTATION

JAN 2022 EXPECTATION

FIGURE 3: HOW SAFE PEOPLE FEEL IN DIFFERENT SPACES GIVEN THE CURRENT COVID-19 TRANSMISSION RATES IN THEIR STATE / PROVINCE-AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA

Participating in outdoor activities (eg parks, events, jogging)																																						Australia
4%		8%	13%													36%												40%
																																						North America
	4%		7%	14%				32%													42%
Visiting people in their homes																																					Australia
5%				15%				18%												38%							24%
																																						North America
	8%			20%			18%									35%					20%
Attending indoor appointments (eg doctors, dentists, hairdressers)																																			Australia
6%				18%					18%											37%					21%
																																						North America
	5%				15%					16%													38%								26%
Working at your workplace																																			Australia
7%			18%				17%											31%								27%
																																						North America
	9%			15%					18%											29%									30%
Participating in indoor activities (eg restaurants, movies, shopping)																												Australia
10%								23%		18%						33%				16%
																																						North America
	11%							21%		19%						32%				17%
Using public transit / transport																															Australia
				17%								27%						18%	24%	13%
																																						North America
					22%					27%							20%							20%		11%
Carpooling																															Australia
				22%					26%							21%							20%		11%
																																						North America
					21%							26%								22%							20%		12%
									VERY UNSAFE		SOMEWHAT UNSAFE			NEITHER SAFE NOR UNSAFE		SOMEWHAT SAFE		VERY SAFE

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Despite the Omicron wave disrupting holiday plans in Australia and North America towards the end of December 2021 and into January 2022, 67% of respondents in surveyed cities across Australia still expect to travel domestically and/or internationally in 2022-up seven percentage points compared to January 2021, Figure 4. In North America 58% plan to travel domestically and/or internationally in 2022, Figure 5.

FIGURE 4: PLANS TO TRAVEL IN 2022 COMPARED TO 2021-AUSTRALIA

Holiday plans

68%

	Yes,	40%			47%
domestic only
40%			41%
	Yes,
			4%										44%
international
	4%
									46%
	only
										Why not?
Yes, both	23%				27%
16%													29%
		21%
	No						32%
	25%
								40%
													3%
Don't know	12%
15%								4%

No need to travel

Ongoing concerns regarding personal safety around COVID-19

Cost or financial constraints

Risk of being stuck in another state / country

Other reasons

of men intend to travel domestically and/or internationally, nine percentage points higher than average for women across Australia and North America

69%

of people aged 18-44 intend to travel domestically and/or

JANUARY 2022

JANUARY 2021

internationally, six percentage points higher than the average across Australia

FIGURE 5: PLANS TO TRAVEL IN 2022-NORTH AMERICA*

	Yes,
	30%				47%
domestic only
	Yes,
		6%						40%
international
	only
Yes, both							32%
22%				Why not?
	No	29%							19%

No need to travel

Ongoing concerns regarding personal safety around COVID-19

Cost or financial constraints

Risk of being stuck in another state / country

and North America

Don't know 13%4% Other reasons

*North America was not included in January 2021 survey		JANUARY 2022

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How we'll work

In January 2021 we took an in-depth look at how COVID-19 had impacted workplace practices in Australia and people's expectations about whether these changes would remain once the risk of COVID-19 had passed. In this report we have asked many of same questions to see how attitudes in Australia have changed one year on, and surveyed people in North America on the topic for the first time.

Overall, 74% of respondents in Australia and North America said their employer is offering at least one type of flexible work option. In surveyed cities across Australia 75% of people are offered flexible work up 24 percentage points from 51% in January 2021, Figure 6. In North America, 73% of respondents have access to flexible work, Figure 7.

Across all surveyed markets, 87% of respondents expect to do most of their work back in their workplace once the risk of COVID-19 has passed, which

is consistent with our findings in July 2020 (86%) and January 2021 (87%).

The average number of days respondents expect to work from home once the risk of COVID-19 has passed is 1.7, down from

2.8 when we asked the same question in July 2020.

This increase in availability of flexible work suggests that employers are getting more creative with what they can offer. For example, employers who are unable to accommodate employees working from home, may have found ways to offer employees flexibility in the form of varied start and finish times.

Across surveyed cities in Australia and North America the most commonly available and utilised type of flexible work is working remotely, followed by varied start and finish times and varied leave options.

The availability of flexible work options, or lack thereof, could drive people's current and future employment choices, with 50% of Australian respondents and 47% of North American respondents considering changing employers now or in the future if their flexible working preferences are not catered for, Figure 8.

Around a fifth of all respondents said they would be willing to switch to a job with less seniority, longer commute time and increased workload if the new employer offered flexible working options, Figure 9.

87%

expect to do most of their work back in their workplace

1.7

average number of days per week people expect to work from home once the risk of COVID-19 has passed, down from 2.8 in July 2020

In our February 2021 reportwe explained how the adoption of flexible work and/or school hours in our Australian markets could help spread peak-hour traffic and prevent congestion returning to pre- COVID-19 levels or worse. Such changes could improve the efficiency of transport networks if implemented on a large scale.

In our most recent survey we asked people in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane with school-aged children what would help them avoid commuting in peak hour. Over half said flexible work in the form of varied start and finish times and working from home, followed by one in six who said changing the start and finish times of school and day care, Figure 10.

FIGURE 6: AVAILABILITY AND UPTAKE OF FLEXIBLE WORK-AUSTRALIA

75%		FLEXIBLE WORK OPTIONS OFFERED AND THEIR UPTAKE
Working remotely and / or from home																			50%	61%
offered flexible															38%	47%
work in 2022
		Varied start / finish times														35%				48%
51%							26%	37%
		Varied leave options						17%								36%
			14%	29%
offered flexible
work in 2021
Condensed work week	12%			23%
				11%			21%
		Split shifts		11%			22%
				10%				19%
		Job share arrangements	11%			21%
			10%				18%
							OFFERED IN JAN 2022		UPTAKE IN JAN 2022		OFFERED IN JAN 2021			UPTAKE IN JAN 2021

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FIGURE 7: AVAILABILITY AND UPTAKE OF FLEXIBLE WORK-NORTH AMERICA*

73%			FLEXIBLE WORK OPTIONS OFFERED AND THEIR UPTAKE
Working remotely and / or from home
										44%			54%
offered flexible
work in 2022
		Varied start / finish times
						35%	47%
		Varied leave options
		14%	37%
		Condensed work week
			10%			26%
		Split shifts
					19%	23%
		Job share arrangements
		12%		20%
*North America was not included in January 2021 survey											OFFERED IN JAN 2022		UPTAKE IN JAN 2022

FIGURE 8: WILLINGNESS TO CHANGE EMPLOYERS IF FLEXIBLE WORKING PREFERENCES WERE NOT CATERED FOR -AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA

AUSTRALIA	11%	NORTH AMERICA	13%
	considering changing		considering changing
	employers now		employers now

50% NO

50% YES

53% NO

47% YES

39%

would consider changing employers in the future

FIGURE 9: WHAT PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO SACRIFICE TO SWITCH TO AN EMPLOYER OFFERING FLEXIBLE WORKING -AUSTRALIA, NORTH AMERICA

Less senior position		21%
22%
Longer commute time	21%
21%
Increased workload	21%
25%
Fewer promotion opportunities	19%
20%
Reduced salary	16%
	14%
Reduced benefits	15%
13%

35%

would consider changing employers in the future

FIGURE 10: WHAT WOULD HELP AVOID COMMUTING IN PEAK HOUR-AUSTRALIA (UNDER 61-YEAR-OLDS WITH CHILDREN LIVING AT HOME)

Work-from-home days
54%
Flexible work start / end times
53%
Nothing / none
18%
Changed school or day care hours
15%
Other	1%

AUSTRALIA

NORTH AMERICA

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