Q4 and full year 2019 Results Conference Call
Rainer Seele
Chairman of the Executive Board and CEO
February 6, 2020
OMV Aktiengesellschaft
Disclaimer
This report contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terms such as "outlook," "expect," "anticipate," "target," "estimate," "goal," "plan," "intend," "may," "objective," "will", and similar terms or by their context. These forward-looking statements are based on beliefs and assumptions currently held by and information currently available to OMV. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, both known and unknown, because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of OMV. Consequently, the actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Therefore, recipients of this report are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.
Neither OMV nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any of the forward-looking statements contained in this report. OMV disclaims any obligation to update these forward-looking statements to reflect actual results, revised assumptions and expectations, and future developments and events. This report does not contain any recommendation or invitation to buy or sell securities in OMV.
2 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Macro environment - Weaker market environment than in Q4/18 in Upstream and Downstream
Oil prices
USD/bbl | |||||
70 | 69 | 63 | 69 | 62 | 63 |
60 | 62 | 60 | 66 | 59 | 61 |
50 | |||||
40 | |||||
30 | Average Brent price | ||||
20 | |||||
Average realized crude price | |||||
10 | |||||
0 | |||||
Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | Q4/19 |
Gas prices
EUR/MWh
30 | 25.0 | Realized gas price (Upstream) 1 | ||||||
Central European Gas Hub | ||||||||
25 | 19.5 | |||||||
20 | ||||||||
15.5 | 13.0 | |||||||
15 | ||||||||
11.2 | ||||||||
13.7 | 13.6 | |||||||
10 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | |||||
5 | ||||||||
0 | ||||||||
Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 | Q4/19 |
OMV indicator refining margin
USD/bbl
6 | 5.2 | 5.5 | ||||
5 | 4.0 | |||||
4 | ||||||
3.2 | ||||||
3 | ||||||
2 | ||||||
1 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 |
Ethylene/propylene net margin 2
EUR/t
600 | 504 | 452 | 475 | |||
500 | 441 | |||||
400 | ||||||
300 | ||||||
200 | ||||||
100 | ||||||
0 | ||||||
Q4/18 | Q1/19 | Q2/19 | Q3/19 |
5.0
Q4/19
363
Q4/19
Note: All figures are quarterly averages | |
3 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020 | 1Converted to MWh using a standardized calorific value across the portfolio |
2 | Spread between market prices of ethylene/propylene and naphtha including standard processing consumption |
Key messages
FINANCIAL
PERFORMANCE
Clean CCS Operating Result of
EUR 781 mn(-26%y-o-y)impacted by weaker market environment in Upstream and Downstream
Quarterly cash flow from operating
activities 1of EUR 963 mn
Dividend Per Share of EUR 2.00
(+ 14% vs. 2018)
1Excluding net working capital effects
STRONG | DELIVERING THE | ||
OPERATIONS | STRATEGY | ||
Quarterly production of | Agreed to sell share in mature oil | ||
505 kboe/d | field inNew Zealand | ||
Production cost | |||
atUSD 6.4/boe | |||
Refineryutilization rate of | |||
98% |
4|OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Clean CCS Operating Result impacted by weaker market environment and higher depreciation
Clean CCS Operating Result
EUR mn
Upstream | Corporate & Other, Consolidation | |
Downstream |
1,053
949
Clean CCS Net Income attributable to stockholders
EUR mn
Clean CCS Earnings Per Share
EUR
1.50
1.40
578
781
449
459
490
457
310
0.95
445490
385
Q4/18 | Q3/19 | Q4/19 |
Q4/18Q3/19Q4/19
Q4/18Q3/19Q4/19
5 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Upstream - Higher gas sales volumes offset by weaker market environment, fewer oil liftings in Norway, and higher depreciation
Clean Operating Result | Q4/19 vs. Q4/18 | |||||
Weaker market environment | ||||||
EUR mn | ||||||
(119)-2% | Realized oil price decreased by 2% | |||||
| Realized gas price decreased by 18% | |||||
578 | ||||||
Positive FX impact due to stronger USD/EUR | ||||||
91 | 48 | 75 | Production of 505 kboe/d (up by +58 kboe/d): | |||
459 | ||||||
New Zealand (+31 kboe/d) due to acquisition of Shell's assets | ||||||
Malaysia (+15 kboe/d) following SapuraOMV acquisition | ||||||
Norway (+10 kboe/d) mainly due to Aasta Hansteen | ||||||
UAE (+5 kboe/d) following Umm Lulu/Sarb ramp-up | ||||||
Libya (+5 kboe/d) | ||||||
Romania (-6 kboe/d) mainly due to natural decline | ||||||
+50 kboe/d higher sales volumes; increase mostly in gas, fewer oil | ||||||
liftings in Norway | ||||||
Q4/18 | Market effects 1 | Operational | DD&A 2 | Q4/19 | Production costs almost flat at USD 6.4/boe (+2%) | |
performance | ||||||
1Market effects defined as oil and gas prices, foreign exchange impact, price effect on royalties, and | Higher depreciation due to acquisitions and higher production in | |||||
hedging, selling, and distribution costs in Russia | Norway and Libya | |||||
2Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization |
6 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Downstream - Weaker market environment in petrochemicals partially offset by stronger Gas and ADNOC contribution
Clean CCS Operating Result
EUR mn
(59) | |||||
-13% | |||||
445 | |||||
Gas | 64 | 79 | 36 | 17 | 385 |
82 | |||||
381 | |||||
Oil | 303 | ||||
Q4/18 | Market effects | Operational | Borealis | Q4/19 | |
performance | contribution |
1Market effects defined as refining indicator margin and petrochemical margins
Q4/19 vs. Q4/18
Oil
- Weaker market environment
- Refining indicator margin at USD 5/bbl(-4%)
- Ethylene/propylene net margins at EUR 363/t(-28%)
- Operational performance
- Refinery utilization rate at 98%
- Normalized regional supply situation; lower retail margins and commercial volumes
- Decreased contribution from petrochemicals(-56%); lower margins partially offset by reduced feedstock costs
- Positive ADNOC contribution
- Lower contribution from Borealis(-27%) mainly due to a decreased contribution from Borouge, partially offset by positive inventory effects
Gas
- Higher natural gas sales
- Positive storage effects due to realization of summer/winter spreads
7 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020 | Baumgarten incident insurance reimbursement in Q4/18 |
2019 cash flow from operating activities excluding net working capital effects at EUR 4.3 bn
Organic cash flow 12m/19
EUR bn
4.2 | 4.3 | Cash flows 12m/19 vs. 12m/18 |
Increase of sources of funds by EUR 41 mn | ||
Borealis dividends in Q4/19 of EUR 153 mn (FY/19: EUR 297 | ||
mn, FY/18: EUR 360 mn) | ||
2.5 | Net working capital effects of EUR (208) mn (12m/18: EUR 173 mn) | |
2.1 | Organic cash flow from investing activities1at EUR (1.9) bn (12m/18: | |
EUR (1.9) bn) | ||
Organic free cash flow before dividends of EUR 2.1 bn | ||
(12m/18: EUR 2.5 bn) | ||
Payment of dividends of EUR 858 mn (12m/18: EUR 779 mn) | ||
Inorganic cash flow from investing activities of EUR (2.7) bn | ||
12m/18 | 12m/19 |
Cash flow from operations excl. net working capital change
Organic free cash flow before dividends 2
- Organic cash flow from investing activities is Cash flow from investing activities excluding divestments and material inorganic cash flow components (e.g. acquisitions).
- Organic free cash flow before dividends is Cash flow from operating activities less Organic cash flow from investing activities.
8 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Strong full year results despite weaker market environment
Clean CCS Operating Result | Cash flow from operating activities 1 |
EUR bn | EUR bn |
Upstream | Downstream | Corporate & Others | ≥4.0 | ||||
~3.0 | |||||||
4.3 | |||||||
3.9 | 4.2 |
3.6 | 3.5 | ||||||||
3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | |||||||
1.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |||||||
1.7 | 1.5 | ||||||||
0.1 | |||||||||
0.0 | |||||||||
1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | |||||
-0.1 | |||||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 2 |
9 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020 | 1Excluding changes in net working capital |
2As of Q1/19 it includes also net changes in short-term provisions. 2018 figures were adjusted. |
Healthy balance sheet
Net debt and gearing ratio
28% | Gearing ratio | 29% | 28% | |
Cash position | |||||||||||||||
EUR bn 1 | |||||||||||||||
21% | |||||||||||||||
2.9 | |||||||||||||||
14% | |||||||||||||||
13% | 4.9 | 4.7 | Undrawn revolving | ||||||||||||
4.0 | Net debt | ||||||||||||||
(EUR bn) | credit facilities | ||||||||||||||
3.0 | EUR bn 1 | ||||||||||||||
2.0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | |||||||||||||
1As of end of 2019 | |||||||||||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | Sep. 30, 19 Dec. 31, 19 |
10 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Delivering on our progressive dividend policy -
Record dividends in 2019
Dividend Per Share
EUR
CAGR | 2.00Record dividend of EUR 2.00 per share for 2019 | ||||
+19% | 1.75 | proposed(+14% vs. 2018) | |||
1.5 | We are committed to delivering an attractive and | ||||
1.20 | predictable shareholder return through the | ||||
1.00 | business cycle | ||||
Progressive dividend policy: OMV aims to increase | |||||
the dividend or at least maintain it at the previous | |||||
year's level | |||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
3.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.6 % | 4.0% | |
Dividend yield |
11 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Outlook 2020
2019 | Outlook 2020 | |
Brent oil price (USD/bbl) | 64 | 60 |
Average realized gas price (EUR/MWh) | 11.9 | <11.9 |
Total hydrocarbon production (kboe/d) | 487 | ~500 1 |
OMV European indicator refining margin (USD/bbl) | 4.4 | >5.0 |
Ethylene/propylene net margin (EUR/t) | 433 | <400 |
Utilization rate European refineries (%) | 97% | ~95% |
Organic CAPEX (EUR bn) | 2.3 | 2.4 |
E&A expenditures (EUR mn) | 360 | 350 |
1Depending on the security situation in Libya
12 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Move towards a lower-carbon future
More gas, | More valuable | Innovative |
less oil | products, burn less | technology |
13 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
BACKUP
OMV Aktiengesellschaft
Upstream - Stronger market environment offset by lower oil sales volumes and higher E&A expenses
Clean Operating Result | Q4/19 vs. Q3/19 |
EUR mn | Stronger market environment |
+9 | Realized oil price increased by 3% | ||||
Realized gas price increased by 5% | |||||
449 | 59 | 63 | 13 | 459 | Production of 505 kboe/d (+25 kboe/d) |
Russia (+17 kboe/d) due to annual maintenance in Q3/19 and | |||||
seasonality | |||||
Norway (+7 kboe/d) | |||||
Libya (+2 kboe/d) | |||||
+12 kboe/d (1.1 mn boe) higher sales mainly due to higher | |||||
production in Russia, partially offset by fewer oil liftings in Norway | |||||
Exploration well in New Zealand (Gladstone 1) write-off | |||||
Production costs almost flat USD 6.4/boe (+1%) | |||||
Stable depreciation level | |||||
Q3/19 | Market effects 1 | Operational | DD&A 2 | Q4/19 | |
performance |
- Market effects defined as oil and gas prices, foreign exchange impact, price effect on royalties and hedging, selling and distribution costs in Russia
- Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization
15 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Downstream - Lower earnings impacted by weaker refining and petrochemical margins, partially offset by gas result
Clean CCS Operating Result
EUR mn | Q4/19 vs. Q3/19 |
(105) | Oil | |||||
490 | Weaker market environment | |||||
25 | ||||||
57 | Lower refining margin (-8%) | |||||
23 | 25 | 385 | Lower ethylene/propylene net margins (-18%) | |||
Gas | ||||||
82 | Operational performance | |||||
Exceptionally high utilization rate (98%) | ||||||
Lower total refined product sales (-8%) due to seasonality | ||||||
465 | and normalized supply regional constraints | |||||
Positive ADNOC contribution | ||||||
303 | Lower Borealis contribution driven by lower integrated polyolefin | |||||
margins and seasonality effect | ||||||
Oil | Gas | |||||
Significantly higher natural gas sales, mainly driven by Germany | ||||||
Q3/19 | Market effects | 1 | Operational | Borealis | Q4/19 | Higher storage business result |
performance | contribution |
1Market effects defined as refining indicator margin and petrochemical margins
16 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Operational KPIs
Hydrocarbon production | Refined product sales | |||||||||
kboe/d | mn t | |||||||||
447 | 480 | 505 | 5.25 | 5.60 | 5.17 | |||||
Hydrocarbon sales | Refinery utilization rate | |||||||||
mn boe | % | |||||||||
39.4 | 42.8 | 43.9 | 98 | 96 | 98 | |||||
Q4/18 | Q3/19 | Q4/19 | Q4/18 | Q3/19 | Q4/19 |
Retail sales
mn t
1.81 | |
1.58 | 1.64 |
Q4/18 Q3/19 Q4/19
Natural gas sales
TWh
44.7
32.7
27.2
Q4/18 Q3/19 Q4/19
17 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Strong balance sheet
Balance sheet Dec. 31, 2019 vs. Sep. 30, 2019
EUR bn
40.3 | 40.4 | 40.4 | 40.3 |
Stockholders' equity | 13.0 | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||
Tangible & | 20.9 | 20.6 | ||||||||||||||||
intangible assets | ||||||||||||||||||
Non-controlling interests | 3.9 | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||
Trade payables | 4.2 | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||
Other | 8.8 | 8.3 | Bonds and other | 7.6 | 8.1 | |||||||||||||
interest-bearing debts | ||||||||||||||||||
non-current assets | ||||||||||||||||||
Inventories | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||
Trade receivables | 1.9 | Provisions | ||||||||||||||||
5.9 | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||
3.1 | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Cash | Liabilities associated | |||||||||||||||||
0.2 | ||||||||||||||||||
2.9 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Assets held for sale | 3.2 | with assets held for sale | ||||||||||||||||
0.2 | Other liabilities | 5.6 | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||
Other current assets | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||||
2.5 | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Sep 30, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | Dec 31, 2019 | Sep 30, 2019 |
- Assets and liabilities held for sale impacted by the reclassification of the 69% stake in Maari field in New Zealand as well as 40 marginal oil and gas fields in Romania
- EUR 500 mn bond repaid in Q4/19
18 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
Sensitivities of OMV Group in 2020
Annual impact 1 | Clean CCS Operating | Operating cash flow |
in EUR mn | Result | |
Brent oil price (USD +1/bbl) | +60 | +25 |
OMV invoiced gas price (EUR +1/MWh) | +140 | +90 |
OMV indicator refining margin (USD +1/bbl) 2 | +110 | +85 |
Ethylene/propylene net margin (EUR +10/t) | +15 | +10 |
EUR-USD (USD changes by USD 0.01) | +25 | +15 |
1Excluding hedging | ||
2Excluding at-equity accounted investments; does not include inventory impact | ||
Materially different Brent and FX levels (vs. current levels) would lead to different sensitivity results. |
19 |OMV Group, Q4 and full year 2019 Conference Call, February 6, 2020
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OMV AG published this content on 06 February 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 06 February 2020 13:27:03 UTC