Analysis: Interest Rates

Rates come to their senses

In the absence of significant macroeconomic data, interest rates are easing after the central bank announcements made earlier this month. We'll be keeping an eye on future movements alongside the...

Currencies: Endgame for the dollar?

Close it down. The central bank ball ended last week, and everyone is keeping score. A quick way to understand what investors are thinking is to take a look at currencies, which are classically...

Rates: US 10-years going down the slope?

U.S. yields have gone straight down and equities are rising. All because central bankers kept their promises. Here's a look back at a key week.

Rates: The ECB leads the way

Last week, the European Central Bank unsurprisingly kept its key rates unchanged, while maintaining its hawkish stance. It's only a short step from there to saying that the Fed will do the same next...

Rates: Hit but not sunk

The US 10-year yield briefly touched 5% during the session. What happens now? Is a trend reversal possible? Let's take a look at the options available.

Rates: Beautiful curves

I've had enough of recession talks! For months, economists, pessimists and market-timers have all announced the crash of the decade, but nothing yet has come. US indices remain really high. Is dumb...

Rates: 336,000 jobs created?!

One of the advantages of writing a weekly column is to be able to take a step back from the multitude of macroeconomic data available. This week, we're going to take another look at the monthly US...

Interest rates: The US 10-year hits 4.68%

One of the pillars of the current narrative is that inflation will rapidly return to around 2%, with the corollary that central banks will adopt a more accommodating stance. While recent economic...

Rates: It's the end of the party for central banks

The past two weeks have been marked by a festival of central bank activity. After the ECB, the much-anticipated Fed followed suit, before passing the torch to the central banks of Sweden, England and...

Rates: ECB raises rates for the last time

The European Central Bank soothed investors' sensibilities by raising its key rates for the tenth time to 4.5%, while warning that the breakeven point had certainly been reached. In other words, the...

Rates: a well-oiled narrative (with no room for hiccups)

In light of the latest macroeconomic statistics, investors continue to favor a central scenario based on four pillars: the end of the monetary tightening cycle, followed by a rate cut as early as...

Rates: A very narrow path

Not too hot, not too cold. Like the children's tale, Goldilocks, investors love a happy medium. In this game, the path to a soft landing for the US economy is as tortuous as it is narrow. Here's how.

Currencies: Talk about a strategy!

Following on from my weekly commentary on interest rates, I wanted once again to make the link between monetary policy and the foreign exchange market. Due to diametrically opposed policies, the...

Bonds burn on as China rate cut underwhelms

There's been little let up in this month's U.S. bond burn and China continues to fall short of what markets think is needed to stabilise its economy - making for another nervy start to the financial...

Rates: Goodbye inflation

The latest statistics from the United States have set the world alight. While the interest-rate market was logically the first to be impacted, all asset classes were equally affected, including gold,...

Rates: Caution advised

We had to wait until the sixth day of July to see a clear bearish session on the equity markets. The reason? Poor economic statistics from the four corners of the globe and more hawkish than expected...

Interest rates: In Sintra, hawks no longer scare doves

For months, we've been told that recession would soon hit the developed economies, and that we should expect the worst on the stock market. Except that, for the time being, and with all due respect to...

Rate: God Save the Queen (from inflation)

Or should I say God Save the King, which is now the official name of the English national anthem since the death of the Queen. She must be turning over in her grave at the sight of inflation which is...

Rates: Go! One last one

How about another round of tightening? Because in essence, that's the message delivered by both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in their post-announcement speeches. Let there be...