AI, Aviation, Silver: The Great Silent Shortage

Three markets, three points of tension, and the same underlying message: supply is faltering in the face of structural demand. From AI to aviation and precious metals, here is an overview of the vulnerabilities emerging as April comes to a close.

Silver: The Deceptive Easing of the Deficit

At first glance, the Metals Focus chart might almost suggest a sigh of relief: following the 2022 shock and its 250-million-ounce shortfall, the 2026 deficit has narrowed to just 46 Moz. However, in the intervening period, silver surged from under $30 per ounce in early 2025 to nearly $120 in January 2026.

The Silver Institute provides the true diagnosis: while global solar installations continue to grow, silver demand from the photovoltaic sector is declining, driven by thrifting (reducing silver content per panel) and the outright substitution of the metal with alternative materials. Nevertheless, physical pressure remains acute: available stocks in London plummeted to 17% in October 2025, a historic low that caused leasing rates to explode.

Source: Global Markets Investor

The Jet Fuel Shock

Since February, airfares have been soaring across all international routes. This is no longer a mere fluctuation but a massive shock. Some ticket prices have jumped by more than 400%. A Bangkok-to-Frankfurt flight has risen from $474 to $2,870.

This surge is explained by the jet fuel crisis, with prices increasing by over 70% in just six weeks. This spike is driven by conflict in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions. Since only 10% of a barrel of oil is refined into jet fuel, supply is limited and highly sensitive to outages. Europe is particularly vulnerable, with stocks representing approximately six weeks of consumption. Hubs like London are on the front lines, a reality reflected in the ticket prices to these destinations.

Source: Global Markets Investor

Ambitious Forecasts for Data Centers

The race for AI infrastructure is underway, but targets are proving difficult to meet. According to SightLine Climate, 16.2 GW of data capacity is scheduled for completion by 2026. Yet, only 5 GW is currently under construction. Construction lead times exceed one year, and the shortage of Chinese electronic equipment persists, with delivery times for transformers reaching up to five years.

Consequently, it is estimated that 30% to 50% of planned constructions for next year may not be completed. Furthermore, according to satellite analysis from SynMax, nearly 40% of data center projects in the United States will face delays exceeding three months.

Source: Financial Times