May 18 (Reuters) - Brokerages remain constructive on gold's long-term outlook despite recent price weakness, as rising bond yields, inflation concerns and a stronger dollar have pressured prices in the near term.
While several banks have trimmed near-term forecasts due to softer investor demand and elevated rate expectations, most analysts still expect prices to recover through 2026.
On Sunday, JPMorgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 per ounce from $5,708, citing softer near-term demand for the metal as investor client interest has "dried to a trickle."
"This quietness shows through in stagnant activity and demand metrics. COMEX aggregate gold futures open interest and volume have remained depressed, net Managed Money futures open interest has stagnated at low levels and ETF flows have been light," analysts at the bank said in a note dated Sunday.
The downgrade comes after ANZ lowered on Friday its year-end target price for gold to $5,600 as inflation expectations, higher yields and a stronger dollar are likely to pressure prices.
Despite the downgrade, JPMorgan maintained a bullish outlook, expecting prices to climb toward $6,000 an ounce by the end of 2026 as demand strengthens in the second half of the year.
"We retain our bullish medium-term outlook and forecast that after the immense energy and inflation uncertainty clears, gold demand from investors and central banks will again re-intensify over 2H26."
Spot gold has fallen about 14% since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28, as rising oil prices fuel concerns around inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates by the Federal Reserve. [GOL/]
Following is a list of analysts' latest gold price forecasts (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Ag Annual Price Targets Forecast
ency Price as of
Forecas
t
2026
JPMorgan $5,243 Expects prices towards May 18,
$6,000 by year-end, as 2026
demand re-accelerates in
H2'26
ANZ* $5,600 Defers $6,000/oz gold May 15,
target to mid-2027 from 2026
early 2027
Macquarie $4,323 Expects prices to February
Group average $4,590 in first 5, 2026
quarter and $4,300 in
second quarter
Wells Fargo Expects $6,100-$6,300 by February
Investment end of 2026 4, 2026
Institute
UBS - Raises target to $6,200 January
for March, 29, 2026
June, and September 2026
Deutsche $5,500 $6,000 in 2026 January
Bank 26, 2026
Societe - $6,000 by the end of January
Generale 2026 26, 2026
Morgan $4,600 Bull case is $5,700 for January
Stanley second half of 2026 23, 2026
Goldman - $5,400 by December 2026 January
Sachs 22, 2026
Citi $5,000 Raises 0-3 month price January
Research target to $5,000 13, 2026
HSBC $4,587 $4,450 by year-end 2026 January 8,
2026
ANZ $4,445 $4,400 by year-end and October
$4,600 by June 2026 16, 2025
Bank of $4,438 2026 gold outlook raised October
America to $5,000 13, 2025
Standard $4,488 - October
Chartered 13, 2025
Commerzbank $4,900 $4,800 by mid-2026 January
13, 2026
*end-of-period forecasts
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
