Canadian, Norwegian and Mexican currencies bore the brunt of the oil debacle, shedding nearly 14% in 7 days. They fell against the major G10 currencies, led by the US dollar and the euro. Without revealing the analysis on oil, it is certain that a further decline will continue to weaken the aforementioned currencies, and vice versa.

Let's start with the Norwegian krone (not omelette). We wrote last week that "after validating a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern in mid-July, [the currency] remains under bearish pressure as long as 11.60 is resistance". The technical situation remains fundamentally unchanged, except that resistance is currently being tested. Its breach would pave the way for further weakness in the NOK towards 11.72/75 or even 12.00.

The situation for USDCAD is interesting. The rebound underway since last July is now bumping up against the upper boundary of a slightly descending consolidation channel, currently resisting around 1.3800. However, we'll be watching for a break of 1.3620 to position ourselves as sellers with a view to a return to the dynamic lows.

FX1

Source : Bloomberg

Back to the peso

Finally, let's finish with the USDMXN. At the beginning of July, we were inviting you to play the MXN on the upside, given the wide earnings gap with the dollar, with a target of 15.94/92 on the pair. Is the current recovery undermining this scenario? Here again, the currency is testing the upper limit of a downtrend channel around 18.30. We'll be watching for any bearish reversal patterns to position ourselves for a resumption of the underlying trend. On the other hand, a breakout above 18.30 (which we can put alongside 1.0710/80 on the DXY) will bolster the dollar's current strength, with the next major resistance at 19.55.

FX4

Source: Bloomberg