MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Chicago Business Barometer -- ISM-Chicago Business Survey -- Chicago PMI for December
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
- What Did Wall Street Get Right About Markets This Year? Not Much
- The Fed Alone Can't Make Gold Sparkle in 2024
- Banks Aren't Fighting Private Credit-They're Enabling It
Opening Call:
Stock futures were on the up Friday in one final push to end the year.
The focus on the final trading day of the year will be on whether the S&P 500 can set a new record closing high. The index was within 0.3% of its all-time high, set in January 2022.
All three indexes were on pace for a ninth consecutive weekly gain. For the S&P 500, that would mark the longest streak since January 2004.
Premarket Movers
Alphabet was up 0.2% after it agreed to settle privacy litigation, according to a report. A trial, set for February, over allegations Google had been tracking internet searches made by millions of users, has been placed on hold, Reuters reported, saying lawyers for Google and for consumers had reached a preliminary settlement.
Boeing said all of its 737 MAX aircraft operated by Chinese carriers have returned to service having been grounded in 2019 in the wake of two crashes, according to Reuters citing social media. The stock was down 0.3%.
Grand Canyon Education was down 5.9% premarket after the FTC said Wednesday it has started legal action, MarketWatch reported. The FTC alleged it and partner Grand Canyon University had deceived some prospective students about university program costs.
Forex:
The dollar recovered after falling to a five-month low against a basket of currencies this week, helped by a rebound in Treasury yields following a weak sale of 7-year Treasury bonds, and could rise further in early 2024, Swissquote said.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see the dollar recover against most majors in the first weeks of next year."
Either European Central Bank officials talking of possible interest-rate cuts and/or the Federal Reserve retreating from rate-cut talk could see EUR/USD ease, Swissquote added.
Energy:
Oil prices moved higher, but were still set for a weekly decline as demand concerns hit key benchmarks.
Despite the move higher, prices over the week were still set to fall 1.4% and 1.8% for Brent and WTI, respectively.
Brent and WTI were both also set to end the year roughly 10% lower, as slow economic growth slashes demand for oil.
Metals:
Base metals prices were higher while gold edged lower, with thin trading during the festive period not sending a signal one way or the other.
Metals have had a volatile year, with gold hitting a new record high, while shifts in demand have pushed and pulled base metals both sharply up and down.
Overall, copper is set to end the year just over 3% higher, while aluminum is roughly flat. Gold is up 14%, reflecting the stellar run the precious metal has had this year.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
JD.com Wins Antimonopoly Suit Against Alibaba
Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com said it won a lawsuit against rival Alibaba Group Holding, which was fined 1 billion yuan ($140.7 million) over monopolistic practices.
Zhejiang Tmall Network, Zhejiang Tmall Technology and Alibaba Group were found to have abused market dominance and engaged in monopolistic practices, causing severe damages to JD.com, it said in a statement Friday, citing a Beijing court ruling.
The New Star on the Political Scene: The Chip Industry
Semiconductors have played the starring role in state visits. Nvidia's chief executive was feted by heads of state like a visiting dignitary. Government delegations have shuttled around the globe hobnobbing with chip makers.
For an industry that suddenly finds itself as a geopolitical showpiece, the attention is a mixed bag.
How I, and Everyone Else, Got 2023 So Wrong
It is good practice to learn from your mistakes, but even better is to learn from other people's mistakes. My biggest error in 2023 was the same as everyone else's: being in the consensus that the fastest rate hikes in 40 years would cause a recession. They didn't, but there is still deep disagreement on why-and the direction of your portfolio depends on the answer.
As a reminder, at this time in 2022, predictions of recession were the norm-and on some measures stronger than they had ever been outside an actual recession. I wasn't persuaded by the economic models, because they paid no heed to the effects of the pandemic on supply and demand. But I thought it unlikely that the nascent stock rally would continue, because it was a bet on inflation's coming down without the economy being hit. How likely is that? Not very. Except that it happened.
Civil War Gaffe Undercuts Nikki Haley's 2024 Pitch
Republican Nikki Haley, who until this week had run a disciplined and largely error-free presidential campaign, has been forced into an uncomfortable and unexpected new chore: doing cleanup on a blunder related to the Civil War and slavery.
The former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador was forced into defensive mode after she omitted slavery from an answer she gave at a New Hampshire campaign event where she was asked what prompted the Civil War. Her long-winded response avoided giving the answer to a basic question most learned in grade school, teeing up a barrage of criticism from political foes.
Maine Becomes Second State to Bar Trump From 2024 Primary Ballot
Maine's top election official Thursday barred Donald Trump from appearing on the state's primary ballot, the second time a state knocked the Republican former president off its ballot and escalating a national legal effort to disqualify him from office.
In a 34-page written decision, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, said the Constitution bars a second Trump term because of his actions surrounding the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol following his loss in the 2020 presidential election.
Write to ina.kreutz@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings:
Nothing scheduled
Economic Calendar (ET):
Nothing scheduled
Expected Major Events for Friday
06:00/RUS: Dec Russian Manufacturing PMI
06:00/RUS: Dec Russian Services PMI
07:00/UK: Dec Nationwide House Price Index
07:45/FRA: Nov Housing starts
09:30/UK: Nov Capital issuance statistics
13:30/US: U.S. Weekly Export Sales
14:45/US: Dec Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
20:00/US: Nov Agricultural Prices
All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Friday
Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment Inc (CSSE) is expected to report $-0.77 for 3Q.
Clearday Inc (CLRD) is expected to report for 3Q.
Infinity Pharmaceuticals Inc (INFIQ) is expected to report $0.03 for 3Q.
National American University Holding Inc (NAUH) is expected to report for 2Q.
Outlook Therapeutics Inc (OTLK) is expected to report $-0.05 for 4Q.
SIFCO Industries (SIF) is expected to report for 4Q.
Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
ANALYST RATINGS ACTIONS
Karuna Therapeutics Cut to Neutral From Overweight by JP Morgan
WisdomTree Raised to Buy From Neutral by Northcoast Research
This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-29-23 0630ET
