Nexity weighed down by Development business, says Oddo BHF
Nexity reported Q1 revenue of 518 million euros (compared to Oddo BHF's estimate of 532 million euros), a 12% decline primarily attributed by the analyst to a 15% drop in Development activities (411 million euros).
Oddo BHF considers this trend consistent with the three-year structural decline in Residential Real Estate (revenue down 14% to 405 million euros) and very limited Commercial activity (revenue of 6 million euros; -58%).
The analyst notes that Services activities remained stable at 101 million euros, with 5% growth in operations (student residences and coworking) offset by a 14% decline in distribution (due to an unfavorable base effect related to the Pinel tax scheme).
Oddo BHF also highlights that reservations rose by 1% to 1,449 units (+2.5% in value), which the analyst views as a solid performance given their initial assumption of a 10% decline (reflecting caution over the current climate and a wait-and-see approach ahead of municipal elections).
For 2026, management reiterated its targets and confirmed expectations for an improvement in recurring operating profit (ROC). According to Oddo BHF, profitability will benefit from a higher proportion of projects with normative margins (approximately 7%) within the revenue mix.
By 2028, the group could return to a normative margin of around 7%, according to Oddo BHF.
Oddo BHF maintains its Outperform rating with an unchanged price target of 14 euros.
'Clearly, the current geopolitical context remains unfavorable, with medium-term uncertainty regarding inflation. However, from a commercial standpoint, the group should benefit from H2 onwards from an improvement in building permit approvals (post-municipal elections) and the growing momentum of the private landlord status (individual investors could represent approximately 25-30k units in the medium term, compared to less than 10k in 2025),' Oddo BHF added in its research note.
A leading integrated player in French real estate, Nexity covers the full range of real estate sales and services offered to individuals, businesses, institutional investors, and local communities, accompanying them throughout the real estate process. Net sales (excluding sold and international businesses) break down by activity as follows:
- sale of new homes (83%). The group is also involved in building land allotment and urban regeneration activities (Villes & Projets);
- real estate management services (15%): residential property management, student residence management, consulting and real estate transaction services (for individuals, businesses, and investors), network marketing of real estate leasing investment products, management, promotion, and development of real estate franchise networks, etc.;
primarily activities related to urban renewal (Cities & Projects);
- sale of commercial real estate properties (1.8%): sales of office buildings, skyscrapers, commercial complexes, logistics platforms, businesses and hotels;
- other (0.2%).
France accounts for 97.4% of net sales.
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