It is one of those strategist insights that MarketScreener loves. To measure the pressure financial markets are exerting on Donald Trump, Deutsche Bank's teams have developed a tool: the Presidential Pressure Index. This index aggregates 4-week changes in the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury yield, short-term inflation expectations, and the president's approval rating. The index reached a high in recent days, significantly exceeding the levels seen last April (during the tariff drama).
Source: Financial Times
Indeed, since the start of the conflict in Iran, the S&P 500 has dropped 5%, the US 10-year yield has climbed by approximately 50 basis points, and Donald Trump's popularity rating is at its lowest, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll. All this while oil prices have surged by over 60% in 2026. And this is clearly where the political stakes lie. Rising prices at the pump are indeed a millstone around the neck of the Trump administration.
The Financial Times has also noted an interesting pattern: President Trump tends to escalate over the weekends (when markets are closed), while signals of de-escalation are sent during the week. This strategy aims to minimize the impact on market prices.
Brent crude performance based on signals sent by Trump. Source: Financial Times
His administration is also taking every possible measure to ease the pressure on energy prices: easing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, suspending the Jones Act, tapping strategic reserves... These measures will likely prove insufficient if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain at a standstill (with the exception of a few vessels from countries friendly to Iran).
According to Bloomberg, the White House is even studying the consequences of oil at $200 per barrel. Why $200? Because it is a symbolic threshold. Adjusted for inflation, this level has only been breached once, prior to the 2008 financial crisis. So far, WTI has only briefly exceeded $100. However, analysts believe that prices for Middle Eastern benchmarks are more representative of the market's physical constraints.
While Western powers are doing everything to minimize the economic fallout of the conflict, the Iranians are doing everything to increase it, thereby deterring any future attack. Two weeks ago, the Revolutionary Guard warned that the world should prepare for oil at... $200.
