The analyst believes that an EBITDA turning point for fiscal year 2025 has been reached despite revenue falling short of forecasts.

Waga Energy had previously reported revenue of 59.6 million euros for FY2025 (+7% year-on-year), bolstered by renewable natural gas production revenues (+23% year-on-year).

"While revenue growth remained moderate due to a slower-than-expected ramp-up of U.S. assets, EBITDA turned positive at 1.2 million euros (compared to -2.6 million euros in 2024 and -2 million euros in 2025), marking a clear operational inflection point ahead of initial targets," the research firm noted.

According to Stifel, recurring revenue visibility continues to strengthen through portfolio expansion, with 36 units in operation (1.9 TWh/year) and 19 units under construction (1.8 TWh/year), bringing the total portfolio to 55 projects and an installed capacity of 3.8 TWh/year.

"Once commissioned, this footprint represents 221 million euros in contracted annual recurring revenue (+21% year-on-year), highlighting the scalability and cash flow visibility of Waga Energy's investment model," Stifel specified.

The analyst considers the commercial project pipeline to remain robust and increasingly mature. In a more cautious market environment, Waga Energy's pipeline expanded to 238 projects, representing 18.8 TWh/year (+12% year-on-year and +8% compared to February 2026).

The note also highlights that liquidity stood at 250 million euros at the end of 2025 (60 million euros in cash, 190 million euros in undrawn debt), supported by 193 million euros in new debt contracted during the year.

According to Stifel, with a 95% conversion of project EBITDA into operating cash flows (23 million euros of project EBITDA for FY2025), Waga Energy maintains significant financial flexibility to fund ongoing construction projects and pursue selective acceleration, particularly in North America and Europe.

"Medium-term targets have been pushed back. Management confirmed that the target of 200 million euros in revenue and 4 TWh of installed capacity, initially slated for 2026, is now expected with a delay of approximately 18 months (2027-2028). However, the ambition to secure more than 400 million euros in signed annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026 remains intact, subject to the completion of U.S. projects," the analyst added in the study's conclusion.