By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for July delivery rose 2.8% to $6.36 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday ahead of an expected reduction in U.S. wheat supplies.

-Corn for July delivery rose 0.7% to $4.74 1/2 a bushel.

-Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.3% to $12.11 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Setting the Stage: The WASDE report may spark a rush of selling in CBOT grain futures depending on what happens in the geopolitical spectrum this week. "The opportunity for a surprise for the trade is certainly there this week, via tomorrow's reports, as well as Thursday's anticipated trade deal announcement," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. The report is expected to show a smaller U.S. wheat crop and a larger soybean crop, and a surprise of larger-than-expected supplies that could start a selling wave. What's more, the outcome of the U.S.-China summit this week and negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may push grains firmly into selling territory. "This week should tell us a great deal," Suderman said.

Meet and Greet: The summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may result in increased U.S. soybean export sales, which would support the larger crop expected out of the U.S. this marketing year. "Traders are looking optimistically at the China visit being a positive sign especially for beans," said Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities.

Holding Firm: The agricultural markets are digesting a story from The WSJ reporting that the Trump Administration is planning to temporarily lower tariffs on beef imports into the U.S., in an effort to push down steep consumer prices for beef. The news briefly weighed on live cattle futures, dropping them by more than 1% Monday afternoon. Grains didn't appear to react to the news, even as higher beef imports could impact demand for animal feedstock. "It feels like grains are more focused on WASDE tomorrow," said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing.


INSIGHT


Stacks on Stacks: The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report published Friday showed even larger net-long positions for corn, soybeans, and wheat -- giving traders a huge position they're sitting on ahead of several market-making events. For the week ended May 5, fund traders added nearly 62,000 long contracts in corn, along with nearly 42,000 long contracts in soybeans. How the U.S.-China summit plays out and what deals might come out of it may move grains in either direction, particularly soybeans.

Flash Sales: The USDA confirmed new flash sales of U.S. corn this morning, with 380,000 metric tons of corn sold to Mexico. The agency says that 220,000 tons were sold for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year, with 160,000 tons sold for 2026/27. An additional 128,000 tons were sold for delivery to South Korea in 2025/26.


AHEAD


-The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Tuesday.

-JBS NV will release its first quarter earnings report after the stock market closes on Tuesday.

-The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-11-26 1516ET