STORY: :: Joseph Ax, National Affairs Correspondent
"Two weeks ago, Democrats were feeling pretty confident that they had successfully neutered Donald Trump and the Republicans' redistricting push. And then in late April, Florida pushed through a Republican map that would target four Democrats there. The very same day, the Supreme Court hollowed out a provision of the Voting Rights Act, which essentially opened the door for a number of Republican states to dismantle majority Black districts that have historically been represented by Democrats. And then a little more than a week after that, the Virginia Supreme Court threw out a Democratic map there that had been approved by voters that was targeting for Republicans. And so the kind of the upshot of all that is, Republicans went from basically being in a stalemate to potentially gaining as many as a dozen additional seats through redistricting alone during this cycle. And while that's obviously pretty bad for Democrats, most analysts believe that Democrats remain favored to win the House in November."
:: April 22, 2026
:: Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, (D) House Minority Leader
"We will not let Donald Trump rig the midterm elections."
"And the reason for that mostly is the political environment for Republicans is just incredibly toxic right now. Donald Trump is far underwater in terms of his approval ratings. Just a little more than a third of Americans approve of his job performance versus almost two-thirds disapproving.The war in Iran is deeply unpopular. It's driving up inflation. It's driving up energy prices. Voters are incredibly frustrated with the cost of living. And so all of that is adding up to a pretty, pretty tough political set of circumstances for Republicans ahead of November."
"Now obviously it's only May. There's six months left until the November elections and a lot can happen. We certainly know in the Trump era that things in politics can shift very quickly. So, you know, we don't know what's going to happen with the war in Iran. We don't know if gas prices will drop down. We don't know what other kind of political crises might arise between now and then. And so it remains to be seen what will happen. But at least right now, Democrats can feel relatively good about their position, even though Republicans have ended up winning the redistricting war."
Republicans won a House majority in the 2024 U.S. elections by only three seats in the 435-seat chamber. But they now have reshaped 14 districts across six states in their favor, and Republican state legislators are pursuing three or four more in Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina. Democrats have managed to gain five seats in California, as well as a new Democratic district in Utah, thanks to a court ruling.
Each House seat represents an individual contest. But with the various redrawn state electoral maps, Democrats likely must win the national popular vote in House races by 3 to 4 percentage points to capture a majority in the chamber, depending on how redistricting plays out in those three Southern states, according to Kyle Kondik, an analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Most published opinion polls show Democrats exceeding that margin, at least as of right now.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday showed 41% of registered voters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their House district if the election were held today, compared to 35% who said they would vote Republican.
