(Updates with Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Goldman Sachs
UK GDP forecast and December U.S. CPI data)
Jan 12 (Reuters) - Global growth will likely slow this
year but a dovish tilt in the Federal Reserve's stance has
raised hopes for the U.S. economy and brightened the outlook for
riskier assets, according to big banks.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England sticking
to their higher-for-longer rates stance, however, has blurred
expectations for Europe.
Following are forecasts from some major banks and peers on
economic growth, inflation, Fed policy and how they expect
certain assets classes to perform.
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.6% 2.1% 4.8% 0.9% 0.5% 6.3%
Sachs
Morgan 2.8% 1.9% 4.2% 0.5% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS Global 2.6% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 6.2%
Wealth
Management
Barclays 2.6% 1.2% 4.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.2%
2.2% 1.6% 4.9% 0.4% 0.2% 5.7%
J.P.Morgan
BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% 5.7%
Global
Research
2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.2% 0.3% 6.0%
Deutsche
Bank
Citigroup 1.9% 1.1% 4.6% -0.2% -0.3% 5.7%
----
U.S. inflation and Fed forecasts:
Latest data showed that in the 12 months through December,
U.S. consumer prices edged 3.4% higher after increasing 3.1% in
November, tempering expectations of an interest rate cut in
March. The pace of price rises, however, slowed from a peak of
9.1% in June 2022. The Fed targets an inflation rate of 2%.
The central bank's main rate currently stands in the
5.25%-5.50% range after 525 basis points of hike since March
2022. Rate cuts are seen coming as early as March.
U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds
Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec
'24)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.50% 4%-4.25%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%
UBS Global 4.50%-4.75%
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo 2.80% 2.60% 4.50%-4.75%
Investment
Institute
Barclays 2.70% 4.5%-4.75%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50% 4%-4.25%
BofA Global 2.80% 4.25%-4.50%
Research
Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63%
Citigroup 2.60% 4.50%
-----
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C
target yield NY
target
Goldman Sachs 5,100 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15
Morgan Stanley 4,500 1 140 7.5
UBS Global 4,700 3.50% 1.12 140 7.00
Wealth
Management
Wells Fargo 4,800-5, 4.25%-4.75 1.08-1.1 136-140
Investment 000 % 2
Institute
Barclays 4.25% 1.09 145 7.20
J.P.Morgan 4,200 3.75% 1.13 146 7.15
BofA Global 4.25% 1.15 142 6.90
Research 5,000
Deutsche Bank 4.10% 1.10 135
5,100
Societe 3.75% 1.15
Generale 4,750
Citigroup 4.30% 1.02 135 7.25
5,100
HSBC
5,000
As of 1130 GMT on Jan. 12, 2024:
S&P 500: 4780.24
US 10-year yield: 3.9842%
EUR/USD: 1.0953
USD/CNY: 7.1675
USD/JPY: 145.19
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by
Sriraj Kalluvila)