By Kirk Maltais


--Wheat for December delivery fell 3.2% to $8.44 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday as the U.S. dollar hovered at its highest levels in over 20 years.

--Corn for December delivery fell 0.8% to $6.76 1/2 a bushel.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 0.3% to $14.51 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Flexing Muscle: The ICE U.S. Dollar Index lingered at the highest levels seen in over 20 years, pressuring grains, specifically wheat. "Ukraine, Russia, even EU and now Canada providing plenty of competition and soon to be Australia," Joel Karlin of Western Milling told the WSJ. Concerns about more rate hikes being needed to bring inflation back down to target levels is driving the dollar up, making U.S. exports less attractive to global customers.

Sifting Through the Pile: Today's dump of export sales data by the USDA drove a lot of movement in grain futures. Soybeans got support from a relatively strong showing while wheat futures fell amid lower-than-expected results. "Bottom line is that USDA export sales over the past few weeks have been good for soybeans, OK for corn and slightly below average for wheat," said Terry Reilly of Futures International in a note. For its most recent report covering the week ended September 8, corn sales totaled 583,100 metric tons, wheat sales totaled 217,300 tons and soybean sales totaled 873,000 tons. All three of these figures fall within expectations of traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

Crisis Averted: A possible shutdown of U.S. railways was averted this morning after a tentative agreement was reached between railways and unionized workers overnight. The Association of American Railroads said that the deal is retroactive to 2019 and runs through 2024, and includes an immediate payout on average of $11,000 upon ratification along with 24% in wage increases over the next five years. While the deal still needs to be ratified, the attention of grain traders has shifted elsewhere. "At the very least, the agreement delays any possible strike for a few weeks," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. "Corn and soybean traders can now focus on early harvest results over the next several weeks."


INSIGHTS


Draw Down: Stocks of soybean oil reported by the National Oilseed Processors Association are at their lowest level since June 2021. NOPA reports US soybean stocks at 1.57 billion pounds through August. Meanwhile, the rate of soybeans crushed for the month hit 165.5 million bushels, which is down from the previous month but up from August 2021. The rate is slightly lower than expected by traders, according to a note from Futures International.

Flirting With Catastrophe: The tentative deal between railways and labor unions representing rail workers averted what would have been a disaster for the U.S. ethanol industry, Renewable Fuels Association head Geoff Cooper said in a statement. "A strike-related stoppage of rail service would have been catastrophic for the ethanol industry, as more than 70% of the renewable fuel we produce is shipped by rail," says Cooper. "The industry also relies heavily on rail for inbound corn shipments and outbound shipments of animal feed co-products."


AHEAD:


--The CFTC will release its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

-The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

09-15-22 1540ET