The Paris stock market is running out of steam (gain reduced from +1% to 0.8%) below 7450 points, unlike the other European markets, with the DAX at +1.6% and the Euro-Stoxx50 at +2.1%, AEX (Amsterdam) at +2.8%.
These indices were literally snatched up by a sudden rush on 2 European 'tech' champions, Germany's SAP (+7.5%) and the Netherlands' ASML.

Once again, this was a rather unpredictable move, as the 'SOXX' has been soaring on Wall Street for the past 3 weeks (already +10% and +25% on Nvidia).

ASML, the Euro Stoxx50's real driving force, jumped +10% on the announcement of a tripling of orders (surpassing the wildest expectations) and enabled the pan-European index to retrace in a few hours its 2023 zenith of 4,550 of December 15: at 4,556, the index is heading straight for an all-time closing record.

Wall Street set one record after another: 4 for the S&P500 (+0.65%) to 4,895 and 5 for the Nasdaq-100 (+1.1% to 17,600).

As has been the case every day since January 1, the new all-time highs were driven by the surge in semiconductor prices (Nvidia +3.5%, AMD +5.6%) and by Netflix's strong results (+12.5%, with no fewer than 13.2 million subscribers recruited in the fourth quarter, its biggest score since the pandemic).

Optimism is sustained by the strength of the US private sector: according to S&P Global, business growth accelerated in January, with the composite PMI coming in at 52.3 in flash estimates, a seven-month high, after 50.9 for the previous month.

"Expansion was supported by service providers, while manufacturers continued to observe a fall in production against a backdrop of intensifying supply problems", says S&P Global.

Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities, warns: "While it's true that sellers are worried about valuations in the technology sector, we believe that estimates for 2024 and 2025 will be revised upwards with the wave of investment in AI about to hit the market".

That's actually 3 full months where 100% of Wall Street's performance is based on a dozen stocks, 3 of which have accounted for 80% of performance since January 1: an ultra-concentration unseen in 140 years.

The performances of Tesla and IBM are expected after the market closes tonight, before those of Intel tomorrow evening.

The earnings season is currently in full swing, and according to the latest data from FactSet, 62% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded expectations, compared with a ten-year average of 74%.

There were also figures from Europe this morning: the HCOB composite PMI flash index of overall activity in the Eurozone came in at 47.9 in January, highlighting an eighth consecutive month of decline in the region's private business activity.

The index recovered from December 2023 (47.6) and signals the smallest decline in overall activity since July.

In France, the HCOB composite PMI index fell from 44.8 in December to 44.2 in January ('flash' estimate), posting a four-month low and underlining the sharp contraction in overall activity in the country.

On the bond front, the yield on 10-year Treasuries hovered around 4.135% (-1 basis point), while the 10-year German Bund, the benchmark for the region, settled at around 2.329% (-2 basis points) on the eve of the ECB's eagerly-awaited announcements.

On the oil markets, Brent crude stabilized at $79.80 a barrel.
The Euro recovers against the Dollar: +0.33% to 1.0890, the ot
r wave erodes by a further -0.3% to $2.015/Oz.

In French company news, Pierre & Vacances last night published sales of 368.6 million euros under IFRS standards for the 1st quarter of the 2023/2024 financial year, compared with 351.8 million euros a year earlier.

Interparfums reports sales growth of 13% to 798.5 million euros (+14.6% at constant exchange rates) for 2023, achieving 'another record year, in a dynamic market, particularly in the first part of the year'.

For the third quarter of 2023-24, Alstom reports sales up 2.6% to 4.33 billion euros (+4.6% organic), and orders up 5.8% to 5.45 billion (+6.4% organic).


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