By assessing our investments and resources on the basis of our financial 
performance, and on the carbon intensity of our revenues, we will decide 
what changes to make to our business portfolio. 
 
   The carbon emissions constraints we place on our businesses will tighten 
over time, in line with our carbon intensity targets and as demand for 
low-carbon products increases. 
 
   We are setting carbon budgets for all our businesses and these will help 
to drive investment decisions which will in turn drive down our 
emissions. 
 
   TRACK RECORD OF SECTOR-LEADING CFFO 
 
   $ billion 
 
   Peer range comprises ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and Total, CFFO for 
 
   SHELL CORRECTED FOR INTEREST RECEIVED (IN CFFI) AND INTEREST PAID 
(CFFF). 
 
   FUTURE-PROOFING OUR CASH FLOWS 
 
   % 
 
 
 
 
             Historical 5-year 
                  average       Net debt >$65billion  Beyond 2025 
-----------  -----------------  --------------------  ----------- 
Growth                     11%                  20%         25% 
-----------  -----------------  --------------------  ----------- 
Transition                 48%                  45%         45% 
-----------  -----------------  --------------------  ----------- 
Upstream                   41%                  35%         30% 
-----------  -----------------  --------------------  ----------- 
 
 
   CASH CAPEX EVOLUTION 
 
 
 
 
             2020  Beyond 2025 
-----------  ----  ----------- 
Growth        16%       35-40% 
-----------  ----  ----------- 
Transition    43%       30-40% 
-----------  ----  ----------- 
Upstream      42%       25-30% 
-----------  ----  ----------- 
 
   CAPITAL ALLOCATION THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION 
 
   We are shifting capital from our Upstream business to our Transition and 
Growth businesses as the energy transition accelerates and we sell more 
low-carbon energy products. 
 
   We aim to find the right balance between managing our Upstream assets -- 
which will produce the returns needed to help us fund the transition -- 
and investing in our Transition and Growth businesses. These businesses 
are essential to identify, build and scale up profitable projects that 
offer low-carbon energy solutions for our customers. Our investments in 
our three business pillars are characterised by several factors 
including: 
 
   GROWTH: 
 
 
   -- Compared with our conventional Upstream assets, investments in low- and 
      zero-carbon solutions can require lower amounts of capital. 
 
   -- The levels of capital investment needed to maintain a renewable energy 
      business are also likely to be lower than in capital-intensive complex 
      engineering projects common in the oil and gas industry, with their 
      ongoing need for asset renewal and resource replenishment. 
 
   -- We can grow our sales of low-carbon energy without necessarily investing 
      in producing it ourselves by buying it from third parties and selling it 
      to our customers. This model is part of our business today, we sell more 
      than three times the energy we produce ourselves. 
 
   -- We can enter into different types of financial arrangements that enable 
      renewable generation capacity to be built, without bearing the full 
      capital cost of the project. For example, developing renewable production 
      as part of joint ventures allows us to reduce the capital investment 
      needed, while giving us access to valuable expertise from other partners. 
      It also gives us the opportunity to secure a substantial portion of the 
      energy produced, allowing us to grow customer sales (See box 
      Offshore wind). 
 
   -- Our investments in our Marketing business will help decarbonise the 
      energy system by increasing the provision of charging for electric 
      vehicles and increasing the use of biofuels and low- and zero-carbon 
      lubricants. 
 
 
   TRANSITION: 
 
 
   -- Our investments in natural gas can help to decarbonise energy use when it 
      replaces energy with a higher carbon intensity such as coal and fuel for 
      shipping. 
 
   -- Restructuring our refinery business into energy parks will transform our 
      business away from our traditional oil-based energy products. 
 
 
   UPSTREAM: 
 
 
   -- Most of our investments in our Upstream business are in maintaining 
      assets and sustaining the value of the portfolio. 
 
   -- Our existing Upstream assets are critical to delivering near-term cash 
      flow and to enabling moderate growth. 
 
   -- Our investments to improve the efficiency of our oil and gas facilities 
      can help reduce our operational emissions. 
 
   INVESTING IN OIL AND GAS 
 
   A natural decline in production happens in oil and gas reservoirs at a 
rate of around 5% a year across the oil and gas industry. It takes 
constant reinvestment to sustain production and extract resources. 
 
   Our planned capital investment of $8 billion in our Upstream business in 
the near term is well below the investment level required to offset the 
natural decline in production of our oil and gas reservoirs, and will 
not sustain current levels of production. 
 
   As a result of this planned level of capital investment, we expect a 
gradual decline of about 1-2% a year in total oil production through to 
2030, including divestments. 
 
   Powering lives by providing energy to homes. 
 
   OFFSHORE WIND 
 
   Shell is part of the Blauwwind Consortium that was awarded the right to 
develop, construct and operate the Borssele III and IV wind farm off the 
Dutch coast. Shell entered with a 40% share in 2016 and Shell Energy 
Europe Limited secured a contract to sell 50% of the power produced. We 
sold half of our joint venture partnership in 2018 when we brought on 
board an additional partner. The wind farm is now fully operational and 
has a total installed capacity of 731.5 MW, equivalent to powering 
825,000 Dutch households. We still sell 50% of the power produced. 
 
   Shell is part of a consortium that has developed a wind farm off the 
Dutch coast. We sell 50% of the power produced. 
 
   CLIMATE POLICY ENGAGEMENT 
 
   Robust and sustainable government policies will be critical to help the 
world achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement and net-zero emissions by 
2050. These must include policies that accelerate the move to low-carbon 
energy in industries that are hard to decarbonise, sector by sector. 
 
   Shell's Powering Progress strategy includes working with governments to 
support the policies and regulatory frameworks to accelerate the 
transition to net zero. 
 
   We are seeing a growing number of countries aiming for net-zero 
emissions and enhancing their nationally determined contributions 
(NDCs). The USA has recently rejoined the Paris Agreement, for example, 
China has set out its plans to reach net zero by 2060, and the European 
Union (EU) has committed to climate neutrality, or net-zero emissions, 
in 2050. 
 
   ENGAGING WITH GOVERNMENTS 
 
   Our expertise in providing energy can help to shape effective policy, 
legislation and regulation, and we engage with governments, regulators 
and policymakers directly and indirectly, including through industry 
associations. We are also working with other companies, governments and 
investors through coalitions to identify the policies needed in sectors 
such as aviation, shipping and road freight to help change demand and 
enable faster decarbonisation. 
 
   We are members of the Mission Possible Partnership sectoral coalitions 
for aviation, shipping, road freight and steel. Each of these coalitions 
works to help accelerate decarbonisation pathways, including through 
policy engagement. For example, we are a member of the Clean Skies for 
Tomorrow initiative, which has developed a joint policy proposal for a 
sustainable aviation fuel mandate in the EU which would require airlines 
to use an increasing ratio of sustainable aviation fuel. 
 
   Shell is also a member of the Jet Zero Council (JZC) in the UK, a 
partnership between industry and government. JZC aims to deliver 
zero-emission transatlantic flight within a generation, and to drive new 
technologies and innovative ways to cut aviation emissions. Shell is 
also a member of the European Round Table for Industry (ERT) which has 
called on the EU institutions to introduce sectoral roadmaps to net-zero 
emissions [M]. 
 
   GREATER TRANSPARENCY 
 
   We aim to be at the forefront of the drive for greater transparency 
around political engagement. We set out our approach, including our 
principles for responsible lobbying, in our statement on corporate 
political engagement which is published on our website [N]. 
 
   Our principles for participation in industry associations govern how we 
manage our relationships with industry associations on climate-related 
policy. They build on the Shell General Business Principles and the 
Shell Code of Conduct, and have been incorporated in the Shell Control 
Framework, which sets the requirements for how all Shell entities 
operate. The principles aim to ensure our memberships of industry 
associations do not undermine our support for the Paris Agreement and 
that they support the development of government policies that could help 
the world achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. 
 
   In 2019, we published our first Industry Associations Climate Review, 
and were one of the first companies to report this information [O]. The 
review assessed our climate-related policy alignment with 19 industry 
associations against our 2019 climate-related policy positions. The 
following year we published an update to our review. 
 
   In 2020, we updated Shell's climate-related policy positions and 
published them on our website [P]. These positions include support for 
the goal of the Paris Agreement and for the development of policies to 
help the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. They also include 
support for carbon pricing, carbon capture utilisation and storage and 
nature-based offsets. 
 
   In the newly published 2021 Industry Associations Climate Review, we

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