between governments, industry and investors, among others, to help 
unlock financing capacity, accelerate technology development and 
encourage public support. We recognise the scale of the challenge in 
developing CCS globally as quickly and as widely as needed. 
 
   Today, Shell is involved in seven of the 51 large-scale CCS projects 
globally, listed in 2019 by the Global CCS Institute. These seven 
projects store around 5 mtpa of CO(2) , or around 12.5% of global CCS 
capacity. By the end of 2020, for example, our Quest CCS project in 
Canada (Shell interest 10%) had captured and safely stored more than 5.5 
million tonnes of CO(2) since it began operating in 2015. 
 
   In Norway, Shell, our project partners and the Norwegian government have 
taken the final investment decision on the Northern Lights CCS project. 
This transformative project aims to become the first carbon storage 
facility with capacity to transport and store CO(2) from industrial 
facilities in Norway and potentially from across Europe. 
 
   In 2020, Shell invested around $70 million in CCS. This included 
progressing opportunities and operating costs for CCS assets in which 
Shell has an interest. We seek to have access to 25 mtpa of CCS capacity 
by 2035 -- equal to 25 CCS facilities the size of our Quest project, or 
around 20% of the capacity of all CCS projects being studied around the 
world today. 
 
   STRUCTURING OUR BUSINESS TO MEET DEMAND 
 
   Our business has three pillars: Growth, Transition and Upstream. Within 
each pillar, we expect the underlying businesses to evolve and transform 
as demand for our products changes, driven through our sector-based 
businesses. 
 
   Our Upstream pillar delivers the cash and returns needed to fund our 
shareholder distributions and the transformation of our company, and 
provides vital supplies of oil and natural gas which the world needs 
today. 
 
   Our Transition pillar comprises Integrated Gas, and our Chemicals and 
Products business, and it makes the products needed to enable the energy 
transition. It produces sustainable cash flow and gives us the asset 
infrastructure to support our investments in our Growth business. 
 
   Our Growth pillar includes our service stations, fuels for business 
customers, power, hydrogen, biofuels, charging for electric vehicles, 
nature-based solutions, and carbon capture and storage. It focuses on 
working with our customers to accelerate the transition to net zero and 
is the foundation for the future businesses in Shell. 
 
   In our Upstream pillar: 
 
   We will focus our portfolio on nine core positions that generate more 
than 80% of Upstream's cash flow from operations. These core positions 
will attract around 80% of Upstream's capital spending. They are 
positions where we have superior capabilities, the potential for growth 
and access to strong integration with our Integrated Gas and Trading 
activities. 
 
   The rest of our positions will be run on a leaner operating model. They 
will be tasked with either maximising cash generation or becoming core 
positions. In some cases, such as onshore Egypt and the Philippines, we 
will simply divest. We will reduce annual spending on exploration from 
around $2.2 billion in 2015 to around $1.5 billion between 2021 and 
2025. We have attractive exploration opportunities in the first half of 
this decade. But after 2025, we do not anticipate entries into new 
frontier exploration positions. 
 
   In our Transition pillar: 
 
   We intend to extend our leadership in LNG volumes and markets, with 
selective investments in competitive LNG assets to deliver more than 7 
million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new capacity on-stream by the middle 
of the decade. We will continue to support customers with their own 
net-zero ambitions, with offers such as carbon-neutral LNG, which uses 
nature-based carbon credits to offset full life-cycle emissions, 
including methane. Our petrochemical business will continue to grow and 
provide products that enhance the efficiency of energy use. 
 
   We intend to reduce the number of refineries from 13 sites today to six 
high-value chemicals and energy parks, and reduce production of 
traditional fuels by 55% by 2030, from around 100 mtpa to 45 mtpa. We 
intend to grow volumes from our chemicals portfolio and increase cash 
generation from Chemicals by $1-2 billion a year by 2030. We will 
produce chemicals from recycled waste, and by 2025 aim to process 1 
million tonnes a year of plastic waste. 
 
   LNG DEMAND TO GROW AS GAS PROVIDES MORE AND CLEANER ENERGY 
 
   REDUCE CO(2) AND IMPROVE AIR QUALITY 
 
 
   -- Natural gas emits between 45% and 55% less GHG than coal when used to 
      generate electricity and less than one-tenth of the air pollutants 
 
   -- More than 750 million tonnes of CO2 savings as a result of coal-to-gas 
      switching over the last decade 
 
   -- In 2020, for the first time on record, the number of coal-fired power 
      stations decreased 
 
   LNG NEEDED TO CONNECT NATURAL GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND GROWTH 
 
   Estimated LNG trade volume in 2040, million tonnes 
 
   In our Growth pillar: 
 
   Our Marketing business is our single largest customer-facing business. 
In 2020, Marketing delivered more than $4.5 billion in net earnings and, 
by 2025, we expect it to generate more than $6 billion. We will achieve 
this by improving the market-leading position of our lubricants business, 
and by increasing the number of retail sites and daily customers we 
serve from 46,000 and 30 million respectively today, to 55,000 and 40 
million by 2025. We will also achieve this by growing non-fuel sales at 
our retail sites and sales of electricity. 
 
   This growing number of customers, made up of large and small businesses 
as well as individual consumers, will be looking to decarbonise their 
energy consumption over the coming decades. We intend to provide them 
with the options to do this, from low-carbon solutions such as clean 
electricity, hydrogen and biofuels, to carbon sinks or offsets for any 
remaining carbon emissions. 
 
   Shell is increasing the number of electric vehicle charging points 
globally -- for homeowners and businesses and for use on our forecourts 
-- from more than 60,000 today to more than 500,000 by 2025 and to 2.5 
million by 2030. By comparison, that is around 7% of the total number of 
public and private charge points expected in Europe alone by 2030, 
according to research by Bloomberg. 
 
   As the need for biofuels grows, in line with customer demand and 
policies to reduce transport-related emissions, we expect to extend our 
leading biofuels production and distribution business, which in 2020 
sold 9.5 billion litres of biofuels. Our joint venture Raízen, 
which produces low-carbon biofuels from sugar cane in Brazil, recently 
announced the acquisition of Biosev. This is set to increase 
Raízen's bioethanol production capacity by 50%, to 3.75 billion 
litres a year, around 3% of global production. 
 
   We aim for our power business to sell around 560 terawatt hours of 
electricity a year by 2030, which is twice as much electricity as we 
sell today, and for the electricity we sell to have lower carbon 
intensity than the grid average within the markets where we operate. We 
are growing our power businesses with a focus on Europe, the USA, 
Australia and Asia. 
 
   CLEAN HYDROGEN GLOBAL DEMAND PROJECTIONS 
 
   Million tonnes per annum 
 
 
 
 
            2020   2030  2040  2050 
----------  -----  ----  ----  ---- 
Low case    >1       10    50   186 
----------  -----  ----  ----  ---- 
High case   >1       40   190   696 
----------  -----  ----  ----  ---- 
 
 
   Source: Bloomberg NEF Hydrogen Economy Outlook (2020), IEA low-carbon 
hydrogen production data, IEA Sustainable development scenario 2030, 
Shell analysis 
 
   Building clean hydrogen 
 
   We intend to build on Shell's leading position in hydrogen by developing 
integrated hydrogen hubs initially to serve industry and heavy-duty 
transport. We will begin by producing and supplying hydrogen for our own 
manufacturing sites, especially refineries. For example, we are 
developing a hydrogen electrolyser at our refinery in Rheinland, Germany, 
which produces hydrogen from renewable sources. We will also continue to 
extend our network of hydrogen retail stations, with an increasing focus 
on heavy-duty transport. 
 
   The clean hydrogen market is still in the early stages and the volumes 
are still modest [L]. But we see strong potential for growth especially 
in hard-to-abate sectors of the economy. We aim to achieve a 
double-digit market share of global clean hydrogen sales by 2030. 
 
   [L] Shell's definition of clean hydrogen includes hydrogen made from 
renewable sources (usually referred to as green hydrogen) and hydrogen 
made from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (usually referred 
to as blue hydrogen). 
 
   RENEWABLES AND ENERGY SOLUTIONS: INTEGRATED POWER STRATEGY FOCUSED ON 
REGIONAL LEADERSHIP 
 
   EUROPE 
 
 
   -- In top three electric vehicle charging operators by volume 
 
 
   Energy solutions 
 
 
   -- Around 1 million customers of integrated home energy solutions (Shell 
      Energy Retail) 
 
   -- More than 80,000 operated electric vehicle charge points (primarily 
      through NewMotion) 
 
   -- Intelligent home battery energy storage (60,000 sonnen battery customers 
      worldwide) 
 
   -- Sustained growth of the commercial and industrial portfolio with more 
      than 10,000 customers across key markets 
 
 
   Trading and optimisation 
 
 
   -- Growing power trading business across Europe 
 
   -- A leading player in the UK distributed energy market (Limejump) 
 
 
   Renewable assets 
 
 
   -- The Netherlands: 160 MW of renewable generation capacity in operation and 
      1.6 GW in development across solar and wind* 
 
   -- Germany: 10 MW hydrogen electrolyser (RefHyne) expected to 
      start production in the summer of 2021 
 
   -- Ireland: 300 MW floating wind farm (Emerald) in early-stage development, 
      Shell share 51%

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04-15-21 0215ET