Projected Income Statement: Travis Perkins plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Travis Perkins plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 605 819 922 845 621 580 535 552
Change - 35.37% 12.58% -8.35% -26.51% -6.62% -7.76% 3.18%
Announcement Date 3/1/22 2/28/23 3/5/24 4/1/25 3/17/26 - - -
1GBP in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Travis Perkins plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 162.5 132.1 64.9 64 60 80 83 85
Change - -18.71% -50.87% -1.39% -6.25% 33.33% 3.75% 2.41%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 166.8 124 152.7 109 206 67.7 74.07 90.8
Change - -25.66% 23.15% -28.62% 88.99% -67.13% 9.4% 22.6%
Announcement Date 3/1/22 2/28/23 3/5/24 4/1/25 3/17/26 - - -
1GBP in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Travis Perkins plc

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.16% 9.1% 7.33% 7.2% 6.36% 6.46% 6.92% 7.18%
EBIT Margin (%) 7.69% 5.91% 3.71% 3.29% 2.92% 2.76% 3.31% 3.66%
EBT Margin (%) 6.66% 4.91% 1.44% -0.83% -2.95% 1.7% 2.34% 2.86%
Net margin (%) 6.08% 3.85% 0.78% -1.68% -3.86% 1.14% 1.57% 1.92%
FCF margin (%) 3.64% 2.48% 3.14% 2.37% 4.51% 1.48% 1.55% 1.83%
FCF / Net Income (%) 59.81% 64.52% 400.79% -140.83% -116.85% 128.95% 98.96% 95.72%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.32% 4.5% 0.93% 1.92% 1.66% 1.7% 1.89% 2.28%
ROE 11.27% 8.86% 1.84% 3.85% 3.48% 3.4% 4.45% 5.38%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.18x 1.8x 2.59x 2.55x 2.14x 1.96x 1.62x 1.55x
Debt / Free cash flow 3.62x 6.6x 6.04x 7.75x 3.02x 8.56x 7.23x 6.08x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 3.54% 2.64% 1.33% 1.39% 1.31% 1.74% 1.74% 1.72%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 31.76% 29.07% 18.21% 19.28% 20.65% 26.99% 25.15% 23.91%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 97.42% 106.53% 42.5% 58.72% 29.13% 118.16% 112.06% 93.61%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.403 1.189 1.016 1.035 1.886 0.7901 0.74 0.8463
Change - -15.26% -14.53% 1.9% 82.1% -58.1% -6.34% 14.36%
Dividend per Share 1 0.38 0.39 0.18 0.145 0.12 0.1198 0.154 0.1858
Change - 2.63% -53.85% -19.44% -17.24% -0.18% 28.59% 20.59%
Book Value Per Share 1 10.1 9.933 9.691 9.351 8.247 8.433 8.503 9.003
Change - -1.68% -2.44% -3.51% -11.81% 2.26% 0.82% 5.88%
EPS 1 1.188 0.892 0.178 -0.366 -0.833 0.2472 0.3499 0.4427
Change - -24.92% -80.04% -305.62% -127.6% 129.68% 41.56% 26.51%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 218,933 210,029 210,003 210,861 211,317 211,840 211,840 211,840
Announcement Date 3/1/22 2/28/23 3/5/24 4/1/25 3/17/26 - - -
1GBP
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 22x 15.5x
PBR 0.64x 0.64x
EV / Sales 0.38x 0.35x
Yield 2.2% 2.83%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
16
Last Close Price
5.435GBP
Average target price
6.519GBP
Spread / Average Target
+19.94%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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