Analysis: Interest Rates

BlackRock cautious on long-term US Treasuries ahead of elections

The BlackRock Investment Institute said on Monday it was cautious on long-term U.S. Treasuries ahead of the November presidential elections as investors will likely ask for more compensation to hold...

Rates: Christine draws faster than Jerome

Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank cut its key rates by 25 basis points, joining the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Canada. For its part, the Fed is likely to take its time, even if it is...

High bond yields should prompt reversal of 60/40 portfolio, says PIMCO

The prospect of bond yields remaining high for long should prompt a reversal of the typical 60/40 portfolio that holds 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, U.S. bond giant asset manager PIMCO said on...

Rates: Which rate cut?

While the timing of the first rate cut is still a matter of debate within the financial community, rates traders have long since revised their plans in the light of macroeconomic data and the...

Interest rates: A goldilocks scenario that never lasts forever

Since October 2022, stock markets have embarked on a narrow path that leaves little room for doubt. Four pillars explain the current movement: inflation on a downward slope, a return to accommodative...

Bill Gross says Trump is 'bearish' choice for bond markets

Returning Donald Trump to the presidency would be the more bearish choice for bond markets, famed bond investor Bill Gross said in an interview with The Financial Times. Gross, once the...

Interest rates: Has the risk of recession been definitively averted?

In 2022, all the media and the majority of economists were predicting the imminent onset of recession in the US, due to a particularly rapid cycle of monetary tightening. Nearly two years later, with...

Rates: To infinity and beyond

Thanks Buzz. The breach of the 4.60% mark on the US 10-year yield puts paid to our long-term scenario of an intermediate recovery before a new downward salvo. It's time to update all this and take...

In the Market: Economic surprises are messing with the market's favorite recession predictor

A bond market anomaly that has reliably predicted a U.S. recession in the past may normalize this year in a highly unusual manner. It's a worry for markets. The market signal, called a...

US bond price slide puts buyers to the test: McGeever

The latest figures showing the surprising - some would say alarming - durability of U.S. inflation are also re-focusing the spotlight on the source and strength of demand for U.S. Treasuries. ...

Interest rates: Want more?

Bond yields are approaching critical levels, which it would be wise not to overshoot if you want to keep the equity markets on track. In the meantime, if you want to know when the Fed will cut rates,...

Analysis-US bond bulls lean into latest selloff despite inflation scare

A sharp selloff in U.S. bonds so far in April is prompting some investors to consider allocating more funds to the asset class to lock in higher yields ahead of interest rate cuts by the Federal...

Rate: What a difference a week makes

The canary isn't dead yet, but he's already in respiratory distress. Doctor Benton, do we intubate or wait?

Rates: A lethal lack of harmony?

Last week, central bankers, especially in the US, made a series of outbursts that somewhat blurred their rhetoric and sowed doubts in the minds of investors. The high level of inflation now seems ...

US bond manager PIMCO sees Fed rate cuts midyear, but gradual easing

The Federal Reserve is likely to start cutting interest rates midyear but the easing cycle will be more gradual in the United States than in other developed markets, U.S. bond giant PIMCO said on...

Rates: Managing expectations

We were eagerly awaiting Friday to get the latest data about US inflation.

Interest rates: Closing the gap!

At the end of a busy week of central bank meetings of all kinds, the main thing to remember is that the US Federal Reserve played the tune expected by most investors. The program includes a first rate...

Interest rates: Knock-knock, it's inflation!

Intoxicated by the rise in equity markets and promises of future rate cuts, we thought we'd done away with inflation for good. But then, like a hiccup, inflation came back to bite investors in the...

Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say

A key indicator of an oncoming recession implied by the U.S. bond market is no longer reliable, according to nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters....