China, the world's largest copper consumer, released manufacturing PMIs for April that exceeded expectations. The official PMI came in at 50.3 points, against 50.1 expected, while the private RatingDog/S&P Global PMI, which is more representative of private and export-oriented firms, reached 52.2 points versus the 51.0 forecast, suggesting stronger industrial demand.

Beyond this cyclical improvement, demand remains supported by structural factors such as investments in power grids, renewables, and electric vehicles. In parallel, data centers are becoming a new consumption driver for the red metal. While artificial intelligence does not consume copper directly, it requires significantly denser electrical infrastructure, involving more cabling, transformers, cooling systems, distribution equipment, and internal connections.

According to S&P Global, data centers dedicated to training AI models can require approximately 47 tonnes of copper per megawatt of installed capacity, compared to 30 to 40 tonnes for conventional data centers—an increase of about 34% relative to the midpoint of that range. The same organization estimates that global copper demand could rise from approximately 28 million tonnes in 2025 to over 42 million tonnes by 2040, an increase of nearly 50%, or roughly 2.7% per year, should the needs related to grids, electrification, and new digital infrastructure be confirmed.

Faced with this rising demand, supply remains constrained by long mining development lead times and the difficulty of rapidly replacing existing deposits. Tensions are further exacerbated by current supply constraints on sulfuric acid, an input used in processing certain copper ores, whose limited availability can hamper production in some regions. The market is currently near equilibrium, but the gap could widen in the longer term, as S&P Global estimates that global production will peak at around 33 million tonnes as early as 2030.

Without an acceleration in mining investment and recycling, a potential deficit of 10 million tonnes by 2040 would leave the market facing a brutal adjustment, with higher prices serving to ration available copper and displace the least profitable uses.