MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks were in the red after Trump's address disappointed investor hopes of a prompt de-escalation to war in the Middle East, although energy stocks rose with oil prices.

War news continues to dominate financial markets, "and this is unlikely to change anytime soon ," Helaba said.

XS said o il could easily top $110 a barrel again in the near term , adding that traders seemed to be building positions in anticipation of further oil-supply disruptions following Trump's comments.

The market has yet to fully price in a full-scale Middle East escalation, and upside risks therefore outweighed downside in the near term, it added.

CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research said the U.S. was reportedly doubling its fleet of Air Force A-10 attack planes in the Middle East.

"The movement of military assets and troops to the region raises the chance of an invasion. We continue to expect the USD to increase because of its safe-haven status."

Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann said " Bond markets are heading into the Easter weekend with a sense of unease as [U.S. President] Trump's pledges to end the war soon are not echoed by Iran."

In London, miners were among the biggest fallers on dropping precious metal prices.

Stocks to Watch

Roche Holding is set to benefit from a lucrative royalty stream from Eli Lilly's Foundayo weight-loss pill, Vontobel said, estimating that would see royalties of 1.5 billion francs.

U.S. Markets:

Stocks were on course to open in the red Thursday after Trump's address to the nation.

Forex:

The dollar rose boosted by its safe-haven role and America's position as a net oil exporter.

Sterling was at risk of further declines after BOE Governor Andrew Bailey damped market expectations for a pivot towards rate rises, Commerzbank said.

Bailey told Reuters that markets were getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate rises, citing risks to growth and jobs.

"Based on Bailey's statements, we still anticipate a correction and expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year."

This could contribute to sterling falling versus the euro in coming months, it added.

ING said the pound could call if the BOE's Decision Maker Panel survey prompts markets to scale back expectations for interest-rate rises.

If the BOE survey confirms Bailey's view of limited chances of second-round effects from rising energy prices, the market could rein in rate-rise bets.

"If so, euro-sterling could make its way back to the 0.8790/8800 pounds area, where it was trading at the end of February."

There was circumstantial evidence that economic fundamentals were favoring a weaker yen as oil prices surge Dai-ichi Life Research Institute said.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields were higher, in line with Treasurys.

"After rallying sharply over the previous two sessions, market sentiment has deteriorated overnight," Deutsche Bank said.

"Trump's much anticipated address last night delivered little to nothing new on potential timelines or conditions for ending hostilities against Iran."

HSBC slightly raised its forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield for 2Q and 3Q.

Earlier in the week, HSBC shifted its U.S. rates conviction to neutral from mildly bearish.

SocGen said uncertainty in markets regarding a resolution to the Middle East war argued for being overweight in Treasurys versus its major peers.

It also remained marginally short duration in Bunds, as the ECB has opened the door to possible insurance hikes, adding that rates markets are caught between the risks of higher inflation and economic contraction, with no credible outcome from the Middle East war in sight.

It said separately that the war had disrupted the convergence narrative among eurozone government bonds, leaving the outlook binary.

JGBs fell in price terms on renewed inflation worries and a poor outcome of Japan's auction of 10-year sovereign securities.

Energy:

UOB maintained its forecast of Brent crude oil at $110 a barrel in 2Q, $100 in 3Q and $90 in 4Q as well as 1Q 2027.

ING said Trump's threat was " injecting fresh uncertainty into energy markets." adding that, "even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, a return to pre-war market conditions is likely to be slow, as upstream production restarts, logistics normalization and inventory rebuilding will take time."

Oxford Economics kept its baseline forecast for Brent to average $113 a barrel in 2Q .

Gas

European gas prices were expected to carry a higher risk premium through 2026-27 as the market increasingly reacts to the availability of individual cargoes rather than comfortable storage levels, ANZ said.

With Europe likely entering winter with smaller gas buffers, the system becomes more sensitive to cold weather, plant outages or supply disruptions, raising the odds of short-term price spikes even if average seasonal prices remain below 2022 highs.

"The Middle East conflict has turned LNG into a supply--security story again," it said, adding that the market becomes more sensitive to weather, storage and headlines, with sharper moves through shoulder seasons.

Separately it said that if disruption to gas markets persists through summer, rebalancing would likely come through weaker demand, with substitution toward more coal-fired power generation underway.

Metals:

Gold prices tumbled.

New York futures were down 4% and with silver fell 7.3%, while platinum traded 4.6% lower.

Rising inflation risks tied to higher oil prices were clouding the outlook for rate cuts, outweighing gold's safe-haven appeal.

Still, gold remained on track for a weekly gain of more than 5%, supported by a rebound earlier in the week after Trump signaled the U.S. could step back from Iran within two to three weeks.

Base Metals

Base metals were also struck by the risk-off mood in markets.

EMEA HEADLINES

TotalEnergies, Masdar Form $2.2 Billion Asia Renewables Joint Venture

TotalEnergies and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Co., also known as Masdar, have formed a $2.2 billion joint venture to combine their onshore renewable activities in nine Asian countries.

The venture will be the two companies' sole vehicle for developing and operating onshore solar, wind and battery storage projects in markets such as Azerbaijan, South Korea, Indonesia and Japan, they said Thursday.

Kremlin Enters the Chat With Russia's New Super-App

The Kremlin has struggled for years to curb internet freedoms and curtail the reach of Western tech platforms that have amassed huge user bases inside Russia. A new Russian super-app is now making that goal possible.

Max is a messaging and e-commerce platform run by tech giant VK that is expanding to offer everything from taxi-hailing services to electronic passport wallets, modeled on China's WeChat.

U.A.E. Is Revoking Visas, Stranding Iranian Residents Abroad in a Widening Crackdown

DUBAI-The United Arab Emirates has launched a broad crackdown on Iranians in the country, including canceling visas and closing institutions to protest Tehran's daily drone and missile attacks.

Several Iranian families in Dubai say they have relatives who have lived in the U.A.E. for decades whose visas were suddenly revoked, sometimes while they were traveling, leaving them unable to return.

GLOBAL NEWS

Trump Tries to Sell Americans on War in Iran

WASHINGTON-President Trump sought to reassure skeptical Americans that the war in Iran is in the national interest, arguing that the operation was necessary to decimate a regime threatening the U.S. and insisting that economic pain would be short-lived.

In a 20-minute address from the White House, his most direct sales pitch to the nation since the war began a month ago, Trump said the U.S. had succeeded on the battlefield and declared that U.S. military objectives would be completed "very shortly."

The Iran War FOMO Trade Pauses After Sending Stocks Surging

No one on Wall Street wants to be on the wrong side of a postwar rally.

The stock market climbed for the second straight day ahead of President Trump's address to the nation Wednesday evening about the Iran war. Some of the enthusiasm fizzled during his speech.

Swiss Inflation Rises to Highest Level in a Year on Jump in Oil Costs

Swiss inflation last month rose to its highest level since March last year, as the conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices upward.

Consumer prices were up 0.3% on year in March, higher than the 0.1% in February, Switzerland's statistics agency said Thursday. It was the first rise in annual inflation in four months.

Trump Expected to Overhaul Steel, Aluminum Tariffs

WASHINGTON-The Trump administration is preparing to reshape its steel and aluminum tariff regime, altering duties on finished products to help simplify compliance. The net effect of the changes could effectively raise costs for many imports.

U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Venezuela's Leader, Opening Door to Deals

The Trump administration on Wednesday lifted sanctions against Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, easing Washington's path to deepen cooperation with Caracas to expand oil output and American foreign investment.

Her removal from the sanctions list of the U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control ends prohibitions barring Americans from doing business with her at the risk of facing civil or criminal penalties.

ICC Moves Ahead With Disciplinary Proceedings Against Chief Prosecutor

Member states of the International Criminal Court voted on Wednesday to move ahead with disciplinary proceedings against Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan after receiving two reports on sexual-assault allegations facing him that have cast a cloud over the court for nearly two years, officials familiar with the vote said.

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04-02-26 0521ET