First-quarter revenue came in at 881 million euros, up 2.7% year-on-year, including 5.7% organic growth, slightly ahead of the 5.3% consensus. Excluding non-advertising revenue, which accounts for less than 10% of group sales, organic growth reached 6.6%. Digital, which now represents approximately 42% of revenue, continues to show strong momentum with organic growth of 13.1%.

'The outlook for the second quarter has, however, been clouded by persistent tensions in the Middle East, leading the group to target organic growth of around 3%, a level below market expectations but close to our estimates', noted Berenberg, which maintains its buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of 28 euros, implying upside potential of nearly 50%.

Programmatic advertising once again served as one of the primary growth drivers. This segment grew by 27.2%, a pace twice as fast as digital as a whole, and now accounts for approximately 11% of digital revenue.

For the second quarter, JCDecaux anticipates a slowdown in organic growth to around 3%, mainly due to the situation in the Middle East. Excluding this region, group growth would remain close to 5%, implying a drop of approximately 40% in Middle Eastern activity over the period. The situation remains complex, with disparities between countries and air traffic still at only about 60% of normal levels in the region.

According to Berenberg, 'the second half should benefit from several growth catalysts'. Recently won contracts, notably in Barcelona, Denver, Melbourne, and with Carmila/Carrefour, will only begin to contribute from the third quarter and could generate nearly 60 million euros in additional revenue.

'The FIFA World Cup should also provide approximately 30 million euros in additional revenue, split between June and July', added the broker, which is not modifying its forecasts for the 2026 financial year and continues to anticipate solid organic growth of 4.8% for the year.

'This scenario is based on a decline of approximately 20% in Middle Eastern activity, offset by growth of nearly 6% in the rest of the group. Furthermore, we are now assuming a broadly neutral foreign exchange impact for the year, compared to a previously estimated negative impact of 38 million euros, which supports our earnings per share forecasts for the 2026-2028 period', Berenberg concluded.

Since the beginning of the year, the stock has surged by more than 20%.