Since mid-July, the dollar index has soared by almost 5% to the point where it is now above its 200-day moving average. While the final hurdle is now just a stone's throw away, at 104.60 or 1.0760 in parallel for the euro, the technical elements are now arguing in favor of a continued rise, with the 107.10/80 zone in sight. Despite this renewed interest, the dollar's status has never been so fragile since the end of the Second World War, due to powerful headwinds.

Last week's BRICS summit welcomed six new members from next January: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and Argentina. The implicit aim of this enlargement is to reduce real or perceived dependence on Western powers - the United States in particular - and on the US dollar. It should also be noted that this bloc will include 6 of the 10 leading oil-producing countries, accounting for 43% of world production. If the BRICS manage to find a credible alternative to the dollar, for example by introducing a new currency linked to gold, this could create an upheaval in the current world order. The hegemony of the dollar could be threatened...

In the meantime, commodity currencies continue to perform poorly. The aussie has been poorly oriented since breaking 0.6600, with 0.6305 its target. The kiwi isn't doing much better: it has already rallied to 0.5905, which we can filter through the 0.5880/65 zone before considering more ambitious targets around 0.5770 or even a re-test of the October 2022 lows at 0.5563.

Lastly, the USDSEK has rallied to 10.96, which it is attempting to break through to pave the way to 11.30, while the EURSEK is also struggling to break through its previous highs at 11.90. As for the NOK, since breaking through its resistance at 10.50, the way should be clear to the June highs at 11.18.