The week perfectly captured the market's current dynamic: Wall Street kept setting new records, while European markets lost momentum. Earnings season, now well underway, drove the pace of trading sessions. Against this backdrop, the semiconductor sector remains supported by the AI boom and continues to pull indexes higher.
Weekly variations*
MSCI AC PACIFIC
249.85  +0.01%
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DOW JONES INDUST...
49,230.71  -0.44%
Chart DOW JONES INDUST...
NASDAQ 100
27,303.67  +2.37%
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GOLD
USD 4,708.87  -0.96%
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BRENT CRUDE OIL ...
USD 106.11  +9.84%
Chart BRENT CRUDE OIL ...
EURO / US DOLLAR
USD 1.17  -0.15%
Chart EURO / US DOLLAR
This week's gainers and losers
Up:

United Rentals +22.39% : Supported by strong demand for rental equipment tied to major data center construction projects, the company posted a record first quarter. Following this strong start to the year, United Rentals raised its guidance.

Texas Instruments +20.59% : A positive surprise, as is often the case, was enough to please the market. The semiconductor company reported EPS up 31% to $1.68, well above its targeted range of $1.22 to $1.48.

Applied Digital +10.94% : The digital infrastructure developer is increasing its exposure to AI. The company signed a lease agreement with a new top-tier U.S. hyperscaler. The deal is valued at roughly $7.5 billion over an estimated 15-year term.

Down:

Medpace -21.14% : Alongside results that were in line with expectations, Medpace CEO August Troendle reported another increase in project cancellations from the company’s backlog, reaching their highest level in more than a year. These cancellations mainly affected the oncology and cardiovascular segments.

Lululemon -14.04% : Hiring an executive associated with the loss of momentum at her former company may seem counterintuitive at first glance. Yet that is the bet Lululemon is making: Heidi O’Neill will succeed Calvin McDonald as CEO. While she helped revive Nike’s women’s segment, her role in the strategy pursued under John Donahoe, widely criticized for holding back the brand’s momentum, now looks like a liability that is hard to ignore.

Freddie Mac -14.83% : The U.S. company and its peer Fannie Mae will now accept mortgages evaluated using the competing credit-scoring system VantageScore 4.0. The initiative aims to lower costs for U.S. homebuyers and increase competition in the mortgage credit-scoring market, which is largely dominated by Fair Isaac.

Chart Commodities
Commodities

Energy: Oil prices moved higher again as hopes faded for a peaceful resolution between the United States and Iran. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran have stalled. Iran is demanding an end to the U.S. maritime blockade of its ports before resuming talks. In response, Donald Trump is maintaining the ceasefire but has ordered the U.S. Navy to destroy Iranian vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The continued blockage of the strait is keeping the market under pressure. Over the full week, crude prices jumped by about 10%: $104.75 for Brent and $95 for WTI. To offset the shortage of crude from the Middle East, global buyers are turning to the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported record exports of oil and refined products.

Metals: Higher energy prices, a stronger dollar, and geopolitical risk created the mix that weighed on metal prices this week. Gold posted a slight decline to $4,725. The latest tensions in the Middle East did not trigger major safe-haven buying. The precious metal is now more dependent on movements in bond yields and the dollar. A strong dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, limiting demand, while higher yields hurt gold because it does not offer any yield. In London, copper pulled back from its recent highs and traded around $13,355. Nickel rose to $18,737, reaching its highest level since January. Eramet is expected to suspend production at its Indonesian mine next month following the expiration of its mining quotas, creating some supply tension.

Agricultural products: Prices for major agricultural commodities rose this week. Broadly speaking, two main factors explain the trend: first, tensions in the Middle East are pushing up oil prices and transportation costs; second, drought in the United States is threatening yields for upcoming harvests. Wheat posted a second consecutive weekly gain. Wheat traded at 623 cents in Chicago for July 2026 contracts. Drought conditions are worsening across the U.S. Plains, limiting crop development. Corn also advanced to 465 cents. Higher oil prices are supporting corn, as expensive energy boosts demand for corn-based biofuels.

Chart Commodities
Macroeconomics

Macro: Corporate earnings are currently capturing the financial community’s attention, but the high-stakes standoff in the Middle East could quickly return to the headlines, especially if the strait remains blocked for several more weeks. Oil prices staying at elevated levels will inevitably weigh on the most dependent economies, starting with Europe. One way to illustrate this is to look at the performance of the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600: it has been unable to break above its highs for the year, while the U.S. indexes, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are trading well above theirs. It is high time the flow of goods was restored if we want to avoid a recession compounded by a food crisis. More than 30% of fertilizers, which are vital for crops, pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Without sufficient spring spreading, crop yields decline and prices rise. Let us hope this pessimistic scenario never materializes.

Crypto: Bitcoin posted its fourth straight weekly gain, rising 6% since Monday and moving back toward $80,000. Since the start of the month, BTC is up 15%. It remains down 38% from its high last October. In spot bitcoin ETFs, net inflows continued to build. This week, these exchange-traded products attracted $800 million, bringing the total to $2.6 billion over three weeks. Developments are clearly moving on the bitcoin-linked exchange-traded product front. Morgan Stanley launched its own ETF earlier this month, becoming the first U.S. bank to offer such a product alongside twelve asset managers including BlackRock and Fidelity. This week, Amundi announced the launch of a bitcoin ETP. The European asset manager is targeting assets under management of $300 million to $500 million in the product’s first year of distribution. More to come. Among other cryptocurrencies, ether (ETH) is up 2.8% since Monday, Solana (SOL) is up 3.5%, and XRP (XRP) is up 3.4%.

Historical Chart
The forces pulling and pushing the stock market are shifting: AI is setting the bullish tone, but the rest of the financial world is struggling to buy in, and even more so to keep up. The result is a strange mix that lacks some cohesion. The other major question right now is more grounded: how much pain from high oil prices can the economy tolerate? This is the backdrop for a key period for both companies and the macroeconomy.

This is the pivotal week for Q1 earnings releases, featuring Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Eli Lilly in the United States, as well as Airbus, Air Liquide, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, UBS, and Schneider in Europe. It is also a pivotal macro week, with multiple central bank rate decisions: the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Reserve Bank of Australia.

That news flow should keep us plenty busy next week. Until then, we wish you an excellent weekend.
Things to read this week
A revolution is underway in Brussels to create European championsA revolution is underway in Brussels to create European champions
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AI, Aviation, Silver: The Great Silent ShortageAI, Aviation, Silver: The Great Silent Shortage
Three markets, three points of tension, and the same underlying message: supply is faltering in the face of structural demand. From AI to aviation and precious... Read more
Taiwan is a small country. But not on the marketsTaiwan is a small country. But not on the markets
Last week, Taiwan's stockmarket capitalization briefly overtook that of the London Stock Exchange. This performance was primarily driven by the stellar gains... Read more
*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday.
The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.