MPS catalyzes banking M&A wave and drives MIB higher

(Alliance News) - The FTSE MIB turned positive at mid-session, reversing an initial intraday downward trend, with the benchmark currently trading slightly above the 50,000-point mark.

Sentiment was weighed down by reignited geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as a further deterioration in relations between Iran and Israel significantly dampened expectations of de-escalation. This suggests a stalemate in diplomatic efforts and has prompted a repricing of geopolitical risk.

On the corporate front, the banking sector was the primary driver of dispersion, with increasing focus on the domestic consolidation process. Intesa Sanpaolo showed weakness following the announcement of a competing bid for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, within an evolving competitive landscape that also involves Banco BPM.

The money market continues to price in a hawkish stance from the European Central Bank, with expectations still anchored to further rate hikes and a high probability of an initial move as early as this week's upcoming meeting.

Consequently, the FTSE MIB - as anticipated - turned higher, gaining 0.3% to 50,047.47 points, the Mid-Cap fell 0.2% to 61,447.05 points, the Small-Cap advanced 0.5% to 35,420.21 points, while Italy Growth retreated 0.3% to 9,144.35 points.

London's FTSE 100 is in fractional red, the CAC 40 in Paris is down 0.5%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt is retreating 0.6%.

Returning to Milan, on Piazza Affari's blue-chip index, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, at the heart of the banking M&A frenzy, climbed to the top with double-digit gains, rising 14% with over 77 million shares already traded.

Banco BPM - down 1.2% - has proposed a merger of equals to MPS to create Italy's second-largest banking group. The transaction would generate synergies exceeding EUR1.1 billion, a market capitalization over EUR50 billion, a CET1 ratio of 15%, and a steady-state net profit of approximately EUR6 billion, with estimated value creation of at least EUR5.5 billion.

Slipping to the bottom of the main list - with a 4% loss - is Intesa Sanpaolo, which launched an exchange offer (OPAS) for MPS, offering 16 of its own shares for every 10 shares tendered plus EUR1 in cash, representing premiums of up to 18.7%.

The deal includes the sale of 635 MPS branches to Unipol - up 0.4% - and targets a net profit of over EUR16 billion in 2029, with annual synergies of EUR2.9 billion.

Buying interest was seen in FinecoBank - in the green by 0.8% - which announced on Monday that net inflows for May reached EUR1.54 billion, a 17% increase compared to EUR1.31 billion in the same month of 2025, bringing the total for the first five months of the year to EUR7.49 billion from EUR5.78 billion, a 30% year-on-year growth.

DiaSorin, meanwhile, fell 2.7% to EUR69.48 per share, as the company continues its buyback operations. On Friday, it disclosed the purchase of 30,246 treasury shares at an average price of EUR66.465 for a total value of EUR2.0 million.

On the Mid-Cap, Safilo Group performed well, advancing 4.6%. The group announced on Monday that its subsidiary Safilo has mandated Kepler Cheuvreux to launch a share buyback program for up to 10 million ordinary shares, representing approximately 2.5% of the share capital, for a maximum total value of EUR20 million.

Caltagirone gained 4.1%, rebounding after five consecutive sessions of declines.

Carel Industries, however, fell 3.5%, following a 4.3% loss in the previous session.

Ascopiave is down 2.2% after finishing Friday evening up 0.8%. The stock is seeing above-average volume, with over 250,000 shares changing hands compared to a three-month daily average of 119,000.

On the Small-Cap, a strong bullish candle for Trevi Finanziaria Industriale, which rose over 12%. On Friday, the company announced that Consob had approved Trevifin's prospectus for a rights issue of up to EUR100 million.

Aedes advanced 6.2% to EUR0.80 per share, looking to break a four-session losing streak.

Caltagirone Editore climbed 6.0% to EUR2.30 per share. Notably, the stock hit a new 52-week high of EUR2.40 per share during trading.

Aeffe, meanwhile, fell 3.8% to EUR0.14 per share, hitting a 52-week low of EUR0.13 per share during the session.

Among SMEs, Energy Time moved forward by 5.7% to EUR6.50 per share, reaching a new 52-week high.

Fope rose 5.6% to EUR49.60, also hitting a new 52-week high.

Selling pressure hit H-Farm - down 1.9% - which on Friday defined the terms and timetable for the rights issue approved by the board of directors on May 29, for a maximum amount of EUR7.9 million.

Dedem fell 5.3%, following a 2.0% gain on Friday evening, with the price hovering around EUR3.96 per share.

In New York on Friday evening, the Dow lost 1.4%, the Nasdaq retreated 4.2%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.6%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD1.1513 from USD1.1534 on Friday evening, while the pound is trading at USD1.3325 from USD1.3358 on Friday evening.

Among commodities, Brent is trading at USD96.97 per barrel from USD93.43 per barrel on Friday evening, while gold is worth USD4,291.24 per ounce from USD4,340.09 per ounce at Friday's close.

Monday's macroeconomic calendar includes the 3-month and 6-month Treasury Bill auctions in the US at 1730 CEST.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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