Order books on the sell side; rates to remain "higher for longer"

(Alliance News) - European stock markets started the week in negative territory as risk sentiment deteriorated following a fresh escalation of tensions with Iran.

Conflict dynamics worsened further over the weekend. U.S. naval forces intercepted and seized control of an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman following an attempted breach of the maritime blockade, while Iran struck a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite signals from the U.S. administration regarding potential talks scheduled in Islamabad, Tehran rejected participation, citing the continuation of naval operations and the U.S. blockade.

The escalation was swiftly reflected in energy markets, with a fresh rally in crude oil reigniting inflationary pressures and upside risks to the macroeconomic outlook. Specifically, the energy price shock further complicates the disinflationary path and reinforces the central banks' "higher for longer" interest rate narrative.

In this context, the market continues to price in a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve in the short term, with expectations centered on rates remaining unchanged throughout the year in the absence of a significant improvement in inflation dynamics and a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium linked to energy.

Consequently, the MIB posted a 1.4% loss, falling to 48,182.28 points.

Among other European markets, the CAC 40 retreated by 1.3%, the DAX 40 shed 1.5%, while the FTSE 100 declined by 0.6%.

On Piazza Affari's secondary boards, the Mid-Cap is down 1.0% at EUR58,654.96, the Small-Cap fell 0.5% to 35,378.13, while Italy Growth slipped 0.3% to 8,736.39.

On the MIB, Eni advanced, gaining 2.9% to EUR22.40 per share in the wake of rising crude prices, following a 7.0% loss on Friday evening.

Saipem - up 1.8% - announced on Monday that it has signed the main contract with Eni Industrial Evolution for the construction of the new Priolo biorefinery in Sicily, a project announced on February 3 by Eni Spa and Q8 Italia. The contract, with a total value of approximately EUR700 million upon completion, sets a construction deadline for the end of 2028 and covers Engineering, Procurement, and Construction activities.

UniCredit - down 1.1% - announced on Monday that it will outline today the details of an approach aimed at value creation for Commerzbank AG. "UniCredit sees significant potential for growth and risk reduction for Commerzbank, additional to the current 'Momentum' strategy, capable of generating further value," the Italian bank stated.

"Our assessments are based on public domain information and derive from the application of UniCredit Unlocked's proven expertise, which has produced excellent results and a highly convincing long-term sustainable model, both at the group level and in Germany, achieved with low execution risk."

Poste Italiane retreated 0.6% to EUR22.33 per share. Notably, Barclays cut its price target on the stock to EUR21.60 from EUR22.00.

In the mid-cap segment, BFF Bank is stepping back 5.6% to EUR1.95 per share, following a 9.5% gain in the previous session.

Webuild is retreating 2.2% to EUR2.63 per share, partly due to profit-taking after a strong bullish run.

Interpump Group - down 1.2% - announced on Monday that it purchased 143,000 of its own ordinary shares between April 13 and 17. The shares were acquired at an average unit price of EUR37.7189, for a total consideration of EUR5.4 million.

Italmobiliare - in the red by 1.5% - announced on Friday that it acquired 11,732 of its own ordinary shares between April 13 and 17. The shares were purchased at an average unit price of EUR28.9475, for a total consideration of EUR339,612.35.

OVS retreated 0.3% to EUR5.20 per share. The company announced late last week that it closed the fiscal year ending January 31 with an adjusted net profit of EUR89.4 million, up 15% from EUR77.9 million the previous year. Furthermore, the board of directors resolved to propose a dividend distribution of EUR0.14 per share to the shareholders' meeting, a 27% increase compared to the previous EUR0.11 in 2024.

On the Small-Cap index, Ratti is stepping back 3.2% after two bullish sessions. The stock - which has not paid a dividend since 2023 - saw its price move into the EUR1.22 area.

Zucchi rose 5.8%, following a 1.6% decline on Friday evening, with the price hovering around EUR0.64 per share.

The board of directors of Class Editori - up 2.1% - approved the 2025 results on Friday, reporting consolidated revenues of EUR80.4 million, down from EUR86.6 million in 2024, which included non-recurring income of EUR7.2 million. Net of extraordinary items, revenues remained substantially stable at EUR79.2 million. Operating costs fell to EUR72.4 million from EUR74.5 million.

The board of Seri Industrial - up 3.9% - approved the 2025 fiscal year accounts over the weekend, closing with a consolidated profit of EUR13.6 million compared to EUR24.6 million in 2024. Adjusted consolidated profit stood at EUR15.4 million, an increase of EUR18.6 million compared to 2024.

Among SMEs, Estrima advanced 4.5% to EUR0.10 per share, following a 6.5% loss in the previous session.

Lemon Sistemi rose 3.6%, following a 1.5% gain in the previous session.

On the downside, Adventure shed 4.9% to EUR23.20 per share after two flat sessions.

Dedem retreated 4.0% to EUR5.95. The stock - which reports a market cap of approximately EUR47 million - has recorded a gain of over 27% since the beginning of 2026.

In New York, the Dow Jones closed Friday up 1.8%, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, while the S&P 500 concluded with a 1.3% gain.

In Asia, the Nikkei advanced 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite picked up 0.8% and the Hang Seng rose 0.7%.

On the currency front, the euro is trading at USD1.1752 from USD1.1807 on Friday evening, while the pound is trading at USD1.3487 from USD1.3559 on Friday evening.

Among commodities, as mentioned, Brent crude advanced to USD95.05 per barrel from USD88.90 per barrel on Friday evening, while gold is valued at USD4,792.80 per ounce from USD4,872.35 per ounce on Monday evening.

Monday's macroeconomic calendar features a three- and six-month Treasury bill auction in the U.S. at 1730 CEST.

On the corporate calendar, results are expected from OPS Italia, Risanamento, and Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti.

By Maurizio Carta, Alliance News reporter

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