Serious alternative indicators: when data takes over
Certain unconventional signals rely on tangible data, sometimes even more reactive than official statistics.
Cardboard, a discreet thermometer of consumption
Whether it involves shipping pallets or final packaging, 75% to 80% of products circulate in packaging. The sector follows a simple rule: its activity is the exact mirror of the volume of goods traded. If consumption increases, packaging production accelerates. This correlation is such that Alan Greenspan, former Fed Chairman, relied on corrugated cardboard shipments to assess the country's economic health in real time.
And the signal has recently deteriorated: in H3 2025, several plant closures cut American production by approximately 9%. A few months later, the economic slowdown materialized. Manufacturers had already priced in the decline in demand linked to trade tensions and customs duties.
Satellites, macroeconomics seen from the sky
Satellite imagery has become a full-fledged analytical tool.
The IMF has shown that nighttime light intensity is correlated with GDP growth: the more a territory develops, the more it lights up. Conversely, conflict zones darken, as illustrated by images of Ukraine before and after the war.
(Nasa Black Marble Nighttime 15/02/2021 (top) - 21/03/2026 (bottom) of Ukrainian territory)
On a micro scale, this data also allows for the anticipation of corporate performance. As early as 2010, UBS analyzed Walmart parking lots to estimate store footfall. Other players, such as QuantCube, now track maritime traffic or global agricultural production via satellite.
Here, we are clearly in the realm of structured alternative data, exploited by professionals.
More exotic indicators: between intuition and storytelling
Alongside these rigorous approaches, other indicators fall more under empirical observation - sometimes relevant, often debatable.
The Skyscraper index, a symbol of excess
Popularized in 1999, this indicator postulates that the construction of the tallest skyscrapers coincides with the end of economic cycles. The idea: the most ambitious projects emerge at the peak of euphoria. Historically, several height records have preceded crises. But causality remains fragile: it is more of an enlightening coincidence than a predictive tool.
Underwear and lipstick: consumer psychology
Another curiosity popularized by Greenspan: sales of men's underwear. In times of economic tension, these purchases are said to be postponed, signaling a decline in household morale (and hygiene?).
(Comparison between the University of Michigan confidence index and Google Trends data for the "men's underwear" category)
Conversely, the famous lipstick index suggests that cosmetics sales increase during crises, as consumers fall back on affordable pleasures. The origin dates back to Leonard Lauder, son of Estee Lauder, who noticed that during financial stress, lipstick sales tend to rise. Cosmetics act as an affordable substitute for luxury. Although it is sharply criticized by economists who question the reliability of the index, it continues to be defended by some marketing professionals.
These indicators say something, but primarily about psychology, not the economic cycle itself. Their reliability remains limited and highly dependent on context (Covid, for example, completely invalidated the lipstick index).
The Pizza Index, or delivery-style geopolitics
Finally, it is hard not to mention the Pizza Index. Theorized in the 1990s, this index is based on a simple observation: the influx at pizzerias located near the Pentagon. A surge in orders signals a crisis night in the making.
The index reportedly worked recently, during the strikes targeting Iran.
Data from satellites or logistics falls under advanced analysis, increasingly used by professionals. More "folklore" indicators (pizza, underwear, lipstick) are interesting... but mainly as behavioral illustrations. They do not replace fundamentals. At best, they provide complementary insight. At worst, they serve to tell a good story after the fact.
