Despite an acceleration in the third quarter, the figures unveiled by Michelin on Tuesday evening fell short of expectations. The stock's punishment on the market was immediate, with shares plunging 5.99% to 31.26, one of the CAC 40's steepest declines.
The tiremaker reported revenue of 19.2bn for the first nine months of the year, up 1% at constant exchange rates and 0.1% on a like-for-like basis and at constant exchange rates. Activity accelerated in the third quarter alone.
Since the beginning of the year, performance reflects a 0.8% decline in tire volumes, mainly due to weak original-equipment sales. It also reflects a positive price-mix effect of 1.1%, including a 1.6% mix effect driven by the move upmarket and the Michelin brand. Finally, the scope effect contributed 0.9% following the consolidation of Cooley Group, Flexitallic and TecTech, while currency effects weighed by 1.6% due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar in the first half.
Michelin confirmed its full-year targets and is aiming for growth in operating income from the sectors at constant exchange rates and scope compared with 2025, as well as free cash flow before M&A transactions of more than 1.6bn.
Jefferies and Citi remain bullish
According to Jefferies, revenue rose 3.9%, compared with consensus of 4.9%, with the gap attributable to volumes. Analysts believe the quarterly release was slightly negative, with weaker volumes, but they also consider current expectations too low. The buy recommendation remains unchanged, with a price target of 40, representing 20% upside.
At Citi, analysts described the third quarter as below expectations, also due to weaker volumes, and noted that they had already expected the group to confirm its full-year targets. For Citi, the main issue was volumes and Michelin's ability, for the first time in years, to report a positive contribution from all components of the change in revenue. The firm's rating on the stock is also buy, with a price target of 39.
Compagnie Générale des Etablissements Michelin is one of the world leaders in manufacturing and marketing of tires. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- sale and distribution of tires: mainly replacement tires, long-distance transport tires, specialty tires (for agricultural and civil engineering machinery, aircraft, etc.) and original equipment tires for passenger cars and two-wheels;
- development of connected solutions: offers adapted to the new economic, human and environmental challenges of fleet managers and other public or private mobility players, offers to accompany travel and journeys (Michelin and Robert Parker gastronomic guides, tourist guides and applications such as ViaMichelin);
- development of polymer composite solutions: high-tech solutions in the fields of seals, belts and technical fabrics, developed thanks to Michelin's unique expertise in the physics and chemistry of materials, and aimed at a variety of sectors such as mobility, construction, aeronautics, low-carbon energies and healthcare.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (9.8%), Europe (27.3%), Mexico and North America (36.7%) and other (26.2%).
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