The US investment bank highlights the arrival of Thierry Delaporte as CEO on November 10. As the company's first-ever external CEO, he brings a fresh perspective and the impetus for change to capitalize on a favorable sector environment. Analysts note that his appointment last October marked an inflection point after two years of valuation derating. Delaporte's initial actions and communications suggest a strong mandate for change, setting the stage for a turnaround while the stock trades at trough multiples.

First milestone: H1 results

Jefferies is focusing on the first-half results, scheduled for April 10, and an investor day expected before the summer break. These two events should serve to "reset expectations," according to analysts. While acknowledging that structural changes take time, they anticipate a gradual recovery driven by top-line growth. The US investment bank forecasts organic growth exceeding 4% by fiscal year 2029. Profitability is expected to reflect a short-term investment phase before operating leverage gradually materializes, returning margins to 2025 levels (adjusted EBIT margin of 4.7% in 2029).

A six-point recipe for success

According to Jefferies, Thierry Delaporte will leverage his fresh perspective and board support to drive change. Analysts have identified six key pillars for success: management, culture and execution, new contract wins, North America, portfolio strategy, and capital allocation. Early moves suggest that significant shifts are already underway.

Three valuation scenarios

In its base case, Jefferies raised multiples toward their historical average (approximately 13x 2027 P/E). Fiscal year 2027 is expected to be a transition year; as growth accelerates and operating leverage kicks in, target multiples imply a 2028 EV/EBIT of 10.5x and a P/E of approximately 11.7x.

In a bear case, Jefferies applies a P/E of roughly 9x to its 2027 downside adjusted EPS estimate (approx. 8.5x in 2028), representing a 30% discount to the historical average and implying a value of 35 euros.

Finally, in a bull case, analysts apply a P/E of approximately 16x to their 2027 upside adjusted EPS scenario, as the market prices in a successful turnaround and accelerating new business wins. This corresponds to a 2028 P/E of roughly 13.5x, or a value of 70 euros.