By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for July delivery rose 1.1% to $6.08 1/4 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Thursday, as the outlook for world supply and demand appears to have shifted towards smaller supplies.
--Soybeans for July delivery fell 0.4% to $11.78 3/4 a bushel.
--Corn for July delivery fell 0.6% to $4.57 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Tightening the Belt: The global supply and demand picture for wheat is tightening, Teucrium Trading's Jake Hanley said. In a note, Hanley said that wheat supplies are taking a hit from higher fertilizer costs, and may shrink more if the climate shifts to El Niño this summer. A drawdown in projections from the International Grain Council for wheat supports this idea, he said. "We don't see [these] levels as catastrophic on their own," he said. "Yet, the direction matters, and every recent revision is pointing one way: toward larger stock draw-downs."
Two Sides of the Same Coin: Corn and soybean futures fell throughout the day as analysts mull the effect of wet weather in the U.S. Corn Belt. "This current week will be viewed in 2 different pathways," Futures International's Jason Snow said of in a note. One is that rainfall is preventing farmers from doing major fieldwork, while the other is that, at the same time, the rains are giving soil moisture a boost. "I am in the camp that the U.S. farmer welcomes these rains and that, in the long term view and from history, that rains in April create a more bearish bent to grains than they do bullish," said Snow
INSIGHT
Paradigm Shift: Domestic demand for soybeans in the U.S. is undergoing a change, StoneX said in a note. The bolstering of soybean crushing, as illustrated by NOPA's latest report, is shifting the market away from being reliant on export demand. "Crush margins and soybean oil demand [are] playing a more central role in market direction," analysts with the firm said. NOPA reports that for March, U.S. soybean crush reached 226.2 million bushels, the highest recorded level ever for that month, and the second-highest for any month on record. Soybean crushing is up 13% so far this year from 2025.
Danger Zone: Areas of extreme drought in states including Colorado, Nebraska, and Arkansas grew in the past week, according to data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Areas of the Corn Belt are seeing improving moisture with southern Iowa and northern Illinois both moving out of abnormal dryness, the lowest category of moisture deficiency measured by the Drought Monitor. The Agriculture Department's weekly Crop Progress reports have yet to begin assessing crop health for corn and soybeans, with only 5% of the corn crop and 6% of the soybean crop planted as of last week.
Low Level: Export sales of U.S. wheat and soybeans landed on the low end of analyst forecasts for the week, according to the USDA. Wheat export sales for the week ended April 9 totaled 231,300 metric tons across the 2025/26 and 2026/27 marketing years, while soybeans totaled 247,900 tons in 2025/26--a marketing-year low, according to the USDA. Both totals landed at the bottom end of expectations from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week.
AHEAD
--The USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed report at 3 p.m. ET Friday.
--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.
--The USDA will release its weekly Grain Export Inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.
--The USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
04-16-26 1534ET
